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Bond yields foretold housing and economic recovery

[ad_1] The recent action in the 10-year bond yield has puzzled many people, but it looks wonderful to me as it shows that the U.S. economy is leading the world out of the recession. When I wrote the America Is Back economic model on April 7, 2020, the bond market was already signaling that the economy and housing would be ok. In addition to the bond market yield action, responsible lending post-2010 gave me confidence that forbearance was not going to be the negative issue that many had hoped for. I coined the term forbearance crash bros last year to show that people who screamed that housing would crash in 2020 simply weren’t equipped to talk about housing economics in 2020 and 2021. While lending standards were never tight in American in the 21st century, they were very responsible post-2010. On Friday, Black Knight reported that the number of loans in forbearance are on the verge of falling below 2 million. Roughly one year from the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S., the number of loans in forbearance programs has fallen by more than half, going from near 5 million to 2 million loans. The number of loans in forbearance peaked early in the crisis and has fallen steadily since late June of 2020, as Americans regained jobs lost due to the pandemic. The continual decline in the number of loans in these programs may have surprised some people who have been predicting a flood of foreclosures coming onto the market and a subsequent massive decline in home prices once the forbearance programs end. More on the convoluted thinking by the so-called “forbearance crash bros” can be found here. Loans in forbearance keep falling This content is exclusively for HW+ members. Start an HW+ Membership now for less than $1 a day. Your HW+ Membership includes: Unlimited access to HW+ articles and analysis Exclusive access to the HW+ Slack community and virtual events HousingWire Magazine delivered to your home or office Become a member today Already a member? log in The post Bond yields foretold housing and economic recovery appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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Wholesale e-Commerce Platform Boxed to Merge with Seven Oaks SPAC

[ad_1] The post Wholesale e-Commerce Platform Boxed to Merge with Seven Oaks SPAC appeared first on Millennial Money. The COVID-19 pandemic drove a surge in demand last year for delivery services as consumers ordered items from the safety of their homes. That boosted Boxed, a wholesale e-commerce platform that announced on Monday that it is merging with special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Seven Oaks Acquisition (NASDAQ: SVOK).  The SPAC market has cooled off in recent months. It used to be that SPAC stocks would jump once a definitive agreement was reached, but Seven Oaks stock barely budged and is still trading below its $10 net asset value (NAV). This suggests investors aren’t particularly excited about the deal. The business of Boxed The company specializes in selling consumable items in bulk at wholesale prices to both consumers and businesses alike. Think of it like an online version of Costco (NASDAQ: COST), but without the membership fees. The company offers a wide variety of categories, including home essentials and groceries as well as office supplies. The platform also incorporates other services such as ads and a software-as-a-service (SaaS) subscription offering for merchants.  Boxed says that its typical consumer is a household that lives far from a Costco, with an average order value of approximately $96. Business customers, which are usually corporations or small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), expectedly spend more with an average order value of around $198. There were 452,000 active customers in 2020 that collectively bought up $158 million in gross merchandise value (GMV) last year. On the business-to-business (B2B) side of the business, there were 24,000 active customers in 2019 that generated $35 million in GMV. In contrast to the business-to-consumer (B2C) segment, B2B took a hit during the pandemic as retail sales declined. Boxed is optimistic that B2B is poised to rebound as vaccines help get the virus under control in the United States. Total revenue in 2020 was $187 million, and additional monetization initiatives are still in the early innings. Just $12 million in SaaS revenue is contracted for 2021, and advertising technology revenue is currently less than 1% of sales. Boxed is forecasting that it can grow its top line to over $1 billion by 2026, predicated on the goal of expanding market share in the $100 billion market for online groceries in the United States. SaaS revenue is expected to reach $106 million in 2026. A modest valuation Many SPAC deals have been criticized for granting lofty valuations to the target company, oftentimes billions of dollars. Boxed has fetched a post-money equity valuation of $887 million, which seems more reasonable than some of the other blockbuster deals that investors have balked at. Seven Oaks has roughly $259 million in cash in its trust account, and the PIPE (private investment in public equity) will add another $120 million to the transaction. The latter figure includes $32.5 million in stock and $87.5 million in convertible notes being sold to institutional investors such as Brigade Capital and Avanda Investment Management. Those bonds will have a conversion price of $12 and mature in five years. Software intelligence company Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) is the main PIPE investor buying stock, agreeing to invest $20 million as part of a subscription agreement with Seven Oaks. Palantir has been quite active in the SPAC market. The merger is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Pick Like A Pro Where to invest $500 right now Lots of new investors take chances on long shots instead of buying shares of great companies. I prefer businesses like Amazon, Netflix, and Apple — they’re all on my best stocks for beginners list. There’s a company that “called” these businesses long before they hit it big. They first recommended Netflix in 2004 at $1.85 per share, Amazon in 2002 at $15.31 per share, and Apple back in the iPod Shuffle era at $4.97 per share. Take a look where they are now. That company: The Motley Fool. For people ready to make investing part of their strategy for financial freedom, take a look at The Motley Fool’s flagship investing service, Stock Advisor. They just announced their top 10 “best buys now” across the entire stock market. Whether you’re starting with $100, $500, or more, you should check out the full details. Email Address Continue Also opt-in to receive Millennial Money! It’s our newsletter devoted to helping you achieve financial freedom. That means you’ll receive new stock ideas, our favorite side hustles, and much more every single week! By submitting your email address, you consent to us keeping you informed about updates to our website and about other products and services that we think might interest you. You can unsubscribe at any time. Please read our Privacy Statement and Terms & Conditions. Click here to learn more .tmfsa-text-widget .ecap-widget { padding: 0 !important; border-left: 0 !important; } The post Wholesale e-Commerce Platform Boxed to Merge with Seven Oaks SPAC appeared first on Millennial Money. [ad_2] Source link

