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[ad_1] Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 467,000 jobs were created in January. This was a big surprise as some people, including me, thought the rise in the number of sick days being reported could impact this month’s job report. One of the factors I’ve cited over the last few months is that we should see more positive revisions occur in the future. The total positive revisions in this report are 709,000. To say that I was excited to see this report is an understatement. Since the economic lows in April of 2020, it has been a joy to see my country make the most significant economic comeback ever. What I wrote on April 7, 2020, I truly believe on the economic front: “My faith in America winning has never let me down because I always believe in my people and country. I can tell you now, this virus isn’t changing my view on that.” One of the most significant differences between the recovery from the great financial crisis compared to the COVID-19 recovery is that the labor dynamics have been much different this time around. The truth was that we were never going to go into a job-loss recession in 2020 without COIVD-19 and job openings were near 7 million before COVID-19 hit us. Before the job openings data took off, I was very adamant on Twitter that JOLTS would hit 10 million soon. Job openings are now near 11 million, as the U.S., just like many other countries, has an aging workforce that is difficult to replace. As you see from the chart below, the labor market dynamics from the end of the great financial crisis, where job openings were just a tad over 2 million, weren’t as positive as those we had right before the COVID recession. Jobless claims data looks very solid. Even with all the Americans reporting sick due to Omicron, the need for labor in America is massive. In addition to the America is Back recovery model, I made another call in 2021 on the jobs data. I believed that unlike other economic data, which recovered quickly, the jobs data was going to take some time to get back to pre-COVID-19 levels. So, the target that I set was for September of 2022 or earlier. Now this forecast was before Delta and Omicron. However, not once did I change this forecast due to those due new variants waves. So, let’s take a look at the numbers today with eight months left until the September report.—Feb 2020: 152,553,000 jobs—Today: 149,629,000 jobs That leaves us with 2,924,000 jobs left to make up with eight months to go, which means we need to average adding 365,500 jobs per month. The unemployment rate currently stands at 4.0% Now this jobs report was such a shocker to the upside that it does have some risk of negative revisions, but still, the trend is your friend and we are still working to get all the jobs back lost to COVID-19. Here is a breakdown of today’s job data. Even though total construction jobs fell, residential construction jobs had another positive month. Job openings for construction workers are still historically high today as the need for labor in America is very high. So much for the premise that robots and immigrants would take all the jobs in America. Remember, when looking at jobs data, it’s always about prime-age employment data for ages 25-54. The employment-to-population percentage for the prime-age labor force is 1.4% away from being back to February 2020 levels. The jobs recovery in this new expansion has been much better than we saw during the recovery phase after the great financial crisis. Education and employment One giant fact that people tend to forget always is that a majority of Americans who want to work have always been working. The part of the labor force with the least educational attainment tends to have a higher unemployment rate. On Twitter, I started the hashtag A Tighter Labor Market Is A Good Thing to remind everyone that the economy runs hot when we have a tighter labor market. We want to see the kind of unemployment rates that college-educated people have spread to everyone because we have tons of jobs that don’t need a college education. You would always rather have a tight labor market than high unemployment. Hopefully, businesses can invest to create more productivity because the baby boomers are leaving the workforce every month and certain parts of the U.S. don’t have much prime-age labor force growth.  Here is a breakdown of the unemployment rate and educational attainment for those 25 years and older: —Less than a high school diploma: 6.3%.—High school graduate and no college: 4.6%.—Some college or associate degree: 3.6.—Bachelor’s degree and higher: 2.3%. The 10-year yield and mortgage rates My 2022 forecast said: For 2022, my range for the 10-year yield is 0.62%-1.94%, similar to 2021. Accordingly, my upper end range in mortgage rates is 3.375%-3.625% and the lower end range is 2.375%-2.50%. This is very similar to what I have done in the past, paying my respects to the downtrend in bond yields since 1981. We had a few times in the previous cycle where the 10-year yield was below 1.60% and above 3%. Regarding 4% plus mortgage rates, I can make a case for higher yields, but this would require the world economies functioning all together in a world with no pandemic. For this scenario, Japan and Germany yields need to rise, which would push our 10-year yield toward 2.42% and get mortgage rates over 4%. Current conditions don’t support this. The bond market shot up higher as soon as the jobs report came in and currently, at this very second, the 10-year yield is at 1.93%. I totally understand why people are confused why bond yields are still below 2% with the economy running so hot and inflation data being as high as it is. However, as always, I have tried to stress, the

