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[ad_1] Omicron variant may have picked up a piece of common-cold virus [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Normally, post-Diwali, we always see a dip in business. This time we didn’t see a dip, which is a good sign, which shows sustainability and sustained demand. This makes me very optimistic. [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 210,000 jobs were created in November — a miss from estimates. They also reported 82,000 in positive revisions to the previous jobs report. The unemployment rate is currently at 4.2%. For men and women age 20 and over, it stands at 4.0%. Job reports can be wild, and we often have two to three reports per year that miss estimates badly. However, be mindful of positive revisions and remember that we have over 10 million job openings and jobless claims recently had a print that we haven’t seen since 1969. My premise is that we should get all the jobs lost to COVID-19 by September of 2022 or earlier. From BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 210,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing. Employment in retail trade declined over the month. Here is a look at the progress of the unemployment rate, which stands at 4.2%. When we adjust the numbers to men and women ages 20 and over, the unemployment rate is at 4%. The U6 unemployment rate, which has been historically used by American bearish people to say the labor market isn’t great, is currently below what we saw in the best levels before the great financial crisis. Basically, it’s very rare for this data line to be below 8%, but we got there today. My best advice is to ignore people who use this data line out of context. Currently, it stands at 7.8% and near the levels we saw right before COVID-19 hit us. During this recovery, a big theme of my jobs and labor market analysis was that job opening should get to 10 million plus. I had tweeted the phrase #JOLTS 10,000,000 well before the job openings data took off in that direction. Unlike other people, I don’t believe in the conspiracy theories that there are many Americans who have not been working since 1945 but have been able to feed themselves, buy or rent shelter and purchase clothes. Like a lot of my economic work, there are limits to what can be done due to population growth slowing and the fact that no country has a Dorian Gray labor market: death and aging are potent economic forces that can’t be changed. In the end, nature always wins, and nobody can live or work forever. As you can see below, the trend is your friend, and job openings were near 7 million before COVID-19 hit us. Every month the Baby Boomers get older and older, and some leave the workforce for good. However, we do have parts of America that lack prime-age labor force growth, so the young replacing the old isn’t uniform across all regions. With that said, the household survey jobs data showed job gains of over a million jobs. We do have enough labor to get back to pre-COVID-19 levels and I do expect over time to see significant positive revisions to jobs data this year. I have been counting the months to see if my forecast would be correct. With 10 months left until the end of September 2022, let’s see how much progress we need. Feb 2020: 152,553,000 jobs Today: 148,611,000 jobs That leaves 3,942,000  jobs left to gain in the next 10 months, which is 394,200  jobs per month. With a 4.2% unemployment rate! Here is a look at the job gains and losses reported today. Of note, as you can see below, this is an excellent report on construction job growth. Let’s not forget that the builder’s confidence data has risen lately. Remember that when looking at jobs data, it’s always about prime-age labor force data for ages 25-54. The employment-to-population percentage for prime-age labor force is 1.9% away from being back to February 2020 levels. The jobs recovery in this new expansion has been much better than what we saw during the recovery phase after the great financial crisis. Most people who want to work in our country are employed on a regular basis. Not surprisingly, the lower portion of the educational and skilled attainment population tends to have a higher unemployment rate. This is why I created the #ATighterLaborMarketIsAGoodThing. We want to see the kind of unemployment rates that college-educated people have spread to the other sectors! In this report, we had a major move lower in the unemployment rate for those that never finished high school. This group of Americans, while not being a large portion of the workforce, is typically the last group to get hired in an expansion. The move lower in the unemployment rate for this group was big, as the previous report has them at a 7.4% unemployment. Here is a breakdown of the unemployment rate and educational attainment for those 25 years and older. Less than a high school diploma, 5.7% High School graduate, no college 5.2% Some college or associate degree 3.7% Bachelor’s degree and higher 2.3% We have legs to keep the jobs data going for some time. However, we are now on our fifth wave of COVID-19 cases increasing with a new variant called Omicron, which is already in 38 countries. So, what will this do to mortgage rates, the economic data, and the bond market? While the Delta variant didn’t crush economic data as COVID-19 did in March and April of 2020, it did slow some aspects of the economy down. So, if Omicron is worse than Delta, we have to add that new variable into the equation for 2022. Regarding the bond market and the first Fed rate hike, that is a different story altogether.  When I wrote the AB recovery model on April 7, 2020 (which was retired Dec. 9, 2020), I needed one thing to happen in 2021. While I believed we needed to see the 10-year yield head back to 1%

[ad_1] Latest on Omicron Variant, South Africa and Covid-19: Live News  The New York Times Omicron coronavirus variant found in multiple US states  Yahoo News Omicron confirmed in man who attended NYC anime convention  PIX11 News Why Omicron Was First Found in San Francisco  The New York Times Editorial: Omicron is here, just in time for the holidays. But don’t panic.  Houston Chronicle View Full Coverage on Google News [ad_2]

