Making sense of the markets this week: January 23
[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. U.S. earnings season is in full swing Earnings season is off and running. As always, the financials were battling to be the lead-off batter, as we look at the final quarter of 2021. The lineup of fourth-quarter reports includes heavyweights like Goldman Sachs (GS), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Netflix (NFLX) and United Airlines (UAL). Since last week, the banks offered mixed results. A few banks underwhelmed the markets, while others knocked it out of the park. We had lacklustre results from major U.S. banks, including JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C). On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (GS) reported a fourth-quarter profit that missed expectations, sending its shares down as much as 8%. JPMorgan beat profit expectations last Friday, but it saw shares fall 6% on expense concerns. The markets were not in a good mood coming into this past week, and these mediocre results were not enough to reverse the downward trend for U.S. stock prices. Here’s a one-month chart for the S&P 500: Source: Seeking Alpha – to January 20 Heading into earnings season, earnings revisions weren’t as strong as pre-announcement periods in 2021. In week one of earnings season, earnings were mixed. But most companies surprised to the upside—meaning they had unexpected results. The majority of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings did exceed Wall Street estimates, with earnings that were 8.3% above expectations. This Seeking Alpha post suggests: “Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 22.4% in the fourth quarter, according to data from Refinitiv, which would wrap up a record year where overall earnings soared around 49%. Meanwhile, 26 S&P 500 firms have already reported Q4 results, with 77% of them posting bottom-line results that beat analyst expectations.” Watching Netflix After the close on Thursday, all eyes were on Netflix (NFLX). It did not deliver the earnings content that market watchers wanted. The company added 8.28 million net subscribers worldwide, below its own expectations for 8.5 million and the Street analysts’ assumptions for 8.32 million. The company now has 221.84 million global paid memberships, and it grew that number 8.9% year-over-year. Revenue grew by 16.1% year-over-year. Profitability slipped as content creation costs exceeded expectations. The tough critics are the markets. The stock was down by over 18% in after-hours trading. Turning over to the much less dramatic Procter & Gamble (PG), the consumer staples company delivered quarterly revenue of $20.95B, up 6.1% year-over-year. That number beat earnings estimates. Diluted earnings per share increased 13%. PG stated that it was able to pass along its own increased costs to consumers. The consumer staples sector is known as a very good inflation hedge. The stock jumped over 4% after the company’s earnings release on Wednesday, Jan. 19. The market continues to rotate away from high-growth stocks, such as Netflix, and move toward the defensive names and value stocks, like PG, which I mention above. “Boring” is in style this week. The technology sector is now in an official bear market, down by over 12% in 2022. As I reported throughout 2021, tech stocks are and were very expensive, and they are vulnerable when we enter correction mode. The analysts’ prediction for U.S. stocks in 2022: Average 2022 forecast for S&P 500 sits at 4982 per @Bloomberg survey of Wall Street strategists pic.twitter.com/FEBGgEAgcX — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 20, 2022 That’s a 6.5% return from the S&P 500 levels on Thursday, Jan. 20. That’s a long way from the double-digit returns that we’ve experienced over the last three years. North of the border Meanwhile, Canadian markets continue to be on a financial and energy-fuelled roll. Energy producers were up almost 17% year-to-date, mid-week. Canadian banks are up over 3% year-to-date. Gold and base metals are also coming back into favour. What would be ideal is if U.S stocks could experience a sizable correction while Canadian stocks hold up or continue to make gains. That would provide a wonderful rebalancing opportunity. U.S. stocks, and especially large-cap tech, are still best in class longer-term. It would be more than enticing to see them at reasonable valuations. Hey, a guy can dream… Will earnings revisions matter more than rate hikes? In last week’s post, I wrote about the investment battle of 2022. It is the battle of economic and earnings growth versus the Fed, and the risk of a rising-rate environment. This tweet from Isabelnet suggests earnings revisions might trump the rate hikes in 2022 and beyond. The earnings revisions will measure the sentiment of analysts as they raise or lower their estimates. S&P 500 Currently, earnings revisions matter more than interest rates for the S&P 500 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p h/t @MorganStanley #markets #investing #earnings #EPS#sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities pic.twitter.com/tI2M3gQrm9 — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) January 15, 2022 In 2021, the earnings surprise drove the returns of U.S. stocks. The level of earnings surprise (the level of actual earnings vs analysts’ estimates) was almost a near-match. Here’s a chart that shows the S&P 500 earnings estimates for total years, including 2022 and 2023. Earnings Morgan Stanley still expects S&P 500 earnings per share of $227 in 2022 and $245 in 2023 https://t.co/3SVJ18RESn h/t @MorganStanley #markets #investing #earnings #EPS#sp500 $spx #spx $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities pic.twitter.com/O1vEfyWBBn — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) January 15, 2022 Those estimates show the potential for continued and generous earnings growth. The estimates call for an average of over 8% earnings growth for 2022 and 2023. If those earnings come to fruition, will that be enough to satisfy investors? Stocks struggled to hold on to any gains on Thursday. This comment on Seeking Alpha sums up the battle: “‘Bottom line, given rising rates and Fed hawkishness, markets need earnings to reinforce the resiliency of corporate America,’ Kinsale Trading’s Tom Essaye says. ‘And while earnings results aren’t ‘bad,’ at this point they aren’t good enough to offset rising yield-related anxiety.’” Canada to begin the rate hike cycle next week? Inflation
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