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[ad_1] Tuesday’s new home sales report missed expectations and had negative revisions, which isn’t surprising given this sector of our economy simply can’t handle higher mortgage rates. The housing market is in a recession, something that the homebuilders and the National Association of Realtors now agree with me on, as this recent CNBC clip shows. This means that the builders are done building new single-family homes until they make sure they can get rid of their 10.9 months of supply in an orderly manner. That could happen if lower rates spur more demand, but today the 10-year yield is still at 3%. So for now, the builders will take their time with the homes under construction and make sure they offer enough incentives to unload the new home supply they’re dealing with. From Census: Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.   This is 12.6 percent (±16.9 percent)* below the revised June rate of 585,000 and 29.6 percent (±10.9 percent) below the July 2021 estimate of 726,000. Over the years, I have tried to emphasize that the housing market in the U.S. can’t have a credit sales boom like we saw from 2002-2005. This means we won’t be working from record-breaking demand of high sales like we did at the peak of 2005. After all, sales levels are already low historically for new homes. Tuesday’s new home sales report shows only 511,000 new homes sold. This is below the recession levels of 2000 and back to 1996 levels. The builders are in a better position to manage their inventory glut than when they were working from a credit boom in 2005 that took new home sales up to 1.4 million, with a significant overproduction of single-family homes in relationship to the natural demand curve of new home sales. After the peak in 2005, new home sales fell by 82% from peak to bottom and then had the weakest housing recovery in the next expansion. We had missed sales estimates in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Also, we had a supply spike in 2018, which caused builders to pause construction — and that was with rates only getting toward 5%. Today, rates near 6% are simply too high for the product they sell to the public. From Census: The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of July was 464,000.  This represents a supply of 10.9 months at the current sales rate. You read that right: 10.9 months! We are almost back to the monthly supply level at the peak of the housing bubble crash! Does this mean massive supply will be coming to the market any second now? Nope, it’s a different story this time around. First, we haven’t had the same housing supply production as the run-up in the housing bubble years, primarily driven by single-family housing. This time, we have less production of homes and more multifamily construction. Also, because housing completion data has been so bad in the past few years, it’s taking forever to finish these homes. This means we have a lot of homes under construction or that have not even started. The numbers are historic. 1.06 months of supply are finished products 7.33 months of supply are under construction 2.51 months of supply hasn’t even been started yet My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month average of supply: When supply is 4.3 months and below, this is an excellent market for the builders. When supply is 4.4 to 6.4 months, this is just an OK market for the builders. They will build as long as new home sales are growing. The builders will pull back on construction when the supply is 6.5 months and above.  The housing construction cycle is over, but the builders will finish their homes under contract and hope rates will fall soon to lock up buyers. Then they will deal with building more single-family homes, and if rates stay high, it will be interesting to see what occurs. If rates fall back toward 4%, the housing landscape will change. From Census: The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2022 was $439,400.  The average sales price was $546,800. With housing post-2020, home sellers and homebuilders had a lot of pricing power and pushed it on the consumer because they could. This was much different from the previous expansion. Now the trick for the builders is figuring out how much they need to discount to get buyers to buy the homes under construction. It’s more complicated with mortgage rates near 6% than with mortgage rates near 4%. However, this is on them — they had pricing power, and just like home sellers in America, they pushed it to make a lot of money in the short run. The aftermath of higher rates is that homebuilder confidence in selling homes to make money has collapsed. When I raised my fifth recession red flag in June tied to housing, it was before the big collapse in the home builder sentiment. As you can see below, this confidence index took a waterfall dive recently, which shouldn’t be too surprising considering how fast rates rose on the builders. All in all, not a shocking report. This year, the housing market entered a recession tied to more traditional recessionary realities. Home sales are falling, production is falling and incomes in the sector are falling. We have seen job losses in the mortgage and real estate sector, but not in the construction labor sector yet, as they need to finish up many homes in construction and those they haven’t started. This is much different than the credit leverage boom and bust of housing in 2005, but it’s still a housing recession. We’re covering this important topic at our HousingWire Annual event Oct. 3-5 where Logan is a featured speaker. Register here to join us in Scottsdale,

