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[ad_1] Canadian home prices are falling. Borrowing costs are increasing at an incredible rate. It’s the battle royale of home ownership affordability: Will wannabe home owners benefit from the real estate market correction, or will their dreams be crushed by the rising mortgage costs that are causing it?  I believe that improved home ownership affordability is on the way, but that the “improvement” will likely be modest. To understand why, it helps to know how we got here and to consider what happens to the affordability equation as home prices go down and borrowing costs go up.  Inflation (not rates) is the biggest concern for central banks Since March 2022, the Bank of Canada (BoC) has been raising interest rates in an effort to tame runaway inflation. In June, inflation in Canada reached a 39-year high of 8.1% year-over-year, after decades of mostly low, stable and predictable inflation. It eased to 7.6% in July, but it remains well above the BoC’s target of 2% annual inflation.  That said, if central bankers can’t wrestle inflation to the ground, they will be forced to continue raising rates until inflation is tamed—regardless of the impact on home owners and buyers.  Source: CBC News Inflation is driving the bus. Or, you could say, inflation holds all of the keys to affordability.  Our last experience with high inflation came in two waves during the 1970s and ’80s, and it peaked at 12.9% in 1981. That year, the BoC’s benchmark rate reached 20.78%. If you think mortgages are expensive right now, consider that, as of Sept. 6, 2022, the benchmark rate is 2.5%.  Home prices are falling fast I’ve said for many months that it would not be hard to pop the Canadian real estate bubble. It was, and is, the most Bubblicious real estate bubble on the planet. Rates were kept too low for far too long.  Recent home buyers have what people in the poker world call “weak hands”—meaning they may soon give up on their recent purchase and decide to sell. Apparently, the weakest hands belong to real estate “investors,” who leveraged existing properties to take on more debt during the recent home-buying craze. When home prices start to correct, it doesn’t take long for over-leveraged home owners and speculators to find themselves under water. That’s when you owe more on your house or condo than it’s actually worth, and it’s a reason some owners might be forced to sell. After a strong COVID-inspired real estate run, prices are now in a free fall. After peaking at $816,720 in February 2022, the national average house price fell 18.5% to $665,850 in June. The average price fell again in July, settling at $629,971—nearly 22.9% below the peak.  Here’s a chart that shows the incredible real estate run-up. Keep in mind that the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) uses its own unique benchmark to calculate national prices.  Source: CREA, Steve Saretsky Borrowing costs are increasing When the BoC’s benchmark policy rate goes up, mortgage interest rate hikes are usually not far behind. For example, Canada’s prime rate—on which variable mortgage rates rest—increased to 4.7% from 3.7% the day after the BoC’s 1% interest rate hike on July 13, 2022. From February to July 2022, variable interest rates (for mortgages with a 10% down payment) moved from 0.9% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, fixed rates moved from 2.59% to 4.34% over the same period, according to data from Ratehub.ca. (Note: MoneySense.ca and Ratehub.ca are both owned by Ratehub Inc.) The following table shows the lowest five-year fixed and variable mortgage rates (assuming a 25-year amortization) available in most provinces at the end of each month between February and July 2022, based on Ratehub.ca data. 5-year fixed rates 5-year variable rates With 10% down With 20% down With 10% down With 20% down February 2.59% 2.79% 0.90% 1.25% March 3.04% 3.29% 1.15% 1.70% April 3.59% 3.69% 1.90% 2.20% May 3.94% 4.04% 1.90% 2.20% June 4.79% 5.04% 2.50% 2.80% July 4.34% 4.59% 3.50% 3.85% As we can see, since February 2022, variable mortgage rates in Canada have risen 2.6 percentage points, which represents an increase of almost 300%! Fixed rates have climbed around 1.8 percentage points, which represents an increase of 65%.  What this means for affordability  As falling home prices take on higher rates in 2022, has home ownership become more affordable? Let’s take a look at the impact these two forces have had on monthly mortgage costs, which are a leading factor for affordability.   The following table represents two scenarios: home owners with a 10% down payment, and those with a 20% down payment. Mortgages with a 20% down payment generally have higher interest rates because they are not eligible for mortgage default insurance. However, a home owner who puts down less than 20% will have to account for the added insurance costs.  Thanks to Gina Athanasious, a RE/MAX real estate expert, for her help with the following calculations.  