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[ad_1] What does it mean to get a positive job report with all the talk about a recession, which ramped up starting in January 2022? Let’s look at the U.S. jobs and economic numbers as five of my six recession red flags are up today. The June data shows that we added another 372,000 jobs as we get closer to the employment numbers before COVID-19. We did have 74,000 negative revisions to the previous reports, however, the internals of this jobs report is the most interesting aspect. Let’s take a look together.From the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. The unemployment rate for men and women ages 20 and over is 3.3%. A tighter labor market is a good thing; this means people with less educational backgrounds can get employed as we have many jobs that don’t require a college education. The unemployment rate did tick up for those with less than a high school diploma in this report.  Here is a breakdown of the unemployment rate and educational attainment for those 25 years and older: —Less than a high school diploma: 5.8%.—High school graduate and no college: 3.6%—Some college or associate degree: 3.1%—Bachelor’s degree and higher: 2.1% During a job recovery, the data line I love to track is the employment-to-population data for the prime-age workforce, ages 25-54. That’s the proper working-age workforce. The employment-to-population percentage did fall in this report. It’s currently at 79.8% and the pre-COVID-19 level was 80.5%. This is something I am keeping an eye on for the future. As an analyst, the rate of change of a trend is always crucial.  As the COVID-19 recovery got more robust, the internal labor market dynamics have been very positive for a while now, as we had a lot of job openings that needed to be filled. In fact, over a year ago, when we had a jobs report that missed estimates, I stressed early in this recovery that job openings would get to 10 million, which nobody, not even the people who work at the BLS, thought was possible. Today, job openings are at 11.254 million, and this data line also had a noticeable decline. Remember, the rate of change is usually essential if it becomes a trend. Total jobs data Even though I retired my America is Back Recovery model on Dec. 9, 2020, I knew getting all the jobs back that were lost to COVID-19 would take some time. Even though the recovery was the fastest ever, getting all the labor back from a global pandemic and having an aging society wasn’t as fast as some had hoped. However, I was confident we should get it all job back by September of 2022. —Feb 2020: 152,504,000 jobs—July 2022: 151,980,000 jobs That leaves us with just 524,000 jobs left to make up over the next three months, which means we need to average adding 174,666 jobs per month. And the unemployment rate currently stands at 3.6%. Looking at the jobs data and which sector added jobs in March, construction and manufacturing jobs came in positively, and we only lost jobs in the government. Job openings in construction and manufacturing have picked up recently. Even though manufacturing job openings did slip in the last job openings data, it is still historically high. However, keep an eye out for the rate of change in labor data. Recession red flag watch Where are we in the economic cycle? Five of my six recession red flags are up, so until they are all up, I don’t use the word recession. Let’s review them in order, as my model is based on an economic progression model, which isn’t the most exciting way to look at economics. However, economics done right should be boring. Here are the recession red flags: 1. The unemployment rate hits 4%. This is a progression red flag, meaning the economic expansion is more mature. 2. The Federal Reserve starts to raise rates. Another progression red flag; expansion is more mature. 3. The inverted yield curve. This is more of a market-driven bond yield red flag. I had been on an inverted yield curve watch since Thanksgiving of 2021. This is when the two-year yield and 10-year yield slap high fives and say hi to each other. It’s another progression red flag, the more mature stage of the economy. 4. Find the overheating economic sector where demand can’t be sustained. Once that demand comes back to normal, people will be laid off. We see this in the durable goods data. A few companies are laying people off or putting into place a hiring freeze. 5.  New home sales, housing starts, and permits fall into a recession. Once mortgage rates rise, the new home sales sector does get hit harder than the existing home sales market. The homebuilder confidence index is falling noticeably, and while we never had the housing build-up in credit and sales that we saw in 2005, the builders will slow housing production down with higher rates. I raised my fifth recession red flag in the month of June. Builders Confidence Index: The final recession red flag! 6. Leading economic index declines 4-6 months before a recession. Historically, the Leading Economic Index fades into every recession outside a one-time huge economic shock like COVID-19. So far, it’s been declining for two months, slowly. However, you can connect the dots on this in the future months if you know the components of this index. As the economic cycle matures, we must look at the economy differently. I believe progression economic models are more valuable than screaming the word recession. I am a big believer in the rate-of-change data: even if the data looks solid historically, we need to be mindful of inflection points in each economic cycle. This is

