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[ad_1] In this HW+ Slack Q&A, HousingWire Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami gives the inside scoop on where rates are headed, his insights on the latest economic reports and more. As a member of HW+, you can us join for regular 30-minute Slack Q&As, where we invite the HW Media newsroom to break down the hottest topics in the industry. The Q&A was hosted in the HW+ Slack channel, which is exclusively available to members. To get access to the next Q&A, you can join HW+ here. The following Q&A has been lightly edited for length and clarity. This Q&A was originally hosted on April 6th. HousingWire: To begin, how is the supply data looking this year now that we are in April? Logan Mohtashami: Supply has gotten worse and worse this year, every single week in 2022 on a year-over-year basis. The most recent data shows us down 17.6% on a year-over-year basis, and we are in April! This was the last thing we needed to see for the Housing Market, which went from unhealthy to savagely unhealthy. What I am hoping for is that higher rates create more days on the market, cool price growth down, and at some point this year, we stop being negative and be positive on a year-over-year basis. We started the year out at all-time lows and it got worse as the year went on. Seasonal inventory is about to rise, so let’s hope for the best. HousingWire: Do you think more reports, like the one from the Dallas Fed, will start to use the word bubble? Logan Mohtashami: Whenever home prices are rising, and then rates rise, people look up the term Housing Bubble; it’s the nature of the beast. I liked the Dallas Fed’s article; I thought they were much calmer about the housing market than I am. However, the demand curve of what we have in housing too doesn’t resemble the speculation demand curve of what we saw from 2002-to 2005. So the type of massive decline in sales in such a short term isn’t going to happen. A good example is last week’s purchase application data was up 1% week to week, which was down 3% week to week. Even today, we aren’t even at 2002 levels in the MBA index. So the type of boom and bust we would need to see to reflect bubble speculation demand isn’t in this market like we saw from 2002-to 2005. Housing peaked in 2005 and then declined for many years. Also, the LTV data lines are much different: Mortgage credit can’t get too tight in relation to where the demand is currently. HousingWire: The 3rd recession red flag is raised, what should be looked at now going ahead? Logan Mohtashami: Yes, the 3rd recession red flag was raised. The Inverted Yield curve, which I was on watch for since Thanksgiving of 2021. My first three recession red flags are more about the progression of an economic expansion that has matured. The next 3 are much more important. Leading Economic Index, typically falls 4-6 months into every recession, barring a shock-like COVID-19. We are still okay here. These are the components of this index: HousingWire: Why do you believe higher rates are a good thing for housing? Logan Mohtashami: New home sales and housing starts typically fall in a recession. We do have risk toward this sector now with rising rates, so this sector needs a close eye on. Higher rates are a must because the way we were heading, we would have easily had 40% home price growth in 3 years with inventory looking to start a fresh new all-time low in 2023. This is not a positive for the housing market but a real net negative. The only thing we have that can cool down housing is higher rates. So, since I lost my five-year growth 23% cumulative price growth model in two years, I need to see inventory rise and prices cool off. We need balance, and we don’t have any in our housing market. Sub 4% rates weren’t creating any balance; they made things worse, and so sticking to my 2020, then what can cool down housing? A 10-year yield over 1.94% will, we got there, and for me, it’s a good thing. HousingWire: To end, are homebuilders at risk in this higher rate world? Logan Mohtashami: Yes, the builders have many homes that haven’t been finished yet, and rates have gone up 1.50% – 2% on these people. We need to keep an eye out on the cancelation data in the upcoming months. Higher rates are alarming for the builders; their stocks are down big, much like in 2018. This is a risk to housing construction because 5% mortgage rates paused construction for 30 months back then. Have more questions for Logan? Share them in the comment section below. We will work to address them here or in the next Slack Q&A session. The post Here’s why the housing market needs higher mortgage rates appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] Boeing Says Conflict in Ukraine is Hurting Orders, Analyst Reaction Mixed [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Infosys reported strong quarterly numbers with net profit rising 12% on-year basis to come at Rs 5,686 crore in the January-March period, while revenue surged 22.7% to Rs 32,276 crore. Infosys results were in-line with street expectations as analysts had already expected the IT major to report growth led by momentum from financial services, retail, communication, energy and manufacturing. Infosys has also recommended a final dividend of Rs 16 per equity. The record date for the proposed final dividend is 1 June 2022. Infosys’ share price ended Wednesday’s trading session with gains at Rs 1748 per share, up 0.41%. The share price is down 8% so far in 2022.  Quarter in review Revenue came in at Rs 32,276 crore against Rs 26,311 crore a year ago. Up 22.7%. Operating Margin was reported at 21.5%, down from 24.5% during the same period last year. Net profit for the January-March quarter stood at Rs 5,686 crore, up from 5,076 crore a year ago.  Total employees at the end March 2022 were 3,14,015, up from 2,59,619 last year.  