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[ad_1] Amazon surges, eyes Wall Street record gain in value [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] By Manish M Suvarna Corporate bonds yields across tenures and ratings surged sharply during the week, tracking the movement in yields on government securities after the government in the Union Budget announced higher-than-expected market borrowings next fiscal year. Yields on 10-year corporate bonds in the secondary market rose by 15-20 basis points, while those on five-year and three-year bonds saw a rise of 20-25 basis points. Similarly, the yield on benchmark securities rose nearly 20-25 basis points and touched a 30-month high since the start of the week. The benchmark yield ended marginally down on Friday at 6.8789%. “The recent spike in corporate bond yields was post G-Sec yields moving up in reaction to the large borrowing programme. Yields will continue the upward trend as markets are expecting a change in stance and rise in reverse repo rate in the forthcoming policy,” said Anand Nevatia, fund manager, Trust Mutual Fund. In the Union Budget, the government has projected market borrowings of Rs 14.95 lakh crore and net borrowing of Rs 11.2 lakh crore to bridge the fiscal deficit gap. The market had expected the government to borrow between of Rs 12.50 lakh crore and Rs 13 lakh crore. This has created jitters in the market, pushing yields on these papers to a multi-year high. The rise in yields on both government and corporate bonds has also resulted in a narrowing of spreads. Currently, the spread between a 10-year corporate bond and government securities is around 40-45 basis points, compared to 70-80 basis points earlier. Market participants said rising yields on corporate bonds will lead to lower issuances. Corporate bond yields across ratings and tenures have already seen a rise of 30-40 basis points in December following the uptick in G-Sec yields. Yields are expected to rise in the coming days considering the higher borrowing, rising inflation, and Fed’s announcement on interest rate hike and on tapering its bond purchase programme. At home, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), too, has withdrawn liquidity from the markets. [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] This article is part of our HousingWire 2022 forecast series. After the series wraps, join us on February 8 for the HW+ Virtual 2022 Forecast Event. Bringing together some of the top economists and researchers in housing, the event will provide an in-depth look at the predictions for this year, along with a roundtable discussion on how these insights apply to your business. The event is exclusively for HW+ members, and you can go here to register. An unstoppable force will meet an immovable object in the U.S. housing market this year, and we’ll find out which one wins. 2022 Forecast series What are the drivers of housing demand in 2022? 5 predictions for the 2022 housing market Here are 7 trends to watch in the 2022 appraisal market Here are 4 macro trends impacting the 2022 housing market Housing entered 2022 riding high on several superlatives: the highest-ever annual price appreciation, the lowest-ever active inventory and the fastest monthly rise in mortgage rates since 2016. The biggest question for the year ahead is whether the immovable object of this market’s affordability struggles can slow the unstoppable force of demand enough to alleviate the inventory shortage that has fueled price growth since June 2020. Zillow’s answer: price growth won’t slow much, at least not nationally. Our forecast is for home values to rise 16% from December 2021 to December 2022. Price growth during the pandemic has been astronomical, but it has not yet put homeownership out of reach for the bulk of would-be homebuyers around the country, so Americans will continue to bid against each other for the scarce supply of homes on the market. One of the main headwinds for buyers — higher mortgage rates — will also dissuade some sellers who want to avoid paying more interest on their next home purchase. That could keep supply limited even as demand begins to slowly slacken. Drilling down geographically, we do expect more regional divergence in price trends. Some of the least affordable