[ad_1] This week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. The first half of 2022 asset scorecard—not good The S&P 500 entered a bear market last month and recorded its worst first half since 1962, down 20.6%. The NASDAQ fell almost 30%, while the S&P/TSX Composite ended the first six months down 11%.  And of course, there was no safety in bonds. Thanks to rising rates, bonds did not go up in price as stocks got crushed. Central bankers turned hawkish to combat inflation. Yields on global bonds rose from an average of 1.3% on January 1, 2022 to 3% by the end of June, leading to a 14% drop in global bond returns.  Here’s a table outlining the returns for Canadian sectors, factors and bonds. You’ll also find broad international equity markets for comparison. All are listed in Canadian dollars (CAD).  Source: Mercer / Refinitiv  As for U.S. sectors, you’ll find these in this Liz Sonders tweet.  Weaker day that capped worst 1H of year since 1970; Energy led sectors lower, followed by Comm Serv, Cons Discr, & Tech; Utilities were decisive haven and leader; Staples outperformed peers in June … NASDAQ took hardest relative hit today and finished first half of year -29.5% pic.twitter.com/iDuDlhbOix — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 30, 2022 The defensive sectors are doing as promised.  While still +28% YTD, Energy is now -24% from this year’s high, reached exactly 4 weeks ago (4th-largest YTD drawdown among large-cap sectors); Utilities, Health Care & Consumer Staples have managed to keep their drawdowns below 10% YTD⁦@SPDJIndices⁩ pic.twitter.com/SWOD84Nazg — Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2022 We are now seeing more attractive valuations for equities and bonds. The one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for the S&P 500 dropped from 21 times at the start of the year to around 16 times last month. (Since 1990, the median multiple is 15.4 times.) That said, with economic growth slowing down, this could be a headwind for corporate profits.  Earnings season starts next week.  According to its Q3 outlook report last month, BlackRock is positioning portfolios “more defensively.” The asset manager recommended a “barbell” strategy (balancing assets, such as holdings for corrections and recessions). “The optimal portfolio to combat inflation is very different from the optimal portfolio for a recession,” it said. Energy and financials can serve as inflation fighters, while health care provides “a dose of resilience.” I’d add consumer staples, utilities and pipelines to that list of defensive holdings.  And speaking of defense, bonds are getting some love again.  Bond yields are more attractive, so bonds might start being bonds again. Bonds should benefit as—rather, if—recession risks start to outweigh inflation concerns.  Data source: Seeking Alpha, 7 to 10 Year Treasuries (IEF) Scott Barlow shared this on Twitter. (FYI: 1H represents the first half of 2022, 2H the second half of 2022.) “Historically, a negative 1H has led to a negative 2H 44% of the time, vs. just 19% when 1H was positive…” Pensions are in good shape  Need some good news? Rare these days, I know.  Despite a multitude of factors—including historically high levels of inflation, recession fears and year-to-date asset losses—the funded positions of most defined benefit (DB) pension plans improved during the second quarter of 2022, according to the Mercer Pension Health Pulse (MPHP) study. That includes CPP, too.  The MPHP, which tracks the median solvency ratio of the DB pension plans within Mercer’s pension database, increased from 108% as at March 31, 2022, to 109% as at June 30, 2022. Beat the TSX portfolio handily beats the John Heinzl portfolio Here is the mid-year review of the Beat The TSX Portfolio. Simple rules-based BTSX beats the thinking of experts such as the John Heinzl portfolio, writes Matt Poyner at dividendstrategy.ca.  The high-yield dividend strategy has had a good run in Canada and in the U.S. in 2022. I also track the Beat The TSX Portfolio on my blog.  Bank brokerages remove competition for their savings accounts.  A few banks in Canada do not offer high-interest savings (cash) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at their discount brokerages. The discount brokerages at Royal Bank of Canada (RBC Direct), Bank of Montreal (BMO InvestorLine) and Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD Direct) don’t offer cash ETFs. Why not? Who knows, but I do know these cash ETFs would compete with the banks’ own paltry “savings” accounts that pay next to nothing with respect to interest rates.  I connected with Mark Noble of Horizons ETFs over email. He says if you’re a TD client, you can call in to access cash ETFs, but you would not be able to purchase them online.  