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Sixth recession red flag raised, despite strong jobs report

[ad_1] What a crazy day for my economic model! On the same day, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that we’ve recovered all the jobs lost to COVID-19 and I am raising my sixth recession red flag. When I wrote the America is back recovery model on April 7, 2020, and then retired it on Dec. 9, 2020, I knew one data line would lag the most: jobs! I have talked about how job openings would move toward 10 million and that we should get all the jobs we lost to COVID-19 back by September 2022. Well, I was off by two months: Today, the BLS reported that 528,000 jobs were created with positive revisions of 28,000, which gave us just enough to pass the February 2020 levels. From BLS:  Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 528,000 in July, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and health care. Both total nonfarm employment and the unemployment rate have returned to their February 2020 pre-pandemic levels. Feb 2020: 152,504,000July 2022: 152,536,000 The big job numbers we have seen recently are tied to the decline in the job openings data, which lags also, but we do see a decrease in this data line as it appears for now that the job openings data has peaked in this cycle. It recently went from 11.3 million to 10.7 million, and the recent peak was near 11.9 million. We have seen increases in jobless claims and slighter increases in continuing claims. However, nothing too drastic yet. Again, at this stage of the economic cycle you should focus on the rate of change data. A tighter labor market is a good thing; this means people with less educational backgrounds can get employed since we have many jobs that don’t require a college education. The unemployment rate did tick up for those with less than a high school diploma in this report. Here is a breakdown of the unemployment rate and educational attainment for those 25 years and older: —Less than a high school diploma: 5.9%.—High school graduate and no college: 3.6%—Some college or associate degree: 2.8%—Bachelor’s degree and higher: 2.0% Below is a breakdown of the jobs created. Every sector created jobs; even the government created jobs. All this was just working our way back from the losses to COVID-19, which I knew would take a bit longer than some people would have thought with the economic data we had in 2021. Now that we have regained all the jobs lost to COVID-19, what is next? Hopefully, people know that we weren’t in a recession in the first six months of the year. When you’re in a recession, you don’t create jobs, have positive industrial production data, or positive consumer data in GDP. We had some funky trade and inventory data that tilted the GDP negatively, but the traditional data lines that go negative in a recession are just not there yet. Even so, because some of the more current data is trending negatively,  I am raising my sixth recession red flag today. Allow me to present my case. Recession red flag watch Where are we in the economic cycle? I’ve already raised five of my six recession red flags, but until they are all up, I don’t use the word recession. Let’s review those red flags in order, as my model is based on an economic progression model: 1. The unemployment rate falls down to a level where we start to talk about Federal Reserve rate hikes because the economy doesn’t need as much stimulus for employment gains.  For this recovery, the unemployment rate getting to 4% is the level where I raised my first recession red flag. This just means that the recovery is more mature than the earlier stages of the unemployment rate falling. Today it’s currently at 3.5%. 2. The Federal Reserve starts to raise rates. The Federal Reserve started Its rate hike process this year, to start fighting inflation and has been more aggressive recently. This shows that the expansion is longer and that the Federal Reserve is in a mood to tighten policy rather than make it more accommodative. 3. The inverted yield curve. This is more of a market-driven bond yield red flag. I had been on an inverted yield curve watch since Thanksgiving of 2021. This is when the two-year yield and 10-year yield slap high fives and say hi to each other. It’s another progression red flag, reflecting that we are in a more mature stage of the economy. Traditionally you see an inverted yield curve before every recession. 4. Find the overheating economic sector where demand can’t be sustained. Once that demand comes back to normal, people will be laid off. We see this in the durable goods data. A few companies are laying people off or putting into place a hiring freeze. 5.  New home sales, housing starts, and permits fall into a recession. Once mortgage rates rise, the new home sales sector does get hit harder than the existing home sales market. The homebuilder confidence index is falling noticeably, and while we never had the housing build-up in credit and sales that we saw in 2005, the builders will slow housing production down with higher rates. I raised my fifth recession red flag in June. Today, I am raising the last recession red flag, which considers the Leading Economic Index (LEI). This week I presented my six recession red flag model to the Committee For Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) — the committee that created the leading economic index. “Since its inception in 1942, CED has addressed national priorities to promote sustained economic growth and development to benefit all Americans. CED’s work in those first few years led to great policy accomplishments. One is the Marshall Plan, the economic development program that helped rebuild Europe and