markets, like Seattle and San Francisco, are likely to see price gains slow down sharply as higher mortgage rates make homeownership increasingly unaffordable relative to renting or moving elsewhere. That would echo market trends in 2019, following the last major cycle of rising mortgage rates. But in more-affordable regions that have boomed during the pandemic, higher interest rates will offer little to no resistance. That means home shoppers should continue to expect stiff competition and even bidding wars in the hottest markets. The most competitive markets of 2022 will again be in the Sun Belt, including Tampa, Jacksonville and Raleigh. Homebuyers continue to flock to Sun Belt markets because of their relative affordability and weather that permits year-round outdoor living, especially as more people are able to work remotely and may not need to live near their employers in other traditional job centers. While deteriorating affordability will only dissuade a portion of would-be buyers, many of them will divert instead into the single-family rental market. More space is a coveted feature during the pandemic, whether that’s a yard for the dog or an extra bedroom for a home office or a growing family. Many younger Americans in the market for a bigger home will start with a rental, until they can save up for a down payment in today’s daunting purchase market. The post Zillow’s outlook for 2022: Will housing affordability slow demand? appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors.  The first modern-day pandemic—two years later To my knowledge, I was the first financial writer in Canada to cover the pandemic or suggest it as a concern. It’s hard to believe that we’ve lived two years of our lives in a scary and confusing pandemic. Two years ago I wrote this post on my blog, “How to prepare your portfolio for the coronavirus outbreak”. On February 1, 2020, it was not yet considered a “global” pandemic. The first cases were just being reported. And my blog post and headline appears trite and uncaring considering the number of deaths and illness. But again, the destructive path of the coronavirus was not yet known. I addressed the risks and the performance of the markets in previous epidemics.  And, yes, I put some asset allocation ideas on the table for consideration.  I did a follow-up post about the performance of the pandemic portfolio. The risk management ideas certainly did the job in the early stages of the pandemic. Adding gold and long-term treasuries helped the model outperform a traditional balanced couch potato portfolio. In fact, gold hit an all-time record high in August 2020. The price started to soften as the perceived risks of the pandemic began to lower.  As always, those are classic risk managers that you might include in an advanced spud portfolio. When the pandemic struck, many investors were looking to get an edge over the markets. MoneySense investing editor-at-large Jonathan Chevreau looked at the stay-at-home ETFs and the COVID-19 index created by Jim Cramer, the host of CNBC’s “Mad Money.” Chevreau writes:  “Based on this chart, I’d say Cramer’s COVID-19 index has thus far earned its keep and kept investors out of stocks hardest hit by the virus. The 100 COVID-19 stocks include more than just WFH [work from home] and FANG stocks [Meta (formerly Facebook), Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet (Google)]. They also include pharma and biotech stocks working on a COVID-19 vaccine: Abbott Laboratories, Eli Lilly, Gilead Sciences, Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, Pfizer and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals.” While core index investing worked well through the pandemic, one could have gained an edge by paying attention to work-from-home stocks and sectors versus the reopening stocks and sectors.  The biggest surprise to many is that big U.S. tech proved to be the most resilient of the sectors. We don’t usually think of growth sectors as defensive. But we stayed home, worked from home, shopped from home and renovated our homes. Names such as Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet, Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) became big tech utilities.  How will I wrap up the two years?  We had the fastest market decline followed by the fastest market recovery—thanks to mind-boggling amounts of (much needed) government stimulus. Governments promised to do whatever it takes to support citizens, businesses and the economy.  Miracle vaccine development was a life saver. We had hope.  We experienced waves of COVID infections and moved through many stages of lockdowns and restrictions and subsequent attempts to reopen the economy and get back to “normal.” We are all changed.  We began to reflect on our lives and the meaning of life. We got a taste of working from home and more time to ourselves by not commuting. We questioned our mortality, and the whole work-life balance thing got turned on its head. We started quitting jobs and saying no to returning to work. Many are choosing to design their own career and life paths.  