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[ad_1] Desktop appraisals became a permanent option for certain loans earlier this year. HousingWire recently spoke with Kenon Chen, Executive Vice President of Corporate Strategy at Clear Capital, about desktop appraisal adoption and appraisal modernization. HousingWire: Desktop appraisals became a permanent option for certain loans in March 2022. How willing are appraisers to adopt desktop and hybrid appraisals? Kenon Chen: We have discovered an incredible amount of willingness from appraisers to adopt desktop appraisals, even before the market slowdown. The COVID-driven appraisal flexibilities accelerated the introduction of completing appraisals from home, so already some mindsets were starting to change. We have been very active in hybrid appraisal pilots and we have seen the benefit of providing accurate, digital data about the property to the appraiser, which has been crucial to adoption. I applaud the GSEs for requiring a minimum standard of available data and digital floor plans to ensure the desktop appraisal process is more robust. With over 235,000 hybrid and desktop appraisals under our belt and over 5,200 appraisers ready and willing to accept desktop appraisal assignments, we feel confident that the industry is ready for the change. HW: What are the concerns about new products impacting deals in a low-volume environment? KC: Every deal is crucial in today’s purchase-driven environment and current market conditions. Any change to the standard process becomes a concern, especially the risk of the unknown. The good news is that desktop and hybrid appraisals are not only battle-tested in various market conditions over the past few years, but we have enough data to demonstrate that the results are overwhelmingly positive. The quality and accuracy of modern appraisals have proved to be on par with, or better than, the traditional process, all while reducing turn time by 5 days on average. Beyond just speed, we have seen much more certainty in the process for the borrower with a 75% reduction in appraisal times that impact closing dates and a 50% reduction in customer-related escalations. Like every new process, education, training, and technology are key to success. So at this point, staying status quo is riskier than being prepared to provide a competitive appraisal experience and taking advantage of the FHFA and GSE-led innovation. HW: How does appraisal modernization reduce appraisal costs and fees? KC: As I previously mentioned, appraisal modernization is driving more certainty. This certainty shows up in reducing the cost and fees as well. We simply don’t have as many fee increases on desktop and hybrid appraisals as the traditional process. So the all-in cost to the borrower is less, and if the lender is subsidizing the fee increases, there is also an enormous benefit. Faster turn time also drives down costs. Every day an appraisal order is outstanding affects operational cost and management cost. As we are seeing consistent modern appraisal product turn times under 5 days (even under 2 days for some desktop appraisals), there is an enormous opportunity to continue to improve the cost structure moving forward. Better data through digitization, more efficient process, and improved quality will drive down cost as we move forward. HW: Freddie Mac’s ACE+ PDR (automated collateral evaluation plus property data report) solution laid out in their March bulletin is effective as of July 17, 2022. What does the ACE+ PDR bulletin mean for appraisal modernization? KC: The most exciting aspect of Freddie Mac’s ACE+ PDR solution is that it represents the next generation of appraisal waivers. The lender has greater certainty since a full appraisal is not required, but also technology-enabled property data is being collected to provide transparency for the condition and characteristics of the property for all stakeholders. The time and cost savings are significant compared to a traditional appraisal process, which means less burden on the borrower. And the pattern of automated models plus standardized on-demand property data takes us further along the path of modernization. We have developed a unique set of tools to support this program, including our ClearInsight mobile data collection app powered by CubiCasa’s automated floor plan and digital GLA capability. The CubiCasa app is wielded by our nationwide network of over 4,000 background-checked, certified data collectors who enjoy providing convenient scheduling options to our customers like evenings and weekends. I think solutions like ACE+ PDR force us to rethink the appraisal process and prioritize