Making sense of the markets this week: November 14
[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. Cyclical stocks may be ready for liftoff Cyclical stocks are priced similarly to the 1960s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early 2000s, according to Jim Paulsen, strategist at Leuthold Group. Those were periods that signalled the beginning of major bull market runs. He adds a bit of hyperbole perhaps suggesting that cyclical stocks may turn manic. But who knows? Perhaps there is some opportunity in the suggestion. Now, what are cyclical stocks? Here is a very good post on The Motley Fool (an investment newsletter), breaking down the categories of cyclical and non-cyclical stocks. “A cyclical stock is one whose underlying business generally follows the economic cycle of expansion and recession. Cyclical businesses perform well during economic expansions but typically experience significantly declining sales and profits during recessions and other challenging economic times.” The growth of a cyclical stock or cyclical sector depends on the business cycle. More specifically, these types of stocks need a robust and growing economy. Cyclical sectors include financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, energy, materials and commodities. That Motley Fool post does a good job of breaking down the sectors and it provides a few examples of sub-categories and stocks within those categories. This post from RBC breaks down the types of stocks that work well in different parts of recessions and recovery periods through a full economic cycle. Investing in cyclical stocks may carry more risk due to a dependence on continued robust economic growth. Rallies in cyclical stocks can be more short-lived and are prone to falter at the first hint of a recession or earnings slowdown. If one were to choose to add to (or overweight) cyclical stocks or sector funds, impeccable timing is required. You would have to strategize when you enter and exit. Of course, most investment commentators suggest that market timing is next to impossible. That said, patience might be the “cure” for timing on the “when to buy” side of the equation. You might be in early, and there may be many bumps along the road. You may have found some great long-term value, but you’ll have to wait it out. On valuation and from that Seeking Alpha post: “With cyclicals underperforming since March of this year, when treasury yields hit their highs, ‘investors have the opportunity to buy cyclicals priced similarly to where they were priced, historically, in the midst of many post-war recessions,’ Paulsen adds. “As this analysis demonstrates, the excessive cheapness of cyclical stocks, currently, may be the most compelling gauge of future performance.” I suggest that the “when to sell” part is quite easy. If those market-beating returns do show up, sell in stages and perhaps the stock sale proceeds take you back to your stock-to-bond (risk level) allocation. You’d move the monies to bonds or other risk-off assets. Or perhaps your cyclical profits are moved to more defensive stock sectors. Traditional value investing will often involve buying into cyclical economic sectors. And given that the U.S. tech giants have powered the current stock market rally—and as we discussed again last week they are certainly expensive—investors and fund managers are looking for greater value and opportunity. But value investing is not exclusive to cyclicals. Often, you can find value in any sector on a stock-by-stock basis. From the healthcare sector, a very defensive and non-cyclical sector, I hold CVS Health Corporation (CVS). The forward P/E ratio is 11.67 compared to 21.3 for the S&P 500, according to Seeking Alpha. A lower P/E ratio means you’re buying a stock or fund with greater current earnings. I have no problem adding money to that stock and a few others that appear (to my eye anyways) to offer greater current earnings and solid long term growth prospects. You could also seek out a value fund or find that greater value in a dividend-focused fund. A U.S. investor might even look to “cheaper” Canadian markets or other international markets. Back to those U.S. cyclicals: The pandemic has distorted business cycles and sector behaviour and how we might categorize stocks. From this TD America post, Investing in Cyclical Stocks: Has the Pandemic Changed the Outlook? “‘Compared to the overall stock market, cyclicals are in a position similar to where they were at the start of several past major bull-market runs: the early 1960s, early 1980s, early 1990s, and early 2000s,’ he writes in a note. COVID-19 has thrown some of these strategies into confusion, partly because the cycles have become so hard to identify. In May and June 2021, it appeared that the United States was winning the war on the pandemic through vaccinations, and the economy was ready to enter a long recovery phase. Then by August it became clear the Delta variant could be a huge challenge to a complete reopening, and some investors returned to ‘growth’ sectors like technology that initially carried the market in the early days of the pandemic.” And the market-leading technology companies may have nudged their way into that secular recovery space. Also from that TD piece: “‘As the economy shifted to being more services driven, a lot of services are enabled by technology,’” Cruz explained. ‘So, to perform well in an economy directed by the service sector, tech companies with solutions will be in a good spot to help a service-led business.’” The pandemic is still the wild card of the deck. It’s shaped our behaviours. And perhaps we are changed forever because of it. And our world adjusts, so does our definition of certain sectors and they might not perform in certain economic conditions. It’s not a complete rewrite of sector performance, but it appears that some editing is required. More on the evolving sector theme, Goldmans Sachs has released a series of ETFs, including the future consumer, future healthcare, future real estate, future tech leaders, and a future planet ETF that invests in the drive for a greener planet. This might
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