Month(with average home price) 5-year fixed (10% down) 5-year fixed (20% down) 5-year variable (10% down) 5-year variable (20% down) Rate Payment Rate Payment Rate Payment Rate Payment February($816,720) 2.59% $3,326 2.79% $3,022 0.90% $2,736 1.25% $2,536 June($665,850) 4.79% $3,414 5.04% $3,110 2.50% $2,685 2.80% $2,467 July($629,971) 4.34% $3,100 4.59% $2,827 3.50% $2,838 3.85% $2,619 The scorecard shows that, from February to June, variable-rate costs improved modestly, with falling home prices outweighing higher interest rates. Redo the same calculations for the 2022 period of February to July, however, and we see that variable-rate costs worsened, with higher interest rates now outweighing the drop in home prices.  The opposite is true for fixed-rate mortgage costs. Those costs worsened between February and June but improved modestly between February and July. That said, head-to-head, variable rates seem to remain the more cost-effective option.  Factoring in the mortgage stress test The mortgage stress test, which sets a minimum qualifying rate for new mortgages, requires borrowers to prove they can handle their mortgage payment at the greater of 5.25% or their contract rate plus

[ad_1] Let’s jump right to the real news here: There’s a Netflix documentary that just came out TODAY* called Get Smart With Money Somehow old Mr. Money Mustache and several friends got lured into playing a role in making it. And I’m very happy with the results! And you can watch the results here (which will be a huge help to the movie’s success!): https://www.netflix.com/title/81312877 Now for the real story behind this weird situation. Why did I agree to this? Aren’t I supposed to be retired? Do you get paid a lot to be in a Netflix movie? And does that mean you become “famous” and your life changes? Read on to find these answers and more. The Origin One sunny afternoon in December 2020, I got an email from the co-owner of a filmmaking company with this title: Feature Documentary – personal finance  Inside was a very well written description of her idea for a movie, and a heartfelt invitation for me to be one of the people featured in it. I immediately went through my usual series of reactions: Feeling flattered that someone would actually want me in their production. Then dread at the idea of actually signing myself up for a bunch of “work” when I’m already way too busy doing fun, meaningful stuff as a retired person. Then a motivated excitement to write back immediately to say,  “Thanks so much, I’m honored, but no thanks, and good luck and maybe I could help out by email just as a casual consultant if you need any ideas.” Well, that failed. Because this filmmaker turned out to be Kristin Lazure, who then pulled her co-founder Stephanie Soechtig into the conversation, and together they run Atlas Films, not just another documentary company but one of the best ones in the country.  Atlas has made super-incisive films on food, public health, guns, political cover-ups and so many more things, all of them watchable and action-oriented. As I watched their earlier titles, I realized that Atlas does not exist just to crank out entertainment or profit from cheap controversy. They are willing to do the real work to dig out the real stories, with the goal of creating positive social change. “Shit”, I thought. “How can I say no to this, if my goal with this MMM hobby is really to try to make a difference myself?”  I realized that sure, doing screen and camera work is hard and sometimes inconvenient and it would suck away some of the time I would normally put into writing blog articles. But in exchange it would almost certainly reach a lot more people for each hour I invested into it, and equally important it would reach new people, Netflix watchers who are probably a different group than blog readers.  And, if you set aside my serious-eyebrows-pretend-grownup charade of being all concerned and logical, I also thought it would be a lot of fun to be part of such a big, exciting, new experience. And shit man, how neat to be able to go over to a friend’s house and dare them to put on YOUR OWN NETFLIX MOVIE!?! So I said yes, and the giant ball started rolling really fast, and suddenly we spent the entire 2021 hopping through a series of occasional filming days, and recorded zoom calls, and other silly, interesting experiences. Some of it was indeed hard (like being squeezed onto my deck along with a dozen production crew in the full blazing solar onslaught of a July afternoon, pretending to act natural while answering interview questions, pausing only to wipe away the occasional gallon of sweat from my forehead.) But almost all of it was loads of fun. And it led to wonderful new experiences and friendships for all of us. One thing you’ll notice if you watch the movie, is that I talk a big game about how hard this all was, yet in the movie I just seem to pop in occasionally, do a couple of bike tricks and play with power tools, and oh yeah sometimes drop a few sagely financial one-liners to help my students along the way. This is because our content was edited down by probably a 100:1 ratio. They cover a lot of ground in this movie with a lot of people, and yet somehow it all feels natural and coherent.  