the borrower’s experience while minimizing collateral risk and potential bias. To learn more about how Clear Capital is working to further the future of real estate valuation, analytics, and platform technology solutions, visit clearcapital.com. The post How is the industry adapting to desktop appraisals? appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] All schools to remain closed till Thursday as Sindh braces for new spell of monsoon rains this week  DAWN.com Sindh educational institutes to remain closed on August 24, 25  The News International Fresh monsoon system to bring more rain in Sindh  ARY NEWS School, colleges across Sindh to remain closed till Thursday  Geo News Weather update: Karachi to receive light rain as wet spell draws out  Geo News View Full coverage on Google News [ad_2]

[ad_1] When it comes to choosing the best short-term investments for the next five years, there are three main factors to focus on — liquidity, expectations, and risk. You need to keep your cash liquid so it’s easily accessible when you need it, which means you also need to invest in a way that doesn’t put you at too much risk of losing capital. You will likely achieve a lower return than the best long-term investments offer as a result, yet that’s the price you pay for keeping your investment “safe.” But, what are the best short-term investments out there? In this article, we’ll break down the absolute best investment options for people with the following timelines: Best investments for up to three years Best investments for up to five years If you have some cash to invest for up to five years and you’re wondering where to stash it, read on to learn about our top picks and how they stack up in terms of risk vs. reward. #ap58364-ww{padding-top:20px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:12px;font-family:Archivo, sans-serif}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-indicator{text-align:right;color:#4a4a4a}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-indicator-wrapper{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin-bottom:8px}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap58364-ww-text{display:block}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap58364-ww-label{display:none}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-text{margin:auto 3px auto auto}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-label{margin-left:4px;margin-right:3px}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-icon{margin:auto;display:inline-block;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px;cursor:pointer}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-icon img{vertical-align:middle;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-text-bottom{margin:5px}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-text{display:none}#ap58364-ww #ap58364-ww-icon img{text-indent:-9999px;color:transparent} Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.Ad #ap58364-w-map{max-width:600px;padding:20px 0 10px;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;font-family:”Lato”, Arial, Roboto, sans-serif}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-title{color:#212529;font-size:18px;font-weight:700;line-height:27px}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-subtitle{color:#9b9b9b;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;line-height:24px}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-disclosure{margin-top:10px;font-size:12px;color:#9b9b9b}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map{max-width:98%;width:100%;height:0;padding-bottom:65%;margin-bottom:20px;position:relative}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg{position:absolute;left:0;top:0}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg path{fill:#e3efff;stroke:#9b9b9b;pointer-events:all;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in, stroke 0.6s ease-in, stroke-width 0.6s ease-in}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg path:hover{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9;cursor:pointer}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g rect{fill:#e3efff;stroke:#9b9b9b;pointer-events:all;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in, stroke 0.6s ease-in, stroke-width 0.6s ease-in}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g text{fill:#000;text-anchor:middle;font:10px Arial;transition:fill 0.6s ease-in}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state{display:none}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state rect{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g .ap00646-w-map-state text{fill:#fff;font:19px Arial;font-weight:bold}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g:hover{cursor:pointer}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g:hover rect{stroke:#1261C9;stroke-width:2px;stroke-linejoin:round;fill:#1261C9}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g:hover text{fill:#fff}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-map svg g:hover .ap00646-w-map-state{display:initial}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-btn{padding:9px 