Bond yields foretold housing and economic recovery


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The recent action in the 10-year bond yield has puzzled many people, but it looks wonderful to me as it shows that the U.S. economy is leading the world out of the recession. When I wrote the America Is Back economic model on April 7, 2020, the bond market was already signaling that the economy and housing would be ok.

In addition to the bond market yield action, responsible lending post-2010 gave me confidence that forbearance was not going to be the negative issue that many had hoped for. I coined the term forbearance crash bros last year to show that people who screamed that housing would crash in 2020 simply weren’t equipped to talk about housing economics in 2020 and 2021. While lending standards were never tight in American in the 21st century, they were very responsible post-2010.

On Friday, Black Knight reported that the number of loans in forbearance are on the verge of falling below 2 million. Roughly one year from the onset of the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S., the number of loans in forbearance programs has fallen by more than half, going from near 5 million to 2 million loans. The number of loans in forbearance peaked early in the crisis and has fallen steadily since late June of 2020, as Americans regained jobs lost due to the pandemic.

The continual decline in the number of loans in these programs may have surprised some people who have been predicting a flood of foreclosures coming onto the market and a subsequent massive decline in home prices once the forbearance programs end. More on the convoluted thinking by the so-called “forbearance crash bros” can be found here.

Loans in forbearance keep falling

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