That’s similar to the TD e-series index funds listed in the Canadian Couch Potato series. They are a wonderful option, but good luck getting a TD advisor to help you find them.  “Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank are offering these cash ETFs, as well as all of the non-bank owned discount brokerages” wrote Noble.  The above situation is “curious” as investors can access higher-risk offerings from the bank discount brokerages.  Noble wrote me this via email:  “Restrictions on ETFs have been commonplace in the full-service channel (ie: IIROC licensed advisors) since there are regulatory and fiduciary obligations that can make offering some ETFs (ie: leveraged ETFs, Marijuana ETFs and cryptocurrencies) difficult. These restrictions have never historically been in place at the self-directed brokerages, where effectively investors have been able to buy any Canadian-listed ETF.” Here are a few considerations on cash ETFs vs holding a high-interest savings account (HISA) or guaranteed investment certificates (GICs) directly with a bank, such as EQ Bank. Rates have certainly taken off the last few months, with EQ Bank GIC yields well above the cash ETFs. Thanks to Mark Noble for the below details. Cash ETFs High quality lenders: The deposits on these ETFs are with Schedule 1 Canadian banks generally. If you look at the underlying deposits, they are generally with large, well-established Canadian banks. Generally higher yields: These

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[ad_1] The post A History of Women’s Financial Rights appeared first on Millennial Money. Historically, women have not had the same access to wealth as men did. It wasn’t until the 1970s that women in the United States were allowed to open bank accounts and have credit cards without a male cosigner. And today, women typically step out of the workforce to care for aging relatives, young children, or various other familial responsibilities. We’ve seen in full force during the pandemic when almost one million women stepped out to care for loved ones, keep families afloat, and perform unpaid labor. During this time, men continued to earn unencumbered by societal pressures to do it all. Together, these social norms paint a dire picture of women’s finances in general. As a demographic, we are more likely to put our needs on hold to care for those around us, even if it is detrimental to our financial health. While noble, putting ourselves in financial harm isn’t the best solution to large problems. Instead, we should be striving for financial independence, which will allow us to weather uncertainty with more financial stability, regardless of our choice to remain in the workforce. What Is Financial Independence? Financial independence is the ability to live off of means you’ve acquired for yourself, without needing to rely on a job.  You’ve spent time and energy amassing wealth to protect you from life’s misfortunes and you no longer need to work. You may still choose to work, but you don’t have to.  With so many pressures women face in society, it’s important that we focus on financial independence as a way to bring gendered financial equity. Learn More: What’s the Difference Between Financial Freedom and Financial Independence? Start Your Financial Independence Journey How to Live Within Your Means for Financial Independence Why Financial Independence Matters to Women  The world is set up financially against women. We have had to fight for equality, and even still there is a gender pay gap, occupational segregation, investment gap, and debt gap stopping us from having the same advantages as our male counterparts. However, instead of those being barriers against financial independence, they are why we should strive to seek financial independence. Gender Pay Gap The gender pay gap is one of the glaring atrocities in our society. White women earn 82 percent of what men earn. Furthermore, women of color earn even less than that. Black women earn 64 percent of what white men earn; and Hispanic women earn a mere 57 percent of what white men earn. And, the gender pay gap widens over time. Women in their 20s and early 30s earn only a few hundred dollars a paycheck less than men, but once they’re in their 40s and 50s, the gap widens to thousands of dollars. Occupational Segregation And that’s not the only way women are financially less secure than men. Women-led professions trail male-lead professions in earnings. A teacher, for instance, starts out with a salary of $40,000 or $50,000, whereas an engineer might earn closer to $80,000 to $90,000.  