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Why is now the time for lenders to modernize their appraisal processes

[ad_1] With tech solutions and automation dominating more and more of the mortgage experience, the appraisal process can feel a bit dated, often causing significant slowdowns. HousingWire recently spoke with Erin Reed, vice president of originations, valuations and operations at ServiceLink about approaching appraisal modernization in an innovative way while addressing logistical challenges along the way.  HousingWire: Why should lenders consider appraisal modernization and how can it benefit borrowers? Erin Reed: Lenders are looking for a solution that improves the overall cycle time while maintaining the quality of a traditional appraisal report. It becomes even more important in a highly competitive lending environment, as everyone is trying to give borrowers the fastest and best experience while maintaining process integrity. Borrowers have lots of options and high expectations for service in today’s market — leveraging these new options is one way for lenders to set themselves apart. Providing appraisers with more product options designed to increase efficiency helps to create more capacity, which will become essential when volumes increase again. Tasks like scheduling, property inspection and driving comps adds a great deal of time to the process.  Appraisal modernization assists with those tasks to create additional market capacity.  Appraisal modernization will help to absorb fluctuations and volume within the market and maintain a set of standards beyond what we’ve been able to do historically. In today’s market, borrowers increasingly expect a digital experience built for efficiency, transparency and accessibility. HW: What are some of the biggest challenges to implementing modern appraisal solutions? Logistics and adoption are two main hurdles commonly discussed amongst industry participants. First, we need to ensure that property inspections are completed quickly and thoroughly and that the data is presented to the appraiser in an efficient manner.  More importantly, appraiser adoption is critical to ensure the appraisers are comfortable with these new processes. Transparency regarding the data sources will be key to making sure that the product is accepted in the market – not just by the lenders and the consumers, but also by the appraiser community itself.  At ServiceLink, we partner closely with our appraiser panel to ensure they’re comfortable adapting to industry changes. HW: How can appraisal modernization enhance the valuation process? ER: Appraisal modernization will allow more appraisers to focus on what they do best: providing valuations. The need to schedule property visits and perform onsite inspections will now be supported by an alternative workforce. This optimization is expected to make appraisers even more efficient by eliminating the time associated with administrative tasks like scheduling and performing the onsite inspection itself.  In addition, the data collection process has been standardized, so the same set of details are collected for each property. These consistent results will help all constituents across the lending spectrum with a number of functions. These factors should decrease overall turn time while maintaining the integrity of the appraisal process. HW: What is ServiceLink doing to modernize the appraisal process for lenders? ER: ServiceLink has offered hybrid appraisals for almost 15 years. This affords us the opportunity to leverage our existing infrastructure to continue this evolution through modernization.  In addition, ServiceLink’s industry-leading platforms, technology and workflows have been leveraged to manage the modernization workflow seamlessly. ServiceLink has not just been looking forward to modernization; we’ve been involved in its evolution.  We’re looking forward to pushing appraisal modernization beyond the requirements set forth by GSEs and continue to focus on digitizing previously manual touchpoints of the process. To learn more about what ServiceLink is doing to modernize the appraisal process for lenders, visit svclnk.com. The post Why is now the time for lenders to modernize their appraisal processes appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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How to Get Rich Off Stocks – 10 Steps to Begin Now

[ad_1] It often seems as if everyone is looking for the secret sauce to get rich off stocks, and many other investments as well. In truth, there really are no secrets. There’s nothing magic about investing in stocks, and no guarantees you’ll ever get rich. But there are strategies you can use with the potential to greatly increase your wealth in the coming years. #ap18382-ww{padding-top:20px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:12px;font-family:Archivo, sans-serif}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-indicator{text-align:right;color:#4a4a4a}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-indicator-wrapper{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin-bottom:8px}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap18382-ww-text{display:block}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap18382-ww-label{display:none}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-text{margin:auto 3px auto auto}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-label{margin-left:4px;margin-right:3px}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-icon{margin:auto;display:inline-block;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px;cursor:pointer}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-icon