[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. Jerome Powell, the stage is yours This week, all eyes and ears were on the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Fed chairman, Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, conducted a two-day meeting on Wednesday and Thursday. On Thursday, it was announced the pace of the tapering of bond buying will double and that rate hikes are likely to begin in 2022. Power suggested we could see three rate hikes in 2022, with more to follow in 2023. The Fed was forced to respond to ongoing and troubling inflation in the U.S. On Monday, inflation readings showed a 6.8% increase for November, year over year. That was the greatest rate of increase in more than 40 years. It was time for Powell to get to work. One of the main tools a central bank has is to raise rates—to ultimately increase borrowing costs, and in turn cool the economy. The most notable line from the Powell press conference: “This is not the inflation we wanted.” It’a certainly time to act. But will the U.S. Federal Reserve take away the punch bowl? Is the stock and real estate party over, thanks to the removal of stimulus? The markets said “party on.” Markets in the U.S., Canada and around the globe spiked on the Powell comments and the path laid out in the commentary. Here’s the S&P 500 (IVV) chart courtesy of Seeking Alpha. Stocks added more than 1% on December 15, as Powell gave his remarks. Stocks did soften at the close of the week. Traders are absorbing the rate hike agenda and the surging Omicron variant. Source: Seeking Alpha The market likes certainty. And the Powell comments, and the Fed moves, came in as expected. Powell also balanced his rates outlook with a strong dose of optimism. He appears to fear inflation, but not the new Omicron variant. Stock market history suggests the initial period of rate hikes is not harmful to markets. That makes sense, as rates are usually increased to cool a red-hot economy. The rate hikes normally begin when things are “all-good.” Also from this Seeking Alpha post: Source: Seeking Alpha That said, trouble (ahem, recessions) can often begin years after the rate hike cycle begins. As reported from Seeking Alpha: “ ‘Since 1955, there’ve been 13 hiking cycles, and the median time from the start of the hiking cycle to the next recession is just over three years, with the earliest gap at 11 months,’ Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid writes.” Market history suggests there may be no immediate threat. My column from May 2021 features a table showing the returns for U.S. stocks through the rising rate environments over the last several decades. And, there is certainly no guarantee that the Fed will follow through with rate increases. “Bloomberg Surveillance” host Lisa Abramowicz was not buying the rate increase suggestion. On Thursday morning, Abramowicz suggested the markets are thinking “transitory” on the possibility of those rate increases. (Ha! Transitory humour.) Canadian economist David Rosenberg is also suspicious. Check out his tweet: How the Fed gets 4% growth for 2022, double potential, with the degree of fiscal support we will see, remains a true mystery. I'll take the under on that — or maybe it's a set-up to end up doing nothing on rates after all this tough language. — David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) December 15, 2021 Quite possibly, the markets don’t believe Powell. When push comes to shove, the Fed will be there to reverse course and pull the plug on rate hikes. (For some background, read: What is a taper tantrum?) I checked in with Greg Foss, a former credit-focused hedge fund manager. I asked how he interpreted the tepid response from the bond markets. The bond markets reacted as if it was status quo and they barely noticed. Foss responded via email: “The bond market does not believe that hikes are possible …. nor do I.” And he responded on a stronger U.S. dollar: “The strengthening of the U.S. dollar will cause all emerging markets to crater, then it will leak into the S&P, then the Fed will turn their back on those rate hikes.” As we’ve all discovered during this pandemic, times are unpredictable, and so much could happen over the next several months. Inflation could moderate, and economic growth could slow. There might be no need to fight inflation or slow economic growth by way of rate increases. And, as has been the case for the last 21 months, the pandemic and now Omicron are the wild cards. Anything can happen. Be prepared, as always. The green transition will be inflationary It will take an incredible amount of materials (commodities) to build the electric vehicles and batteries, and to create the amount of clean energy and infrastructure required to meet our net zero climate targets. I see that as a very obvious and investable trend. Global greenficiation might be the greatest political event driving the planet right now and that greenficiation will likely become the greatest economic force. In late November, I wrote about the greenification commodities supercycle. I found a few reports suggesting the greenification process will also be inflationary. On Yahoo! Finance (watch the video), Principal Global Investors’ chief strategist Seema Shah said that, as companies and countries deal with the massive infrastructure build, this could lead to an energy shortage and higher prices. She adds that we will start to see energy inflation. That’s “en-flation,” a term we’ll be seeing a lot more of in the future. And en-flation could lead to structurally higher inflation over the coming years. As companies strive to get to net-zero targets, many will purchase carbon credits. Those costs are expected to rise. Companies struggling to meet CO2 reductions targets will also face government levies, as more countries put a price on carbon. It will be expensive for those companies that do make