[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors.  It’s the econOMI, stupid!  The new COVID variant, now given the handle of Omicron, hit the newswires just as I had submitted last week’s (most excellent) post. The news spread quickly around the globe, and it caught the attention of the markets.  Last week, I wrote about the risk of investing in energy stocks, including the wildcard known as the pandemic. Always the elephant in the room, additional outbreaks from the virus can lead to more lockdowns, restrictions and less economic activity. In any lockdown, we travel less, stay closer to home and consume much less fuel.  Stock markets took a hit, and the price of oil dropped by about 15% after the Omicron news last Friday. And of course, the new variant of great concern poses a risk to the local and global economy. This threat goes well beyond the energy sector.   Source: Seeking Alpha  The markets adopted the mentality of “shoot now and ask questions later.”  The stock markets around the world were reacting to an unknown. What do we know about Omicron? Not much.  And the markets keep reacting in whipsaw fashion, as the experts try to answer the many questions. This Atlantic post sums it up quite nicely:  “It’s a lot of news to process, and it comes without a lot of baseline knowledge about the virus itself. Scientists around the world are still scrambling to gather intel on three essential metrics: how quickly the variant spreads; if it’s capable of causing more serious disease; and whether it might be able to circumvent the immune protection left behind by past SARS-CoV-2 infections or COVID-19 vaccines, or evade immune-focused treatments such as monoclonal antibodies.” We do not have answers to any of those three main questions, and it will likely be many weeks before we have those answers. I have a hunch that won’t stop the markets from reacting to each hopeful or cautioning headline.  On the other hand, the Omicron variant may pose no threat, or it might be the status quo on the pandemic front. Or, this prolific variant (it has more mutations than other previous variants) might pose a real threat. If it can evade vaccines, we might be somewhat starting over. At the other end of the spike protein spectrum, Omicron may be the best thing that has happened during this pandemic.  If Omicron is more transmissible compared to Delta, which is the current and prevailing variant, and if Omicron causes much less death and sickness, we will move closer to the other side of the pandemic. Omicron will muscle out Delta; and theoretically, a less-dangerous variant will spread around the globe. That is wishful thinking, but it is a possibility.  We don’t know how this will play out. The question is: Are you ready for any of these scenarios?  I often write that any scare is a polite warning for investors. It should not take such an event like this for you to check your investor pulse but take the opportunity now to assess your portfolio, your goals (financial plan) and your risk tolerance level.  In another strike of blogger post irony, last week I was creating a follow-up post to: “How to prepare your portfolio for the coronavirus outbreak.” I wrote that before the pandemic became a pandemic on February 1, 2020, just as cases were starting to spread around the globe. I did follow up with another post that looked at the performance of that “pandemic portfolio.” Both posts might be timely today. And if you do need to protect your portfolio assets, you might look to the advanced couch potato portfolios that are designed to be ready for any economic development.  Be ready for volatility. Make sure you have a rock-solid investment plan you can execute through the noise and scares. This will not be the last variant of concern.  This is the new not-so-normal reality of this decade.  The big Canadian banks go big on the dividends During the pandemic, Canadian financials (that includes the banks, insurance companies and diversified financial companies) were instructed by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), their regulator, to suspend dividend increases, share buybacks and stock compensation for executives during the pandemic.  Those restrictions were lifted in early November. And, yours truly was on the announcement call with OSFI and first to report the good news on Twitter: @rcarrick @OHaraClare @SBarlow_ROB "Beginning today, institutions may again increase regular dividends and executive compensation. Additionally, subject to the existing requirement for Superintendent approval, they may once again repurchase shares."https://t.co/dkqyVZo60g — CutTheCrapInvesting (@67Dodge) November 4, 2021 Canadian dividend investors have been seen salivating ever since, looking to receive those big juicy dividend increases. Investors were not disappointed.  Scotiabank (BNS) led off the festivities on Tuesday November 30th. While there were expectations of a dividend increase of 5% to 6%, Scotiabank offered up 11.1%.  On Wednesday (hump day), Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) stepped up to the plate. They also served up an 11.1% dividend increase. But, keep in mind, historically RBC increases its dividend twice a year. It might match that increase again with announcements in February 2022. Of course, the next dividend increase could go either way—and end up being less or more generous than this round. Future dividend increases will likely be affected by economic and pandemic conditions.  Also on Wednesday, National Bank (NA) did not disappoint and set a new standard. National increased its dividend by 22.5%.  On Thursday, Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) came through big time with a 13% increase. That is not yet reflected on dividendhistory.org.  Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) offered up a 10% raise.  And, on Friday, the Bank of Montreal (BMO) said “hold my beer.” It increased its dividend by 25%! What a week it was.  The Canadian banks also announced generous share buybacks. That is another route that can return value to shareholders.

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[ad_1] Pakistan plans budget squeeze to win IMF funding approval [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] The company has roped in Esha Deol, Zareen Khan, Rithvik Dhanjani, Krystle D’Souza, Simran Dhanwani and Kiku Sharda for the campaign [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] WHO chief scientist says Omicron 'quite infectious', must not panic [ad_2] Source link