img{vertical-align:middle;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-text-bottom{margin:5px}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-text{display:none}#ap18382-ww #ap18382-ww-icon img{text-indent:-9999px;color:transparent} Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.Ad #ap18382-w-map{max-width:600px;padding:20px 0 10px;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;font-family:”Lato”, Arial, Roboto, sans-serif}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-title{color:#212529;font-size:18px;font-weight:700;line-height:27px}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-subtitle{color:#9b9b9b;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;line-height:24px}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-disclosure{margin-top:10px;font-size:12px;color:#9b9b9b}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map{max-width:98%;width:100%;height:0;padding-bottom:65%;margin-bottom:20px;position:relative}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg{position:absolute;left:0;top:0}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg path{fill:#e3efff;stroke:#9b9b9b;pointer-events:all;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in, stroke 0.6s ease-in, stroke-width 0.6s ease-in}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg path:hover{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9;cursor:pointer}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g rect{fill:#e3efff;stroke:#9b9b9b;pointer-events:all;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in, stroke 0.6s ease-in, stroke-width 0.6s ease-in}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g text{fill:#000;text-anchor:middle;font:10px Arial;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state{display:none}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state rect{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state text{fill:#fff;font:19px Arial;font-weight:bold}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g:hover{cursor:pointer}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g:hover rect{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g:hover text{fill:#fff}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-map svg g:hover .ap00646-w-map-state{display:initial}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-btn{padding:9px 41px;display:inline-block;color:#fff;font-size:16px;line-height:1.25;text-decoration:none;background-color:#1261c9;border-radius:2px}#ap18382-w-map #ap18382-w-map-btn:hover{color:#fff;background-color:#508fc9} Invest as little or as much as you want with a Robinhood portfolio. With Robinhood, you can build a balanced portfolio and trade stocks, ETFs and options as frequently as you want, commission-free. Click your state to start investing today! HawaiiAlaskaFloridaSouth CarolinaGeorgiaAlabamaNorth CarolinaTennesseeRIRhode IslandCTConnecticutMAMassachusettsMaineNHNew HampshireVTVermontNew YorkNJNew JerseyDEDelawareMDMarylandWest VirginiaOhioMichiganArizonaNevadaUtahColoradoNew MexicoSouth DakotaIowaIndianaIllinoisMinnesotaWisconsinMissouriLouisianaVirginiaDCWashington DCIdahoCaliforniaNorth DakotaWashingtonOregonMontanaWyomingNebraskaKansasOklahomaPennsylvaniaKentuckyMississippiArkansasTexas Start Investing Today Is it Possible to Get Rich Off Stocks? In theory, yes. In reality, well – let’s just say that will take a lot of work and dedication. If it were otherwise, and especially if it were easy, everyone would be rich. Since we know that’s not true, there must be something else involved. Closer to the truth is that it is possible to get rich off stocks, but you’ll need an incredible amount of discipline and commitment to make it happen. What you may be surprised to learn is that it’s easier to get started than you might have guessed. Online investing has made the process both easier and more accessible to a larger number of people. But don’t be fooled by the simplicity of the many investment platforms that are now out there. You’re still going to need to employ a lot of time-honored strategies, like living beneath your means, saving money on a regular basis, deciding on the right investment strategy, and committing to it for decades – not just a few years. That’s why we put together this list of 10 steps on how to get rich off stocks. #ap42304-ww{padding-top:20px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:12px;font-family:Archivo, sans-serif}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-indicator{text-align:right;color:#4a4a4a}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-indicator-wrapper{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin-bottom:8px}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap42304-ww-text{display:block}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap42304-ww-label{display:none}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-text{margin:auto 3px auto auto}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-label{margin-left:4px;margin-right:3px}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-icon{margin:auto;display:inline-block;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px;cursor:pointer}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-icon img{vertical-align:middle;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-text-bottom{margin:5px}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-text{display:none}#ap42304-ww #ap42304-ww-icon img{text-indent:-9999px;color:transparent} Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.Ad #ap42304-w-text{padding:20px 0 