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[ad_1] A few months ago, the United States housing market failed Econ 101. Table 1, below, reports the 10 hottest U.S. metropolitan areas in February 2022, based on year-over-year growth in median listing price according to the residential real estate listing website, Realtor.com. The table also reports the year-over-year percent change in new listings for each market. Table 1: 10 Hottest Housing Markets out of the Top 250 Metro Areas, February 2022 Metro Area Median Listing Price (Y/Y) New Listing Count (Y/Y) Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 64.5% -8.9% Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL 53.0% -16.7% Bellingham, WA 51.7% -8.3% Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 50.8% -18.2% Santa Fe, NM 48.9% -4.7% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 45.0% -0.8% Punta Gorda, FL 43.6% -7.7% Torrington, CT 43.0% -4.6% Panama City, FL 39.7% 17.9% Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 39.6% -6.2% Source: Realtor.com     Even though sellers’ median valuations in each of these housing markets grew by an astounding 40% or more over the previous year, only one market, Panama City, Florida, saw a year-over-year increase in the number of homes newly listed for sale. The finding was equally confounding on the other side of the distribution where house price growth was weakest; though home values dropped by at least 10% in each of the 10 coldest markets, the number of homes added to the for-sale inventory increased in eight of them. These results defy economic logic; a big price increase is supposed to attract more sellers into a market, not fewer. When economists observe this pattern, they usually attribute it to a downward shift in supply that is unrelated to price. For example, if a natural disaster destroyed thousands of homes in a housing market, prices would rise due to the loss of inventory. But this explanation cannot support the data in Table 1; no calamity decimated housing markets across the United States in February. A different explanation makes more sense: Growth in the for-sale inventory slowed in nearly all the hottest markets a few months ago because of speculation. Despite unprecedented house price appreciation, homeowners in the hottest metro areas gambled that their property values would continue to grow at red-hot rates, and these gamblers did not want to risk missing out on an even bigger payday in the near future. That “near future” may now be in the past; the latest data indicate that homeowner speculation in the housing market has come to an end. This change is evident in Table 2, which lists the 10 hottest housing markets in June, the most recent month of available data from Realtor.com. Contrary to the findings from five months ago, eight of these housing markets reported a year-over-year increase in the number of new listings, which is the supply response normally follows a hefty price increase. Gamblers in the housing market appear to be content with their gains, and now they are cashing in their chips. Table 2: 10 Hottest Housing Markets out of the Top 250 Metro Areas, June 2022 Metro Area Median Listing Price (Y/Y) New Listing Count (Y/Y) Panama City, FL 42.9% 65.6% Cedar Rapids, IA 40.9% 6.8% Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA 40.7% -2.9% Topeka, KS 40.7% -12.0% Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL 40.1% 4.1% Fayetteville, NC 37.7% 9.0% Killeen-Temple, TX 36.1% 31.2% North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL 36.0% 21.2% Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH 36.0% 18.3% Punta Gorda, FL 35.3% 7.5% Source: Realtor.com     The end of seller speculation in the housing market is long overdue and welcome news for buyers. If this trend persists, it will mean that more existing homes will soon be added to housing markets that have been starved for inventory for the last two years. This rise in inventory will tilt the bargaining power in these market toward buyers, and house price growth will ease. Early signs of blossoming competition for buyers are already evident in the data from Reator.com. Nationwide, the number of listings with a price cut surged 74% month-over-month in May and 51% month-over-month in June, easily the biggest increases on record. But some analysts may be missing these signals. For example, in the face of rising mortgage rates and reduced affordability, forecasters at Realtor.com recently revised their prediction for the annual change in existing home sales in 2022 from 6.6% increase to 6.7% decrease. But contrary to this new projection, home sales will not falter if sellers are speculating no longer, adding more inventory to the market, and settling for lower prices. The forecast is uncertain because economic fundamentals have been absent from the housing market for a while. Figure 1 below plots the correlation between the year-over-year change in the median listing price and the year-over-year change in new listing count for the top 250 housing markets in the nation. This analysis is restricted to the top 250 markets because smaller markets typically have fewer than 200 active listings per month, which makes average values more susceptible to a handful of random, unusual events. (Graphs for cut-offs ranging between the top 100 and top 400 housing markets have the same pattern.) Figure 1: Correlation between Median Listing Price (Y/Y) and New Listing Count (Y/Y), Top 250 Metro Areas Source: Author calculations, Realtor.com As previously mentioned, conventional economic reasoning predicts that housing markets with faster house-price growth will attract more listings; in other words, the correlation between changes in these two series should be positive. But Figure 1 illustrates that the data over the last five years generally contradicts this expectation. Since 2017, the start of the series from Realtor.com, this correlation has been negative 80% of the time. Steady house price growth has not encouraged more listings in the hottest markets. When put in context, this history makes sense. During the earliest years of the series, many residences were still worth less than they were at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. This was especially true in low- and moderate-income ZIP codes. Even though homeowners had enjoyed several years of rapid house-price appreciation during the recovery, many resisted selling their properties at a loss. The