Free cash flow was reported at Rs 5,769 crore, down from Rs 5,824 crore, a year ago. Growth was supported by large deal wins with TCV of $9.5 billion. “Infosys delivered the highest annual growth in a decade with broad-based performance driven by deeply differentiated digital and Infosys Cobalt led cloud capabilities, powered by ‘One Infosys’ approach,” said Salil Parekh, CEO and MD, Infosys. “With the acceleration of digital disruptions across industries, we see immense potential to engage and partner with clients as they transform, adapt and thrive. We will scale talent globally, invest in employees and accelerate innovation and digital capabilities to capitalize on the expanding market opportunity”, he added. For the current fiscal year, Infosys management expects revenue growth of 13%-15% in constant currency terms and an operating margin of 21%-23%.  [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Fast-rising interest rates, up 1.5 percentage points over the past three months, have thrown a wrench into the mortgage origination and private-label securitization markets. Refinancing is plummeting, purchase activity is softening, and rate volatility is making secondary market deals harder to price efficiently across prime and non-prime/non-QM deals.  In the face of all that dour news for the housing market, there is one bright spot — a sector that benefits from rising rates. That is the market for mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).  As rates rise, MSR prepayment speeds drop — a byproduct of diminished refinancing activity. That, in turn, amplifies the value of MSRs because they pay out over a longer period. “The focus on inflation and the attempts by the Fed to control inflation through their rate hikes has created upward pressure on mortgage-related financial instruments,” said Tom Piercy, managing director of Denver-based Incenter Mortgage Advisors. “As such, we begin to see prepayment curves adjust [downward] for both current par [mortgage] originations and the below current-par-rate vintages of 2020 and 2021.   “This impacts origination volume negatively [particularly on the refinancing side] but provides for substantial pickup in value of MSR assets across all vintages.” For Incenter, that “pickup” has translated into MSR transactions in January involving agency bulk offerings worth a combined value of $113.2 billion, which is close to what Incenter historically has sold in an entire year. (Agency deals involve Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and/or Ginnie Mae MSRs.) For February, Incenter traded just under $60 billion in agency MSRs, Piercy said, including two bulk deals involving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MSRs valued at $12.5 billion and $11.5 billion. “There were no publicly offered deals through the firm in the month of March,” Piercy added. “We anticipate April to be another active month as we do have three deals in the queue for public offering.” Those are in addition to an already announced $7 billion bulk offering of Fannie and Freddie MSRs. Incenter is not alone in tapping into the red-hot MSR market. The Prestwick Mortgage Group, an Alexandra, Virginia-based MSR advisory and brokerage firm, in March put at least three agency MSR bulk packages on the market, the two largest as part of a strategic partnership with San Diego-based Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT), according to bid documents provided to HousingWire.  Two of those deals involved servicing rights on pools of Fannie Mae loans with a combined value of $610 million — a $242 million deal being brokered for an undisclosed Michigan bank and the other a $368 million offering by an undisclosed Pennsylvania bank. The third was a $640 million offering by a nonbank of Fannie and Freddie MSRs. In addition, Prestwick has at least three additional nonbank MSR transactions in motion with bid due dates in April — a $1.6 billion Fannie and Ginnie Mae offering; a $520 million Fannie offering; and a $1.8 billion Fannie and Freddie package also being offered in conjunction with MCT, according to offering circulars. “We’ve already seen about as much bulk [MSR] activity year to date [in 2022] as we saw all of last year,” said Michael Carnes, managing director of the MSR valuation group for New York-based Mortgage Industry Advisory Corp. (MIAC). “…In the category of seller risks, the possibility exists that certain buyers could blow through their entire 2022 [MSR] acquisition budget. “I’m not suggesting that it has happened yet, but looking through my crystal ball, I’m viewing that as a possibility. As someone who’s transacted these deals for 30 years, I do know some of these buyers get refreshed budgets at the beginning of the year and have to go back to their investors for approval to get more, and they may very well be granted that approval, but it’s a consideration nonetheless.” MIAC year to date through March had brokered at least five agency MSR bulk offerings valued in total at $8.8 billion, according to bid documents, including a $6.2 billion transaction in January and a $1.9 billion deal in March. MIAC has three additional agency MSR deals already on the market in April valued in total at about $6 billion. “We’re also releasing a $1.8 billion [MSR] deal and a $3.6 billion deal,” Carnes added. “The 1.8 billion should come out later this week, and then we may push the 3.6 billion offering into next week.  “So those are all coming to market within the next week and a half. …The volumes are just incredible.” Carnes said the buyers in the market for these MSR packages include banks putting their deposits to work and well-capitalized nonbanks.  Data provided by New York-based mortgage-data analytics firm Recursion, shows that year to date through the first week of April some $255 billion in agency MSRs were transferred between institutions, with nonbanks being both the leading purchasers and sellers.   Banks acquired about $66 billion in agency MSRs sold by nonbanks ($54.1 billion) and other banks ($11.9 billion), Recursion’s data shows. Nonbanks acquired $188.6 billion in agency MSRs sold by other nonbanks ($179.1 billion) and banks ($9.5 billion). The top MSR buyers over the period, according to Recursion’s data, were J.P. Morgan Chase, $39.7 billion; Lakeview Loan Servicing, $39.4 billion; Mr. Cooper, $30.6 billion and Carrington Mortgage Services, $24.5 billion.  