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Covid-19: Steady decline in positivity rate indicate ebb of third wave

[ad_1] The Omicron driven Covid-19 third wave has started its downward journey. After witnessing 10 days of steady decline in cases registered daily, the positivity rate also has begun to fall consistently. While the last two days also saw in dip in weekly positivity rate from 16.84 per cent to 15.63 per cent. The weekly positivity has gone down  for the first time in more than a month. The positivity rate measures the proportion of people who test positive  out of the total number  who got tested. Positivity rate is an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading. It measures the number of people who tested positive to the total number of people who got tested. In the third wave, however, many symptomatic people did not get them tested due to the mild nature of the  disease and quicker recovery time. A sizeable population also used the home-testing kit instead of RT-PCR from the lab and hence were not included in official count. The weekly positivity rate in India was around 0.4 per cent by the third week of December before the number of cases saw a sudden surge due to the highly contagious Omicron variant. The positivity rate rose constantly until Friday when it observed a fall for the first time since last week of December. Currently, the positivity rate is more than 15 per cent, still higher than the positivity rate of the entire duration of the pandemic since February 2020 to now, which is lower than six per cent. During the second wave the weekly positivity rate shot to 22 per cent for a brief period. According to Health Ministry data, at present the weekly positivity rate of 388 out of 734 districts in India is more than 10 per cent and for another 144 districts the positivity rate is below 5 and 10 per cent. The remaining 202 districts have a positivity rate less than five per cent. In Kerala, most of the districts had a positivity rate above 40 per cent , Four districts_ Kottayam, Ernakulum, Thiruvananthapuram and Idukki had a positivity rate above 50 per cent. Kerala with more 50,000 new cases for the last five days now, is in the most alarmed state. In one district each in Arunachal Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, the positivity rate is more than 50 per cent. Other south Indian states like Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh are also witnessing a huge number of cases. But Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to have already crossed its peak and are in their downward journey now. [ad_2] Source link

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Economic Survey 2022 Live Updates: FM Sitharaman to present full report card of India’s economy of last year

[ad_1] Economic Survey 2022 India Live Updates: Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Economic Survey 2022 in the Lok Sabha today, 31 January 2022. The Union Finance Ministry is expected to release the single volume Economic Survey for 2021-22. This will also be chief economic adviser V Anantha Nageswaran’s first Economic Survey, who took charge last Friday. This year’s Economic Survey has been prepared by the principal economic adviser and other officials as the post remained vacant following Krishnamurthy Subramaniam’s term that ended in December, due to which the 2021-22 Economic Survey might get back to its one-volume format this year. [ad_2] Source link

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Nifty to remain volatile ahead of Budget 2022, Bank Nifty looks positive; Reliance, SBI top money-making bets

[ad_1] By Dharmesh Shah  Equity benchmarks extended correction over the second consecutive week amid elevated global volatility. The Nifty skidded 2.9% to end the truncated week at 17102. Sectorally, financials, auto and PSU outshone while IT, metal, realty underperformed. Technical Outlook The index started the expiry week on a negative note and drifted southward in the initial part of the week. However, despite a rise in global volatility supportive efforts emerged from the key support threshold of 16800 that helped Nifty to recover some of its intraweek losses. The weekly price action formed a bear candle with lower shadow, highlighting buying demand at elevated support base.Going ahead, we expect volatility to remain elevated ahead of the Union Budget. Thus, key thing to monitor in the next week is that, Nifty holding above 16800 post Union Budget 2022 amid oversold condition would open the doors for technical pullback towards 17600 as it is confluence of:a) 50% retracement of recent corrective phase (18350-16836)b) last week’s high is placed at 17599Our key observations are as follows:a) Time wise, since May 2020 index has not closed negative for more than two successive weeks. In current context, with two weeks of losses behind us, index is poised for a technical pullback in line with past 22-month rhythmb) Despite elevated global volatility, Nifty managed to hold the key support of 16800. Thus, only a decisive close below 16800 would lead to extended correctionc) The Bank Nifty has been outperforming the benchmark Nifty since the beginning of this year and also within the ongoing corrective phase, highlighting inherent strength. We believe, a revived traction in banking stock would drive Nifty higher as Bank Nifty carries 36% weightage in Nifty          Sectorally, BFSI, PSU, Capital goods and Infra, Auto to remain in focus while IT sector is oversold and poised for technical pull backIn large caps we like Reliance Industries Ltd, State Bank of India (SBI), Axis Bank, Tata Motors, Larsen & Toubro, Container Corporation, Titan Company while in Midcaps we prefer Bank of Baroda, KNR Constructions, Tata Power, Bharat Dynamics, National Aluminium, Thermax, Greaves Cotton, Gokaldas ExportStructurally, on multiple occasions Nifty has managed to hold 100 days EMA (on weekly closing basis), since June 2020. In the current scenario as well index is sustaining above it. Thereby, we believe current weeks low of 16800 would act as key support as it coincides with 80% retracement of December-January rally (16410-18350), placed at 16798The broader market indices are forming a higher base in the vicinity of 100 days EMA. We believe, the extended consolidation from hereon would make broader market healthy Bank Nifty Outlook The Bank Nifty traded with high volatility as it oscillated in a 2000 points range to close the week marginally higher by 0.3%. The PSU banking stocks outperformed as the Nifty PSU bank index closed higher by ~7% on a weekly basis. The weekly price action formed a high wave candle with long shadows in either direction signaling consolidation after last week’s corrective decline. Bank Nifty since the start of the CY22 has been relatively outperforming the Nifty which we expect to continue in the coming weeks.Going ahead, we expect the index to maintain positive bias and test its current month high of 38850 levels in the coming weeks. Volatility is expected to be elevated around Union Budget 2022The index on Friday’s session witnessed profit booking after retracing 80% of its last eight sessions decline (38855-36375) in just three session signaling an overall positive biasThe index has immediate support at the 36000-36500 levels being the 50% retracement of the previous rally (34018-38855) and the value of the rising 200 days SMA placed at 36090 levelsBank Nifty/Nifty ratio chart has started forming higher high-low in weekly time frame and is seen reversing from last one year falling channel highlighting resumption of Bank Nifty outperformance in relative to Nifty Among the oscillators the weekly 14 periods RSI is forming base above its nine periods average thus validates positive bias in the index  (Dharmesh Shah is the Head – Technical at ICICI Direct. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.) ICICI Securities Limited is a SEBI registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000990. It is confirmed that the Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 21/01/2022 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest. I-Sec or its associates might have received any compensation towards merchant banking/ broking services from the subject companies mentioned as clients in preceding 12 months. [ad_2] Source link