10px;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;font-family:”Lato”, Arial, Roboto, sans-serif}#ap42304-w-text #ap42304-w-text-title{color:#212529;font-size:20px;font-weight:700;line-height:30px}#ap42304-w-text #ap42304-w-text-subtitle{color:#9b9b9b;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;line-height:24px}#ap42304-w-text #ap42304-w-disclosure{color:#9b9b9b;margin-top:10px;font-size:12px}#ap42304-w-text #ap42304-w-text-btn{margin-top:25px;padding:9px 13px;display:inline-block;color:#fff;font-size:16px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:none;background-color:#1261c9;border-radius:2px}#ap42304-w-text #ap42304-w-text-btn:hover{color:#fff;background-color:#508fc9} Want to grow as an investor, no matter your level? Public.com is the investing platform that helps people become better investors. Build your portfolio alongside over a million other community members. Download Now Offer valid for U.S. residents 18+ and subject to account approval. There may be other fees associated with trading. See Public.com/disclosures. Getting Started on Your Journey to Stock Market Riches Below are 10 steps to get you started on your journey to stock market riches. And even if you never get rich, it’s highly likely you’ll be in a much better financial position in a few years than you are right now. 1. Commit to the Journey – Become a Long-term Investor Like most other moneymaking strategies, stocks are more of a get rich slowly process than get-rich-quick. If you invest $10,000 today at 10%, you’ll have $11,000 in one year. But if you invest $10,000 per year at 10% for the next 20 years, you’ll have $603,000. Most people would agree that $603,000 is a lot closer to rich than $11,000. That means you should plan to begin contributions to your investment program now, with the expectation that it will essentially become a lifestyle. That means investing over decades, not months or years. The long-term commitment will also require you to adopt the right attitude. As all seasoned investors know, the stock market goes up, and the stock market goes down. Not only will you need to expect both outcomes, but you’ll also need to keep your emotions at bay. For example, when the stock market is going strong, you may be tempted to invest 100% of your money in stocks, even in the most speculative kind, in an attempt to maximize your returns. That may sound good, and even work well during a raging bull market. But those don’t last forever. For that reason, you’ll need to maintain adequate diversification in your portfolio (which we’ll cover in Step #5 below). At the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ll need to keep calm when the market isn’t cooperating. And rest assured, there are plenty of times when it won’t! If your emotions are in control, you may sell your stocks to prevent losses. While the strategy might accomplish your goal in the short term, it could prove to be a disaster in the long term. Most investment advisors recommend holding your investment positions through market downturns. That will avoid any attempt to time the market, which is virtually impossible anyway. #ap48941-ww{padding-top:20px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:12px;font-family:Archivo, sans-serif}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-indicator{text-align:right;color:#4a4a4a}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-indicator-wrapper{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin-bottom:8px}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap48941-ww-text{display:block}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap48941-ww-label{display:none}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-text{margin:auto 3px auto auto}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-label{margin-left:4px;margin-right:3px}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-icon{margin:auto;display:inline-block;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px;cursor:pointer}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-icon img{vertical-align:middle;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-text-bottom{margin:5px}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-text{display:none}#ap48941-ww #ap48941-ww-icon img{text-indent:-9999px;color:transparent} Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.Ad #ap48941-w-text{padding:20px 0 10px;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;font-family:”Lato”, Arial, Roboto, sans-serif}#ap48941-w-text #ap48941-w-text-title{color:#212529;font-size:20px;font-weight:700;line-height:30px}#ap48941-w-text #ap48941-w-text-subtitle{color:#9b9b9b;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;line-height:24px}#ap48941-w-text #ap48941-w-disclosure{color:#9b9b9b;margin-top:10px;font-size:12px}#ap48941-w-text #ap48941-w-text-btn{margin-top:25px;padding:9px 13px;display:inline-block;color:#fff;font-size:16px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:none;background-color:#1261c9;border-radius:2px}#ap48941-w-text #ap48941-w-text-btn:hover{color:#fff;background-color:#508fc9} Time in the market beats timing the market The brokerage you choose matters. Try Public.com, the investing platform helping people become better investors. See what makes us different. Get Started 2. Set a Contribution Schedule and Stick With it This is one of the hardest steps for most new investors. The cost of living is high and rising each year. Finding extra money in your budget to invest can seem like an impossible

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*HOT* Fruit of the Loom: Buy One, Get One Free Sitewide + Free Shipping, Today Only! (Save on Back to School Basics!!)