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Finding Peace in the Midst of Chaos

[ad_1] If you were to drop by our home on any given day right now, you’d likely find that there are dishes in the sink, crumbs on the counter, and baby toys on the floor. My bed is probably unmade. I might not be out of my PJs yet. And it may smell like a very recent poopy diaper. I’ll be holding a baby or running after a toddler. I will invariably need to leave the room multiple times to change a diaper or make a bottle or try to soothe a little one who is fussy. There will likely be teens coming and going — some I birthed, some who are just hanging out at our house for the day or spending the night (the perk of having an extroverted teen: you never know who they will have invited over!). I might look a little tired — since I haven’t slept through the night in over a year. And my kids will most definitely be asking a few times what they can have for a snack — and I might be telling them that there’s cereal to eat, but don’t eat all of it up since that’s what we’re having for dinner, too.  My hospitality muscle has grown far beyond what I believed I was capable of. My heart has been beautifully broken and expanded. And I’ve gotten to see need in our community in an up close and personal way… and my priorities have shifted in a pretty seismic way as a result. I can’t go back to living in a safe and sterile bubble anymore, shielded from the needs and brokenness… and I have no desire to. Some day, I might have a clean room, clean bathroom, and get an unbroken night’s sleep all on the same day again. But for now, I get to see God’s faithfulness and goodness and grace show up for me each and every day — in the midst of the messes and my weakness. Yes, we’ve traded in a quieter, calmer, more organized life for one that might look and seem a little (or a lot!) chaotic and loud… and yet, I wouldn’t trade the lessons we’ve learned or the blessings we’ve experienced or the relationships we’ve built for anything! P.S. Please know there is absolutely nothing wrong with having a clean bathroom and a good night’s rest. This is just the season of life God has called me to right now and I want to embrace it wholeheartedly and see the gifts and beauty in it! In This Episode:  [00:33] Apparently podcasting equipment is the new hot thing for teenagers. [01:52] We recorded this on National Donut Day. [04:28] Jesse is heading out to camp with the youth boys.  [07:09] Water is saving my life these days. Learn why.  [10:13] I’ve been slowly reading Don’t Miss Out by Jeannie Cunnion. [12:26] Learn the inspiration for this episode.  [16:47] I’ve been thinking about how messy our house is right now but how peace-filled our lives are.  [18:15] Saying yes to God oftentimes means saying yes to the mess.  [21:18] I spend a lot of time in God’s word and praying throughout my day.  [23:32] It’s important to understand that you can’t say yes to everything. You have to rest.  [25:54] Why resting in God’s love is imperative to finding peace in the chaos.  Links and Resources: Don’t Miss Out by Jeannie Cunnion Love-Centered Parenting 10 Days to Be a Happier Mom Sign up for the Hot Deals Email List MoneySavingMom.com My Instagram account (I’d love for you to follow me there! I usually hop on at least a few times per day and share behind-the-scenes photos and videos, my grocery store hauls, funny stories, or just anything I’m pondering or would like your advice or feedback on!) Have feedback on the show or suggestions for future episodes or topics? Send me an email: crystal@moneysavingmom.com How to Listen to The Crystal Paine Show The podcast is available on iTunes, Android, Stitcher, and Spotify. You can listen online through the direct player here. OR, a much easier way to listen is by subscribing to the podcast through a free podcast app on your phone. (Find instructions for how to subscribe to a podcast here.) Ready to dive in and listen? Hit the player above or search for “The Crystal Paine Show” on your favorite podcast app. [ad_2] Source link

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Home appraisal’s ugly history and uncertain future

[ad_1] This is Part I of a deep dive into the home appraisal industry, which has faced a growing number of claims of racial bias. Today we explore the origins of the appraisal industry and its current lack of diversity. In Part II, we will examine what hard evidence of bias exists, and the assumptions behind home appraising.  Pat Turner’s mother was a child welfare worker in Suffolk, Virginia, during the Jim Crow era, who helped children of all races.  “My mother would come home about every month with a new child. And she would run that child a bath, and throw away their clothes, and give them clothes of mine to wear,” he said. Turner said his mother was “well ahead of her time,” a white person in southern Virginia who supported the civil rights movement during the 1950s. Turner attended the University of Richmond, graduated in 1972 and stayed in the Virginia capital to work as a real estate appraiser. Now in his 49th year on the job, Turner bristles at accusations that home appraisers discriminate against racial minorities. But he acknowledges that social observations enter into his calculations. “Where the lines are drawn are where the employment rates are out of balance. When you ride through a neighborhood, and there are guys smoking something midday that are definitely of employment age. The Black neighborhoods get hit harder by unemployment,” said Turner, who has run P.E. Turner & Co since 1990.  This content is exclusively for HW+ members. Start an HW+ Membership now for less than $1 a day. Your HW+ Membership includes: Unlimited access to HW+ articles and analysis Exclusive access to the HW+ Slack community and virtual events HousingWire Magazine delivered to your home or office Become a member today Already a member? log in The post Home appraisal’s ugly history and uncertain future appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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Cash on Cash Return