Nifty to remain volatile ahead of Budget 2022, Bank Nifty looks positive; Reliance, SBI top money-making bets Read More »

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Maruti Suzuki Rating: Buy- Results show better times lie ahead for company

[ad_1] MSIL’s Q3 EBITDA fell 30% y-o-y but rose 82% q-o-q (5% above JEFe). Ebitda margin improved 250bps q-o-q after four consecutive quarters of decline. We see better times for MSIL ahead given strong demand recovery, easing chip constraints, input cost pressures behind, and a product cycle likely around the corner. MSIL’s commentary was positive on all the above parameters. Our FY23-24 EPS is 19-30% above consensus. We retain Buy with Rs 10,500 PT (earlier Rs 9,250). Sequential improvement in Q3: MSIL’s Q3 volumes were down 13% y-o-y but rose 13% q-o-q as chip shortage started to ease. Gross margin improved 50bps q-o-q as price hikes and lower discounts more than offset the incremental input cost pressures. This, along with better operating leverage, drove 250bps q-o-q expansion in Ebitda margin to 6.7% — the first sequential improvement after four consecutive quarters of decline. Ebitda fell 30% y-o-y but rose 82% q-o-q; Ebitda/vehicle was up 61% q-o-q to Rs 36K. Net profit was 2.1x q-o-q (down 48% y-o-y) and was in line with JEFe. Improving volume outlook: Indian PV demand is recovering well amid the COVID waves, and we expect industry to grow 12%/24%/14% in FY22/FY23/ FY24. MSIL has 264K order book, about 1.5 month of volumes on our FY23 estimate. Industry channel stocks were down to just 8-10 days in Dec. vs normal level of 30-40 days. Chip constraints are easing and MSIL expects Q4 to be better than Q3. Its 9MFY22 exports are ~2.2x of 9MFY20, led by expansion in Africa utilising Toyota’s distribution network, and MSIL believes the improvement is sustainable. Margins bottomed out: After a sharp year-long rally, steel prices have weakened amid growth and property sector concerns in China; precious metals are also down 18-44% from May 2021 peak. We believe the peak of commodity cost pressures for autos is behind, while continued price hikes and operating leverage benefit should drive better margins ahead. We factor in MSIL’s Ebitda margin expanding to 12% in FY23-24, in line with long-term average. SUV launches key: MSIL’s retail market share has slipped from 49% in FY21 to 43% in 9MFY22 on weaker SUV presence and chip shortages. While MSIL shares limited details on product pipeline, the company said that its portfolio should strengthen in the coming year, and it has a strong focus on mid-priced SUVs where it has a weaker presence. We have assumed one SUV launch each in 2022 and 2023 in our estimates. MSIL’s strong CNG focus is a tailwind amid increasing CNG availability and rising petrol prices. New lower-priced SUV launches by competitors, such as Tata Punch, and Tata’s entry into CNG pose risks though. Time to Buy: We cut FY22 EPS by a slight 4% on lower financial income, but we broadly maintain our FY23-24 estimates. We expect volumes to rise 39% over FY22-24, which along with strong margin expansion, should drive more than doubling of Ebitda and trebling of EPS over the next two years. Its 26x FY23e PE is not cheap, but valuations should sustain amid strong volume and earnings outlook. We rate Buy with a Rs 10,500 PT based on 28x Sep-23e PE. On 3-5 year view, MSIL’s electrification strategy would be key for its franchise. [ad_2] Source link

Maruti Suzuki Rating: Buy- Results show better times lie ahead for company Read More »

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