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Act now to get your room for HW Annual Oct. 3-5 in Scottsdale

[ad_1] With just under two months until HW Annual, it is important to make your hotel reservations now to join us in person for this power-packed event. HW Annual will take place from Oct. 3-5 at the Fairmont Princess Resort in Scottsdale, Arizona. Attendees who register soon can still find a spot in the HW Annual block of rooms, which includes a special $395 per night room rate.  Relaxation and outdoor adventure meet at this beautiful resort. We are thrilled to have it as the home of HW Annual 2022 since it provides a beautiful backdrop for all of the cutting-edge information to be gained at HW Annual. It is also the longest-running AAA Five Diamond resort in Arizona.  The property includes six pools, a spa, five restaurants and bars and two golf courses. Explore all of these amenities in between your favorite panels and keynote speakers! The city of Scottsdale also has lots to offer, and attendees should make time to explore the vibrant arts and social scene around town.  For more information on the panels to watch for, the keynotes we have lined up and the extra events we have happening during HW Annual, check out these links. Why you should attend HW Annual Oct. 3-5 in Scottsdale Join us at the Marketing Leaders Success Summit at HousingWire Annual on Oct. 3 Don’t miss the Women of Influence Forum at HW Annual Oct. 3 Don’t miss the Vanguard Forum at HW Annual Oct. 4 HW Annual will be held in Scottsdale, Arizona this year and feature housing leaders from all corners of the industry including real estate, mortgage and closings. Hear from today’s top leaders and experts and enjoy networking events with like-minded professionals. Join us at HW Annual for the content, connections and insights you need to win in this environment. Register here The post Act now to get your room for HW Annual Oct. 3-5 in Scottsdale appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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Making sense of the markets this week: August 7

[ad_1] This week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. Does this earnings season matter much? Or at all?  The stock markets are silly. This earnings season is likely the most meaningless as well. The only thing that matters is inflation—and the fight against inflation. And, yet, the stock and bond markets keep guessing and guessing again.  Don’t get me wrong; I’m interested in the earnings reports. It’s where we get to see how our companies are performing. It’s like reading the economic tea leaves as companies provide details on their customers and the trends within their sector. But do the earnings reports matter much (or at all) in mid 2022?  Earnings are backward looking. The reports are old news before it’s even considered news. And yet, the markets react to the earnings. Some days they cheer. Some days they get a serious case of indigestion.  The markets are supposed to be forward thinking. And the earnings reports tell us very little about the future. What economic environment is going to stick around for the next year or three? Source: Alpha Gen Capital / Seeking Alpha  How hard does the Federal Reserve (and other central bankers around the world) have to whack the consumer to kill demand and inflation? That will determine the economic environment that we get. In turn, the economic quadrant will dictate the performance of sectors, and the future of company earnings. It’s the future that matters—to state the obvious. We are in a period of economic transition.  Since mid-June, the U.S. markets are recovering, often buoyed by solid earnings reports, and the hypothesis that the Fed will soften up on its rate hikes.  Source: Google  This “Making sense of the markets” column will offer a quick primer on “Fed speak” and the dovish (or hawkish) tone we’re seeing right now.  The central bankers can rattle the markets with comments like: “[The Fed is] nowhere near almost done. We have made a good start and I feel really pleased with where we’ve gotten to at this point, [but] people are still struggling with the higher prices.”  —San Francisco’s Mary Daly The physics of the soft landing  Central banks are attempting to make an economic soft landing. And here are the acrobatics required.  Economic growth is already in decline. There are many signs that inflation is about to recede. Central banks have to apply the right amount of pressure (via rate increases) to the gravity of the economic and inflationary decline, already in motion.  Think of inflation as a ball attached to a long elastic band in the sky, and it’s falling. The goal is to apply just enough pressure to increase that rate of descent, with the objective being that the ball stops just short of crashing into the ground. And then the ball has to bounce around and settle within a desired range. The central bankers’ flight plan is to keep inflation at a 2% to 3% level. This is where physics and economics collide. It is an almost impossible task for central bankers. That’s why an economic soft landing is about as rare as a Stanley Cup parade in Toronto.  Buy hey, anything is possible.  That said, let’s have a look at some earnings Earnings show how certain sectors and stocks are performing during the current, ongoing inflation and stagflation environment. We can also learn from the companies’ commentary and guidance.  Last week, Kyle wrote up a very informative roundup of earnings on both sides of the border.  Out of the gate, let’s look at oil and gas producers.  Energy is known to be the inflation hedge with respect to types of stocks. The energy stocks are sticking to the script. (Numbers in this section are listed in Canadian currency.) Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ/TSX) is often touted as one of the best-run companies in Canada. It is a rock in a very volatile sector. Earnings for the quarter almost tripled from a year ago, to $3.00 per share. Its free cash-flow almost doubled to CAD$5.896 billion. The free cash-flow enables the dividend increases. In March, CNQ raised its quarterly dividend by 28%. In the earnings report it announced a special dividend of $1.50 per share. As I have long suggested, oil and gas companies are free cash-flow gushers.  Tourmaline (TOU/TSX), which I also own, announced a special dividend of $2.00 per share after reporting record free cash-flow levels.  Suncor (SU/TSX) generated record adjusted funds from operations, approximately $5.3 billion—that’s more than a double from a year ago. Operating earnings increased to $3.814 billion ($2.71 per common share) in 2022’s second quarter, compared to $722 million ($0.48 per common share) in the 2021’s Q2. The company’s net earnings increased to $3.996 billion ($2.84 per common share) in the second quarter of 2022, compared to $868 million ($0.58 per common share) in the same quarter in 2021. Of course the energy sector is cyclical and the stock prices will get hit hard with any economic weakness, or if we enter a recession. Just as with investing in bitcoin, be prepared for wild volatility.  In writing this column, I have always been enthusiastic about the U.S. defensive stock CVS Health (CVS/NYSE). And I wrote about it in this column about the recession-ready portfolio. Here’s an excerpt from that.  (Numbers below for U.S. stocks are listed in U.S. currency)  “I’ve been more than happy to add to my healthcare stocks with the likes of CVS Health (CVS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Abbott Labs (ABT) and Medtronic (MDT). Retailer Walmart (WMT) is known as a recession-friendly or recession-proof stock. In recessions, consumers flock to low-cost retailers. Walmart is the king of low cost. I’m happy to stock up on Walmart.” Pharmacy retailer CVS Health shares recently reached a three-month high, recording the biggest intraday gain since April 2020. The company raised earnings guidance for 2022 as its business segments exceeded expectations, leading to a solid overall revenue beat for the quarter.  Here’s

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