A common COVID reaction is and was: Take this job and shove it.  Moving forward, we will likely continue on with a hybrid work-from-home and work-at-the-office hybrid. Workers are in the driver’s seat. For now.  Thanks to the stimulus, global growth remained somewhat resilient. We continue to fight our way back. In fact, Canadian Gross domestic product (GDP) returned to pre-COVID levels.  The pandemic savings and government support payments for individuals were used to buy goods and unleashed a wave of inflation. That inflation was also exacerbated, thanks to supply chain issues due to COVID restrictions and a shortage of workers.  Demand for goods has greatly surpassed the ability to produce and deliver those products. As a reader of this column, you may know that inflation is the greatest threat to your portfolio, as well as economic recovery.  We have robust economic global growth. We have inflation needing to be tamed by natural economic forces, or by central banks that are set to raise rates, to cool the economy.  Stimulus from government support programs is also being removed over time. The big question will be: Can the economy stand on its own two feet?  Experts suggest that the virus is never going away. But we are quickly moving to the endemic stage.  It was early December 2021 when I suggested we were likely entering the end of the pandemic stage. That was an early and hopeful call. “On the other hand, the Omicron variant may pose no threat, or it might be the status quo on the pandemic front. Or, this prolific variant (it has more mutations than other previous variants) might pose a real threat. If it can evade vaccines, we might be somewhat starting over. At the other end of the spike protein spectrum, Omicron may be the best thing that has happened during this pandemic.”  Positive COVID case numbers are coming down sharply, hospital numbers are starting to decline and restrictions are being lifted across Canada.  Incredibly contagious and somewhat less dangerous, Omicron accelerated the move to the endemic stage. Let’s pray and hope that another variant does not come along to spoil the roaring ’20s party.  I am not surprised by this move from a pandemic to an endemic. I read and shared the playbook early in 2020. How does the pandemic end? With a cold.  The earnings parade continues, with many Canadian companies pitching in  Earnings in the U.S were humming

[ad_1] The post Are Blogs Still a Thing? – Making Money in 2022 appeared first on Millennial Money. Believe it or not, blogging is nearly in its third decade.  Today, just about everyone seems to be doing it — from preschool teachers to electricians and everyone in between. But is blogging still a viable way to make money heading into 2022? Let’s take a closer look. What is Blogging? Is Blogging Still Relevant? How Much Do Bloggers Make in 2022? Why Do Companies Hire Bloggers? What Qualifications Do You Need to Blog? Types of Blogging Jobs The Pros and Cons of Blogging Where to Find Blogging Jobs What Is Blogging? In case you’re unfamiliar, here’s a quick primer on blogging. If you’re already knowledgeable about how blogs work, feel free to skip to the next section. At a high level, a blog is a self-publishing tool that people and companies can use to share ideas and insights. Blogs are entirely open-ended, meaning the owner can say just about anything they want (within reason, of course). Most blogs contain a variety of multimedia — including text, photos, videos, and podcasts. As a blog producer, you can specialize in one or several types of media creation. It all depends on your training, interests, skills, and area of expertise.  In a corporate setting, blogging falls under the umbrella of content marketing. Brands typically have robust content marketing strategies that encompass several areas — including website copy, social media posts, email marketing content, and blog content.  Companies often ask bloggers to contribute to more than one channel. So if a company hires you as a blogger, chances are it will also ask you to contribute to another content initiative.  Is Blogging Still Relevant? Blogs are definitely still a thing, and they’re perhaps more relevant today than they’ve ever been.  In fact, blogging remains an integrated digital marketing strategy that companies need to attract and educate customers. According to one study, 85% of business-to-consumer (B2C) marketers and 91% of business-to-business (B2B) marketers say their companies blog or use other types of content marketing on a regular basis. At the same time, many people are still operating their own independent blogs. Truth be told, you don’t need to be affiliated with any company to use a blogging platform like WordPress or Medium. It’s possible to cover just about any topic and potentially make money through affiliate links, sponsored content, and advertising.  