41px;display:inline-block;color:#fff;font-size:16px;line-height:1.25;text-decoration:none;background-color:#1261c9;border-radius:2px}#ap58364-w-map #ap58364-w-map-btn:hover{color:#fff;background-color:#508fc9} With a High-Yield Savings Account, you can save money while earning it. For smart and effective savings, a High-Yield Savings Account is a viable option. Open an account today by clicking on your state below. HawaiiAlaskaFloridaSouth CarolinaGeorgiaAlabamaNorth CarolinaTennesseeRIRhode IslandCTConnecticutMAMassachusettsMaineNHNew HampshireVTVermontNew YorkNJNew JerseyDEDelawareMDMarylandWest VirginiaOhioMichiganArizonaNevadaUtahColoradoNew MexicoSouth DakotaIowaIndianaIllinoisMinnesotaWisconsinMissouriLouisianaVirginiaDCWashington DCIdahoCaliforniaNorth DakotaWashingtonOregonMontanaWyomingNebraskaKansasOklahomaPennsylvaniaKentuckyMississippiArkansasTexas Get Started Best Short-Term Investments Comparison Table Investment Options Investment Timeline Risk vs. Reward High-Yield Savings Accounts Money Market Accounts Less than 3 years Low risk, low rewardPotential return of 1% to 1.5% APY or more, depending on the account opened Crypto Savings Accounts Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Short-Term Notes Less than 3 years Medium risk, medium rewardCrypto savings accounts are returning up to 8.05% APY, although additional risk is involvedREITs can earn exceptional returns, but the risk is higher and liquidity may be lower than other investmentsShort-term notes offer yields of 4.6% or higher, although returns can fluctuate Roth IRA Short-Term Bond Funds Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) Short-Term Corporate and Municipal Bond Funds Series I Bonds Up to 5 years Returns for Roth IRA accounts, short-term bond funds, short-term corporate and municipal bond funds, and ETFs vary widely, and you have the chance to lose capital over a shorter timelineSeries I Savings Bonds are currently returning 9.62%, although liquidity can be a problem if you need your money quickly Bonus Idea: Real Estate Hard Money Loans Up to 5 years Real estate hard money loans promise high yields but come with a relatively high amount of risk Best Investments for Timelines of Less Than 3 Years When you know you’ll need access to your money in the next three years, you have to choose from low-risk investments that keep your cash liquid and easy to access. The best short-term investments for up to three years can help you do exactly that, although some offer more liquidity than others. High-Yield Savings Accounts Potential interest rate: 1.25% or more, depending on the account High-yield savings accounts offer a risk-free way to invest your money for the short-term, albeit with a much lower guaranteed return than you can get elsewhere. The best high-yield savings accounts come with yields of well over 1% APY, and many charge minimal account fees or no fees at all. Even more importantly, the best high-yield savings accounts come with FDIC insurance, so your investment of up to $250,000 per account is fully protected if your bank defaults or closes its doors. If you’re looking for the best high-yield savings account to open online, we suggest checking out offers from CIT Bank and, Discover, and UFB Direct. Stability: High Liquidity: High Transactional Costs: Low #ap51323-ww{padding-top:20px;position:relative;text-align:center;font-size:12px;font-family:Archivo, sans-serif}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-indicator{text-align:right;color:#4a4a4a}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-indicator-wrapper{display:inline-flex;align-items:center;justify-content:flex-end;margin-bottom:8px}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap51323-ww-text{display:block}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-indicator-wrapper:hover #ap51323-ww-label{display:none}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-text{margin:auto 3px auto auto}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-label{margin-left:4px;margin-right:3px}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-icon{margin:auto;display:inline-block;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px;cursor:pointer}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-icon img{vertical-align:middle;width:16px;height:16px;min-width:16px;min-height:16px}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-text-bottom{margin:5px}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-text{display:none}#ap51323-ww #ap51323-ww-icon img{text-indent:-9999px;color:transparent} Ads by Money. We may be compensated if you click this ad.Ad #ap51323-w-text{padding:20px 0 10px;margin:0 auto;text-align:center;font-family:”Lato”, Arial, Roboto, sans-serif}#ap51323-w-text #ap51323-w-text-title{color:#212529;font-size:20px;font-weight:700;line-height:30px}#ap51323-w-text #ap51323-w-text-subtitle{color:#9b9b9b;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;line-height:24px}#ap51323-w-text #ap51323-w-disclosure{color:#9b9b9b;margin-top:10px;font-size:12px}#ap51323-w-text #ap51323-w-text-btn{margin-top:25px;padding:9px 13px;display:inline-block;color:#fff;font-size:16px;line-height:20px;text-decoration:none;background-color:#1261c9;border-radius:2px}#ap51323-w-text #ap51323-w-text-btn:hover{color:#fff;background-color:#508fc9} It's never too late to start saving! With a high-yield savings account you can make your savings grow faster. Click below to learn more. Open an Account Today Money Market Accounts Potential interest rate: 1.50% or more, depending on the account The best money market accounts pay a little more than the best online savings accounts, and they also provide depositors with ATM cards, checks, and deposit slips. Also note that money market accounts are based on the account balance, not the length of time you invest your money. This makes money market accounts a good option for people who need a place to park their excess cash for the short term with the option to access their funds at any time. Like other deposit accounts, you can also rest assured that your money market funds will be protected with FDIC insurance. If you’re looking for a money market account that offers the highest potential return, you should check out options from banks like UFB Direct and CIT Bank and UFB Direct. Stability: High Liquidity: High Transactional Costs: Low Crypto Savings Accounts Potential interest rate: up to 8.05% APY, depending on the account Crypto savings accounts also make it possible to earn interest on your crypto deposits, but it’s important to note the changing landscape in this industry. For example, the amount of interest earned in these accounts can fluctuate wildly, and some crypto savings accounts are only available to investors

[ad_1] This week, due to the rising prices at Aldi, I decided to skip shopping there and see if I could shop the sales at other stores for the same prices or lower than Aldi. I was happily surprised with the deals I got. Overall, I feel like produce and baking supplies are probably still cheaper at Aldi but I can get better deals on the majority of groceries by shopping the sales at my local stores. Again, most of these stores are all within a mile or two of each other so gratefully I’m not spending a ton of gas money driving to each one. Harris Teeter 4 dozen Eggs – $1.99 per dozen (I was SO excited about this price! We are stocked up for a couple of weeks now.) 3 cartons Harris Teeter Ice Cream – $1.97 each 1 Harris Teeter Tortillas – $0.84 3 pkg Dino Chicken Nuggets – $4.49 each (My kids LOVE these but they are normally $9 so I was excited about this price. These will last us for a few weeks!) 1 Goya Butter – $3.50, used $1/1 e-coupon – $2.50 after coupon 1 bag Brown Rice – $1.89 14 cans Beans – $0.44 each (These will go in the pantry to use over the next few months. This price was better than my Aldi price so I decided to stock up!) 2 Kellogg’s Raisin Bran Cereal – $1.97 each, used $1/2 e-coupon – $1.47 each after coupon 2 huge bags Fresh Greens Beans – Marked down to $0.75 each (I was so happy to find these! I immediately came home and canned them so we will have garden fresh green beans to use over the next few weeks. See picture below.) 1.17 lbs Tomatoes – $1.74 2 Cucumbers – $0.79 each Used $5 off $30 purchase e-coupon Total after coupons: $41.49 Ingles I ran into Ingles to check for markdowns and was so excited to find some great deals! 3 loaves French Bread – Marked down to $1.48 each (We LOVE this bread! Two of these loaves will go in the freezer to use later.) 1 half gallon Half & Half – $4.98 1 gallon Milk – $3.33 2 pkg Steak – Marked down to $3.54 and $4.63 1 pkg Chicken Breasts – Marked down to $3.39 2 pkg Ground Beef – Marked down to $5.55 and $4.26 1 pkg Caesar Salad – Marked down to $1.49 1 huge pkg Organic Greens – Marked down to $1.99 1 pkg Mushrooms – Marked down to $0.99 Total: $38.59 Big Lots If you have a Big Lots near you, I highly suggest signing up for their Rewards Program. I get coupons several times a month and they also always have a markdown shelf with great deals. This week I received a $10 off $20 purchase coupon so I used it to grab a few snack items for school lunches. 1 loaf Bread – $3.29 2 bags Pretzels – Marked down to $0.60 each 1 box Nabisco Snacks – Marked down to $4.75 2 boxes Ritz Crackers – Marked down to $2 each 1 huge jar Peanut Butter – $4.49 1 Welch’s Grape Jelly – $2.79 4 boxes Kraft Mac & Cheese – $1.19 each Used $10 off $20+ purchase coupon Total: $15.28 Local Liquidation Store 4 bags Path of Life Quinoa Blend – $1.39 each 1 bag Frozen Organic Peas – $0.99 1 pkg Food for Life English Muffins – $1.59 Total: $8.14 Total for all groceries: $100.50 Menu Plan for This Week Breakfasts Cereal, English Muffins, Eggs, Fruit, Yogurt, Frozen Waffles Lunches Mac & Cheese/Carrots Sticks/Grapes x 2, Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwiches/Cucumbers/Peaches x 2, Chicken Nuggets/Mandarin Oranges/Grapes, Leftovers x 2 Dinners Grilled Steak, Green Beans, French Bread, Caesar Salad Pancakes, Eggs Bean Burritos, Steamed Quinoa Blend, Cantaloupe (from last week) Chicken & Rice, Tossed Salad Chicken/Zucchini/Mushroom Skillet (using zucchini from our garden) Steamed Peas, Biscuits Pork Butt (I froze this two weeks ago), Mashed Potatoes, Steamed Broccoli Homemade Cheese Pizza, Breadsticks, Tossed Salad [ad_2] Source link