And women, especially women of color, are more likely to stay in low-wage work. Women make up two-thirds of all tipped workers. Additionally, the percentage of Black women who are full-time minimum-wage workers is higher than that of any other racial group. Women and Student Loan Debt Not only do we earn less respectively and collectively, but we have more debt, including student loan debt. In fact, women carry two-thirds of the national student loan debt. We are more likely than men to have high monthly payments, despite earning less than men. The average student loan payment among women is $307; this cuts into our ability to pay other bills and get ahead financially. Worse still, is that Black women carry the most student loan debt. After 12 years of paying down student loans, Black women owe an average of 13 percent more than they borrowed. Gender Investment Gap Additionally, women are less likely to invest than men. In part, this phenomenon is because women are taught to save money from a young age whereas men are taught to invest. Ironic, because women’s portfolios consistently outperform their male counterpart’s portfolios. The pandemic has encouraged more women to invest, and nationally, we’ve seen a 50 percent increase in women investing since 2018. But, we still trail behind men who invest more aggressively than women. This investing gap could cost women millions over their lifetime. Why Does All This Matter for Financial Independence? With so much set against women financially, it’s important that we do what we can to protect ourselves. This starts with financial protection.  Pursuing financial independence gives us a buffer between ourselves and the world. And, while the world might not be designed for women to succeed, we can create our own path to success. Gender Affects Financial Literacy  Men and women are taught about finances differently. Men are taught to grow their money and invest while women are taught how to budget and save their money. While both are important aspects of financial literacy, arguably, learning how to grow your money will help you more in the long term. This is why financial independence is so important for women. It teaches us skills we need to prepare ourselves for financial troubles and also common things like retirement. Without financial independence, women are not prepared for the future. And that’s a problem. The Growth of FIRE among Women  When the Financial Independence, Retire Early (FIRE) movement was popular, male voices filled the scenes. Upper middle class white men relied on their working wives to help fund their retirements and essentially glorified the status of the stay-at-home dad. There wasn’t much financial inclusion. Then, Vicki Robins stepped onto the scene. Robins wrote the ever-popular book Your Money or Your Life and became a revolutionary voice on the scene. In a lot of ways because she showed women that they were a part of the movement as

[ad_1] My older sister, Brigette, shares her shopping trips and menu plans every week! You can go HERE to see all of her weekly menu plans and you can go HERE to read all about her family! We had company at our house all of last week, and I *might* have bought way more than enough food, haha! I didn’t need to buy as much this week after looking at what we still had left in the pantry and freezer. Aldi 1 gallon Milk – $2.55 1 gallon Orange Juice – $3.99 1/2 gallon Unsweetened Almond Milk – $1.89 1 16-oz bag Shredded Cheddar Cheese – $2.57 1 8-oz pkg Sliced Cheese – $1.65 3 8-oz chunks Cheese – $4.59 7 single-serve cartons Greek Yogurt – $4.13 1 24-oz carton Cottage Cheese – $1.79 1 dozen Eggs – $2.35 1 pkg Turkey Bacon – $2.19 1 pkg Hot Dog – $2.59 1-lb Sausage – $2.95 1 16-oz pkg Deli Meat – $4.95 1 pkg Hot Dog Buns – $0.65 1 pkg Deli Rolls – $2.95 1 box Crispy Rice – $1.19 1 box Rice Squares – $1.49 1 bag Kettle Chips – $1.99 1 bag Corn Chips – $1.69 1 32-oz box Elbow Macaroni – $2.09 1 32-oz box Spaghetti – $1.19 1 pkg Romaine Lettuce – $2.95 1 3-ct pkg Multi-Colored Peppers – $2.99 1 Watermelon – $3.95 1 bunch Bananas – $1.12 4 cans Green Beans – $2.08 1 bag Lemons – $2.99 1 jar Peanut Butter – $1.39 Grocery Total for the Week: $68.90 We don’t have a garden as we live in the middle of town and our backyard is completely wooded, but my 11-yr planted a few tomato and zucchini plants this year. This is his harvest from the last few days! And the jams are homemade gifts from my in-laws. This was a surprise Instacart order from my sister Olivia. She heard I was down with a nasty 103-degree flu and these amazing healthy items arrived at my door within the hour! I have the BEST sisters!!! Weekly Menu Plan Breakfasts Cereal, Oatmeal, Fruit, Yogurt, Smoothies, Zucchini Bread, Veggie Omelets Lunches Deli Meat Sandwiches, Chips, Peppers x 2 Leftovers x 3 Bananas with Peanut Butter and Jelly, Carrots, Apples Hot Dogs, Baked Potato Fries, Bananas Dinners Hamburgers on the Grill, Grilled Zucchini, Watermelon Pancakes, Bacon, Scrambled Eggs, Broccoli Chicken and Rice Soup, Biscuits Sausage Zucchini Stir-Fry, Rice Macaroni and Cheese, Tossed Salad, Green Beans, Zucchini Muffins Taco Salad, Green Beans Spaghetti, Homemade French Bread, Spinach Salad, Broccoli [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] Founded in 2018, Gurugram-based Fixcraft aims to disrupt the auto service and repair market. The start-up looks to bring in high-quality services at economical costs and has been working on creating a strong relationship with the customer by building trust via a transparent service/repair process. Having been in the industry for a few years now, we spoke to Vivek Sharma, CEO & Founder of Fixcraft to get an idea about his experience thus far and where the market is headed with the onset of EVs. Q. What were the challenges you faced both in terms of customer service and onboarding reliable mechanic partners?  