How Much Do Bloggers Make in 2022? Currently, the average base salary for a blogger in the U.S. is $31,735. However, you can make much more than this if you hustle and discover new opportunities on a regular basis.  How much you make as a blogger depends largely on the industry that you’re working in and how aggressive you are about finding new gigs.  If you work full-time for one company, you can expect to get paid a salary and even receive benefits like health insurance and paid time off. On the other hand, freelancers tend to get paid on a per-project, hourly, or per-word basis. The most successful bloggers tend to build their own websites and generate recurring revenue through subscribers, advertisements, email lists, and affiliate marketing links. This strategy can even lead to passive income, which can add up over time.  Why Do Companies Hire Bloggers? The idea of contributing to a company blog may seem like a strange concept at first. But if you think about it, there are a variety of reasons why companies hire bloggers. We’ll explore them in this section. Search engine optimization (SEO) Companies want their websites to rank highly on search engines like Google so customers can easily find them when they search for solutions to their problems.  For this reason, organizations use various SEO strategies that align with what search engine algorithms are looking for. By doing so, they can improve visibility and shoot up in the rankings. Blogging can significantly boost SEO — particularly when posts answer specific questions that customers are entering into Google.  For example, customers may ask questions like “what is gluten-free?” A gluten-free food manufacturer might write an in-depth blog post on this topic to provide a comprehensive explanation and help answer potential customers’ questions.  In the early days, blogging played a much larger role in SEO. Today, blogging is still important — but it’s ultimately just one piece of the SEO puzzle.  Customer education In addition to ranking on search engines, companies also need to educate customers through their websites. While photos and videos are a great start, they also need captions and supporting materials.  When it boils down to it, blogs play a crucial role in educating customers about a brand and its various initiatives. As a blogger, you can help craft content that explains different services and what makes the company different from its competitors.  For example, a home improvement company might offer a step-by-step guide to replacing the carpet in a room. This type of content is extremely valuable — especially if it links back to the products or resources that the company offers. Influencing customers  Many companies — especially fashion and retail brands — like to hire Millennial influencers to blog about their favorite products and personal experiences.  To work as an influencer, you need to have a large number of followers on various social media platforms. You also need the ability to connect with target audiences and get them to take action. Thought leadership Blogs don’t always directly support products and services. Sometimes, companies use blogs to demonstrate thought leadership. In a nutshell, thought leadership is content that proves expertise. Companies typically use thought leadership to convey subject matter expertise and their commitment to various causes and initiatives. For example, a manufacturer might produce thought leadership on fair pay or equality in the workplace.  Simply put, thought leadership is a chance to showcase specific messaging to customers.  Bloggers often help write thought leadership by interviewing subject matter experts and turning their ideas into creative

[ad_1] If you’re looking for a unique gift idea for a child who loves arts & crafts, don’t miss these exclusive discounts on Annie’s Craft Kit Clubs that our readers can get right now! Just use code CRYSTAL at checkout to get 75% off your first month of any of their craft kit subscription boxes! They have 20 different kits to choose from, but these are a few of our favorites: Annie’s Creative Girls Club: $2.49 per kit + shipping! Designed for girls ages 7-12, each Creative Girls Club box comes with two craft kits! Most of the crafts can be made with very little adult supervision. There is a nice variety of craft kits, including painting, beading, stitching, paper crafting, jewelry making, and much more! Each month comes with new crafts, so it’s a fun surprise for kids to look forward to! We’ve been receiving Annie’s Creative Girls Craft Kits for about a year now, and I’ve been really impressed with everything you get for the price. It would be such a perfect gift for a young child in your life who loves to create or do craft activities! Your first box will be $4.99 + shipping after code CRYSTAL — so just $2.49 per craft kit + shipping costs! Annie’s Creative Woman Club: $4.99 + shipping! To access this kit, click HERE and then where it says “select a club” up top, use the dropdown menu to change it to “Creative Woman.” These kits are designed to help women embrace their creativity and expand their skill sets. There