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[ad_1] Over the past few years, lenders have put a microscope to their processes to see where they can improve the borrower journey. But there may be one area they’re still overlooking. HousingWire sat down with Kara Shipulski, vice president of strategic partnerships at Liberty Mutual, and Sean Larney, ​​vertical manager of strategic partnerships at Liberty Mutual, to discuss how partnering with a nationally recognized insurance company improve borrower engagement for lenders. HousingWire: With rising rates and dramatically lower refi volume, mortgage companies across the industry now have to do more with less to be profitable and competitive. What’s a potentially overlooked opportunity for lenders to stand out in their origination offerings and increase efficiencies? Kara Shipulski: As mortgage companies look to balance profitability and competitiveness, they are likely finding themselves putting even more effort into to deepening their relationships with customers beyond the mortgage transaction.  One way lenders can expand the relationship is through expanding their product offerings, and some of the most relevant products include other financial products such as auto, home, or small business insurance offered by lenders’ partners. Providing access to products like these allows a mortgage company to make things easier for their customers, which helps build trust, and encourages repeat business and future referrals. Offering these adjacent products also enables additional revenue flow for the mortgage company, which allows them to focus more on enhancing their principal products instead of cutting costs – something everyone benefits from. HW: How can partnering with a nationally recognized insurance company improve borrower engagement for lenders?   Sean Larney: Engaged borrowers make for happier and more profitable customers, but how do lenders ensure high borrower engagement from their customers? Satisfaction. Increasing a borrower satisfaction helps the lender earn trust which in turn keeps the customer engaged.  In a world where a borrower’s choice of lenders is seemingly endless, one way a lender can capture the customer’s attention and keep them engaged is through delivering value added services.  Offering even just one additional product adjacent to a lending product shows a customer you understand the whole home-buying process – you see them as a home buyer on a journey, not just an applicant and that helps solidify your spot as their choice of lender. A lender can rapidly improve brand consideration by partnering with a company with strength in an adjacent area like home insurance. The key here is to deliver these services by leveraging partnerships with large and respected brands in a way that allows you to meet the customer needs without an overly burdensome investment.  What are some key pain points for a lender who may not have a partnership with an insurance company?    KS: In many cases, the thought of partnering on another product to distribute to customers can be overwhelming to organizations. At Liberty, we work to keep things easy for our partners through responsive and personal service from a dedicated Relationship Management team*. This team is specifically aligned to understand the needs of partners in various shelter-related industries and can help a partner navigate the nuances and complexities of the insurance business.  In a broader sense, consumers are becoming more accustomed to and demanding simplicity in all their daily transactions. For companies who want to set themselves apart in a competitive landscape and improve customer satisfaction and loyalty, seamlessly offering home insurance at a relevant shopping moment can help streamline the customer experience and create a one stop shop for all the customer’s home buying and financing needs. Not providing that seamless experience can put lenders at a disadvantage in comparison to their competitors. HW: How do Liberty Mutual Partner Programs work, and what do lenders need to know to get started? SL: We offer a wide array of diverse and innovative partnership models, selling Auto, Home, Pet, Business Lines Insurance and more through partner organizations. Our broad range of partnership models let us custom fit our partners’ needs, whether it’s your first time working with an insurance company, or you have your own P&C license. We have several ways to plug into a lender’s existing processes and we’re actively working on building out our toolbelt to deliver turnkey partnership models that maximize value and ease, while minimizing implementation and operational costs. *Level of program support may vary based on group size To learn more about Liberty Mutual’s programs, visit libertymutual.com/partner-programs, or contact us at voluntarybenefits@libertymutual.com.  The post How insurance offerings can improve the borrower experience appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link