The leading MSR sellers over the first three months of 2022 included United Wholesale Mortgage, $25.9 billion to J.P. Morgan and $16.5 billion to Matrix Financial Services Corp.; Rocket Mortgage, $25 billion to Lakeview and $5 billion to Carrington; Freedom Mortgage, $22.2 billion in MSRs sold to three separate lenders, including $7.1 billion to Rocket; and Homepoint, $12.8 billion transferred to Freedom — which also was the leading MSR purchaser in 2021 at $143.4 billion in MSRs acquired.  The MSR package sizes reflect the value of the underlying book of mortgages being serviced, not the actual sales price. In addition, the Recursion servicing-rights data reflect the agency-recorded transfer period and balance, not necessarily publicly announced sales volumes and dates. “The tide is turning because you’re looking at origination revenue declining due

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[ad_1] Marketmind: Peak hawkishness? [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] The Supreme Court on Tuesday stayed the conviction of Gujarat Congress working president Hardik Patel in a rioting and arson case. A bench of Justices S A Nazeer and Vikram Nath said this is a fit case for the high court to have stayed the conviction. At the outset, senior advocate Maninder Singh submitted that not allowing Patel to contest election is a violation of his right to freedom of expression. “It is a violation. I have already lost one chance to contest the election in 2019. We are before your lordships to get our rights under Article 19(1)(a) to be enforced. They have misused the police power. Therefore, I don’t know what they have to say, but my lords must decide this case soon,” he said. Solicitor General Tushar Mehta said the basic parameters for conviction are set. “In criminal law, there is no one standard guideline to say which one is right. Your lordship may decide the issue. Whether Patel might have won or not, is not the issue in this case,” he said. The bench then passed the order and said,”Having regard to the facts and circumstances, we are of the view that this is the fit case for the high court to have stayed the conviction. The conviction is, hereby, stayed until the appeals are decided accordingly.” The top court was hearing a plea filed by Patel against the judgment of the Gujarat High Court seeking suspension of the conviction so that he could contest the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Patel had sought a direction to suspend the conviction order passed on July 25, 2018, by a sessions court in Mahesana in Visnagar. He had also challenged the validity of the high court’s order of March 29 refusing his plea for a stay on the conviction. [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] I know I’m way behind in getting this posted and it’s now almost halfway through April, but hey, better late than never, right?? In previous years, I’ve picked a long list and big stack of books I want to read that year. I’ve found that I struggle to stick with that list because I always find so many other books I want to read and that initial list makes me feel kind of guilty that I’m not following through. Instead of trying that approach again, I’m experimenting with something different in 2022: I’m going to set monthly reading goals. At the beginning of the month, I’ll pick a stack of books I want to read that month and I’ll focus on reading those books throughout the month. This way, I can make room for the many new or new-to-me titles I discover throughout the year. Plus, I can pick fewer books to read on the months that I know there is a lot going on. My Book List for April Here is my book list for April and why I chose each title. (Note: Inclusion on this list does not mean I am recommending or endorsing the book as I haven’t read it yet! So read at your own discretion and look for my weekly book review post to hear my honest thoughts on each title!) I Guess I Haven’t Learned That Yet I’ve loved Shauna’s other books, so I am anxious to read this one — especially because I love the idea behind this book (the subtitle is, “Embracing New Ways of Living When the Old Ways Stop Working”) I already started the first few chapters and was drawn in and wished I could just sit all day and read it! The Hard Good So many people have suggested I read this book! I’m about halfway through it and can’t wait to finish it. It’s been really good so far! A Love-Stretched Life After flipping through this book when the publisher sent it to me, I realized it looked right up my alley so I added it to the top of my stack right away! Embrace Your Almost This book has been highly recommended by people I respect, so I can’t wait to dig into it. Blank Canvas I received a copy of this book in the mail from the publisher and the premise of it (a woman wakes up from a coma and has completely forgotten everything about her life) was intriguing enough that I immediately added it to my book stack for this month. Waymaker Ann Voskamp’s book, One Thousand Gifts, touched me deeply so I’m looking forward to reading this book — especially since I’ve heard it shares some of their adoption journey. When Making Others Happy is Making You Miserable I am a few chapters into this book and have heard from many that it’s a book they are very interested in and wanted me to read and review. Forgiving Paris This fiction book was highly recommended to me by multiple people. I’ve really enjoyed other Karen Kingsbury books in the past, so I can’t wait to dive into this. Raising Emotionally Strong Boys I’m a big fan of Sissy Goff’s book, Raising Worry-Free Girls, so I’m excited that there’s finally a counterpart book by her podcast co-host and counseling center co-director, David Thomas. I got to meet him when I recently did a podcast interview for their podcast, so I’m really excited to read this pre-release copy. What are you reading in April? [ad_2] Source link

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