is a really nice variety of kits, including painting, needlecraft, beading, candle & soap making, mixed media crafts, and more. After checking out the Creative Girls Club for my daughters and being really impressed with it, I decided to check out their woman’s craft kits, too! Annie’s sent me a couple kits to try — and they were so fun that I used them as part of my weekly crafting goal in 2021! These are great gift ideas for teenagers, too! Your first box will be $4.99 + shipping after code CRYSTAL at checkout. Young Woodworkers Kit Club: $4.99 + shipping! If you have a child interested in woodworking or you’re looking for a craft kit that’s not specifically tailored to girls, this kit is for you! These kits introduce a wide variety of woodworking skills including learning to use small screws and nails, becoming practiced in using sandpaper to round off edges, handling a hammer, learning the importance of making careful measurements, and so much more! Kids will make a variety of crafts and toys they can enjoy immediately, and have fun learning as they go! Silas has tried a few of these kits and really loves them! His favorites so far have been the marshmallow launcher and candy dispenser. (Of course, he kept asking when we could buy candy to put inside the machine!) Your first box will be $4.99 + shipping after code CRYSTAL at checkout. {Note: On all of these deals, you’ll be charged at the regular monthly price each month after your first discounted box. But it’s really easy to pause or cancel your membership at any time after receiving your first box. Simply log in to your account and follow the instructions to cancel.} Go here to get your exclusive Annie’s Craft Kits Club Discount! [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Royal Caribbean warns Omicron will delay return to profitability [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] With dozens of health insurance companies fighting tooth and nail for business, picking the right plan to suit your needs can get daunting even for the savviest of buyers. You may find yourself in a situation where you have all the essential features that you need to be covered but are unwilling to pay extra for services that you don’t anticipate using. John Mayne, Executive Director at Coverfox.com, says, “The medical inflation of India was at 7.7 per cent in June 2021 as against 3.8 per cent in Dec 2019. Even the cost of hospitalization has gone through the roof, especially with the pandemic. This is why it’s worth it to carefully weigh one’s options with medical insurance before settling on a plan.” Here are some of the common mistakes and how to avoid them: Insufficient coverage: If you are looking for coverage that will be available at the time of a medical emergency, it would be a good idea to pick an option with unrestricted benefit. Check the pre and post-hospitalization expenses, availability of health check-ups, waiting period, etc. Mayne says, “A thumb rule states that medical coverage should be equal to 50 per cent of your annual income added with 100 per cent of all hospitalization expenses in the last 3 years. However, most people do not have sufficient coverage and it is not increased according to a rise in income.” Not disclosing all medical conditions: Experts say it is imperative to disclose all medical conditions of self and family history at the time of opting for the health plan so that there is no concern at the time of claim. Not understanding all terms and conditions: Some health plans have room rent capping, co-payment and deductibles, which is not considered at the time of opting for a plan. “When it comes to the claim settlement, failing to read the exclusion list when purchasing an insurance plan may cost the policyholder a lot of money,” says Mayne. Insufficient research: With the advent of technology, every detail is available online. Experts point out this is where research plays an important role. Comparing the plans, reading the fine print of every policy has become important and needs to be considered before opting for the plan. Not upgrading with change in lifestyle: Lifestyle ailments are on the rise and hence needs to be covered adequately. Critical illnesses, personal accident coverage, etc. needs to be availed either as an add-on or as a separate standalone plan. Purchasing health insurance only in old age: To avoid an unforeseeable medical emergency or large premium payments for coverage later, Mayne suggests, one should opt for a health plan young so that one gets wider coverage and the waiting periods are over before the actual need arises.  The out-of-pocket expenses in India are as high as 62.6 per cent of the total medical expenses, which means only 37.4 per cent is covered by health insurance provided by the government, organisation and self.  “If these common mistakes are avoided at the time of opting for the health insurance plan, it would ensure that one does not need to dip into their savings to pay for the healthcare treatments,” adds Mayne.  [ad_2] Source link