[ad_1] The post Cash on Cash Return appeared first on Millennial Money. Real estate investing requires tracking a variety of metrics, and one of the most important ones to analyze is the cash on cash return (also known as a COC return).  Investors typically use a COC return early on in the real estate investing process to determine whether they should purchase a piece of property. It’s just one metric in a long list of items, but it’s a big one so it’s a good idea to know how it works.  Keep reading to learn what a cash-on-cash return is and why real estate investors need to pay attention to it when buying and managing commercial real estate properties.  What is cash on cash return in real estate investing? A cash on cash return—or cash yield—is a type of return rate used to assess the annual return that an investor will make on an investment property compared to the amount of mortgage and other expenses they pay over the course of the same year.  One thing to remember about the cash on cash return is that it’s not a long-term metric. It only applies for a limited time period. It’s not meant to analyze the return over the life of a loan (though it can help generate a bigger picture of an investment’s profitability). Cash on cash return formula  Calculating the cash on cash return is not difficult and can be accomplished with a simple formula. To calculate the cash on cash return, take the total pre-tax net profit for a given period (usually one year), and divide it by the initial amount of cash you need to invest. In other words: divide one year’s net cash flow by the initial investment. You can use a free online cash return calculator to make this process easier. Why calculate cash on cash return? A cash on cash return is easy to calculate and great for viewing the potential return on residential rentals, stable income-producing investments like condos and apartments, and fix-and-flips.  Here are a few reasons to assess cash on cash return. Assess profitability The cash on cash return is important because it can project real estate performance during a forecasted time period.  By studying the cash on cash return, investors can determine likely distributions of actual cash in the months ahead and beyond.  Weigh financial decisions Calculating the cash on cash return can help buyers understand whether to take out a mortgage on an investment property and whether borrowing that amount of money is worth it in the long run. For example, a buyer may look at the cost of the mortgage compared to expenses and what they could bring in and consider making an all-cash investment to save money. Or, they might look at the cash on cash return and realize that it makes more sense to take the mortgage and invest their money elsewhere. Estimate expenses Conducting a cash on cash return calculation can help investors determine potential upcoming expenses. Going through this exercise can help investors avoid getting blindsided by unexpected costs. Choose the right property  Buying property is hard. Investors who have money to spend need to assess all their options and pick the best and most profitable solution based on their available cash and the best purchase price.  Calculating the cash on cash return or the net cash flow can help outline multiple options and help folks determine whether they’re putting their money into the right investment.  Learn more: How to Get a Mortgage for a Rental Property What You Should Know Before Buying Rental Property  How Rental Property Depreciation Works When to analyze the cash on cash return  The cash on cash return is often used when trying to determine ROI with a rental property.  Buying rental properties often requires taking out long-term debt financing. So it’s important to separate the cash return with debt factored and measure the return from the cash you are investing apart from the standard return on investment, which factors into the total return.  Rental property cash on cash return example Here is an example of how you would calculate the cash on cash return. Sam has an estimated first-year annual cash flow of $5,000 on an investment property, with a total loan amount of $200,000. In addition, Sam has the following expenses:  Down payment: $20,000    Closing costs: $6,000 Repairs: $2,500 Utilities: $500 Total cash invested: $29,000  In this case, Sam’s cash on cash return would be 10.34%. But what does that mean and is it in line with the industry average?  Let’s take a closer look. What is a good cash on cash return metric? As it turns out, there is no clear-cut way of measuring a solid cash on cash return. It depends on a few different factors.  Most investors tend to agree that a return between 8% and 10% or more would be a solid investment. So going back to the above example with Sam, 10.34% wouldn’t be anything to scoff at.  Yet, a cash on cash return can be impacted by uncontrollable factors. It’s therefore important to avoid putting too much stock into it. A beginner investor just getting started in the market may be perfectly happy with a cash on cash return of 4% to 5%. The fact is that managing real estate property can be hard, so if you’re profiting at all, it’s still a great thing.  Oftentimes investors start out around 5% and increase as they get better at managing properties and gain more experience. In these scenarios, it’s not uncommon to have a rate hovering around 4% or even lower at first and then jump to the 10% range.  What’s more, the cash on cash return is in no way indicative of a rental property’s total value. After all, it only provides a snapshot of a particular time period. So it could be negatively impacted by vacancies, taxes and insurance, heavy and unexpected repairs, and utility spikes. Similar terms to

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