Since we started, the first challenge was to convince the customer on how we will be able to deliver the same or better quality than the authorised service centres. We had to explain the process that we follow to execute the work. Technology and a well-trained team played a big part in the same. Another challenge was to convince the customers to let us take their cars to a well-equipped Fixcraft garage which may not be very close to where the customer lives. Real-time tracking of cars helped us solve the trust issue there. Finally, the trust barrier regarding the quality of the work was solved through an unconditional warranty on the work performed. This was something unheard of in the sector and we got a warm reception there. On the execution side, the churn of good mechanics/painters is an industry problem. When we started, instead of treating the staff as the bottom of the pyramid entity, we treated them as leaders who will make or break us. We provided them with the best-in-industry pay scales, annual appraisals, ESIC and PF benefits and accommodation as well for the needs. This helped us attract and retain the best talent in the industry and we are providing them training and certification as well to enable them to be better professionals. The learning on the way has been very simple and encouraging. If we stay true to our promise of excellent quality and trust, the sky’s the limit. Q. Till date how many vehicles have you serviced and your expansion plans? We are a 35,000+ strong car lovers community and are growing steadily with expansion. We are present across North and South India right now; and intend to expand our presence in West and East India in the coming months. In the next 12 months we are looking at servicing more than 1 lakh customers and have presence across 10 metros. Q. What is your customer retention rate? We operate at a very high NPS (net promoter score) which is a proxy of how likely a customer is to recommend us to their friends and family. In our industry where the average score stands at about 20, our NPS is 60. With time, we see this number increasing as we are continuously improving. The quality of service we provide also adds to the customer retention rate. We have certain customers who are very regular with their services with us. Q. What are the key factors that influence if a customer is likely to repeat business with Fixcraft?  At Fixcraft, we are driven by a simple fundamental principle. Before delivery of any car, the final Quality Check inspector will have to answer one question – ‘Will he/she take the delivery of this vehicle happily if this was his/her car?’. The car is delivered when the answer is a resounding yes. Typically, a good experience is a combination of multiple factors like quality of work, timely delivery, updates on multiple steps, communication with the team/app and seamless execution of payments and delivery. We have been solving these step by step.  One of the factors which are different from the hygiene factors mentioned earlier is our seamless integration with all insurance providers in the country. We are able to provide cashless facilities at all our centres. In a nutshell, our customer obsession is one factor which enables us to get our customers to come back to us again rather than just a price point.  Q. Is the Indian market poised for the growth of this sector? One may argue that the current market downturn will impact the growth of the auto service sector. However, some basic fundamentals are in favour of considerable growth in this sector for India. The per capita penetration of vehicle parc is still very low in India (around 2.2 per cent) and car ownership is still a celebrated moment in the middle-class segment. The emotion-driven availability of entry-level cars and improved financing availability will keep driving the auto sector’s growth. Along with new cars, there is a very healthy used car market in India that is growing steadily with ownership duration coming down. Since the repair market is catered to by both used as well as new cars, we see a very robust path for this sector in the coming times.  Q. With electric vehicles gaining popularity, what are your current offerings for the segment?  The conversion to EVs from ICEs is a welcome change for the entire ecosystem, be it the manufacturers, service chains or the end customers. For now, there is a considerable dent in the two-wheeler market, and we are seeing early adoption signs in four-wheelers as well, led by the fleet operators. The personal car usage of EVs is yet to explode in India and will require a lot of work on infrastructure, financing, and superior products among others. From a service provider’s point of view, the market is still evolving as the need for service will also go through a dramatic shift.  For Fixcraft, since we are a one-stop solution for all car care needs, it’s just one vertical which will go through the change. Other services like body repairs, AC services, tyre and batteries are independent of transmission, and hence remain unchanged.  The controversial view is that an EV customer is more aware and is more abreast with technology, we, however,

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