My favorite part is probably that my old concept of the “Purchase Justification Machine”, first described in this 2019 article about me not buying a Tesla, made it into the movie in the form of a glorious and silly on-screen animated graphic – grinding away at Kim as she browses Amazon while riding her Peloton. Money and Fame Oh, and no, we didn’t get paid much at all, especially if you work it out on an hourly basis. Documentaries like this have a high production budget when it comes to top-quality crew and equipment, but they somehow manage to get us on-camera participants to willingly almost donate our time.  If you value fame or exposure, that alone could be considered a valuable form of payment. But in my case, any added fame would be a downside – there are very few real-world benefits and quite a few downsides related to privacy, which in extreme situations can even lead to danger. However I figured I’m just one of many people in this movie, and it’s a small fish relative to the overall ocean of Netflix. When I weighed that against the benefits of sharing better financial and lifestyle habits, I took an optimistic guess and decided that the good aspects outweighed the bad. I’ll let you know how this goes now that the movie is out! So What’s The Movie About? Atlas films rounded up four financial gurus, all of us with different backgrounds and styles (Paula Pant, Tiffany Aliche, Ro$$ Mac, and myself.) Then they had us send “casting calls” out to the Internet, summoning our ideal students with the offer

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[ad_1] Marketing is a quickly evolving field, especially in the housing market. “The Future of Marketing” panel, which includes Rick Webster, chief marketing officer at Lender Price, will take a deep dive into industry trends and the marketing advancements that everyone can look forward to.  Below, Webster talks with HousingWire to share his excitement for HW Annual, and some of the topics he expects to learn more about at the Marketing Leaders Success Summit.  HousingWire: Why are you excited to speak at HousingWire Annual 2022? Rick Webster: HousingWire always puts on some of the best shows in the industry. This will be my second time speaking at an HW event, so I’m super excited to share some insights around the future of marketing with some awesome speakers and collaborate with my peers.  HousingWire: What are the biggest benefits to attending in-person conferences and events after two years of remote work and video conferences?  Rick Webster: Although I’m happy we had the technology to connect everyone over the last two years, I truly feel in-person events offer the best experience for attendees. They are much more personal in my opinion, and I think people are simply ready to get back to interacting and communicating face-to-face. The conversations tend to be free-flowing and more natural. I’m a people person at heart, so interacting with folks outside of the laptop is way more energizing and fun for me personally.  HousingWire: You are speaking on the ‘Future of Marketing’ panel, so in a few words, what do you think the future holds for marketing, specifically in the housing industry? Rick Webster: As most marketers know, the marketing landscape continues to evolve. With that said, I think we will see advancements in the following areas:  Data: How data is gathered, segmented and leveraged Audience Building: New platforms and services will come online to help marketers go beyond common channels to get products in front of more people.  Reporting: AI and automation will likely provide marketers with even deeper insights on performance and audience.  Personalization: Marketers should be thinking about how they can provide a personalized and tailored experience for customers interacting with their brand.  Paid Advertising: Younger marketers entering our space will bring knowledge of the latest digital marketing strategies. Look for the housing industry to leverage similar tactics used in ad agencies.  However, with the refinance boom behind us now, and cost becoming more of a factor, I also think it’s important for marketers to continue thinking about strategies that are cost-effective. Strategies that are still impactful and well-balanced across paid, earned and owned channels.  Content is still king in our industry. Building relationships will become even more important than ever in 2023, and getting back to the basics should be looked at in our current environment. HousingWire: What are you most interested in learning more about from the other Marketing Leader Success panels?  Rick Webster: Although I’ve been doing this for a few years now, I always enjoy learning from others and gaining fresh perspectives. Marketers should never stop learning, so I’m excited to learn additional insight from others on a wide array of topics, especially around content generation and overall marketing strategies going into 2023.  HousingWire: Anything else you’d like to add?  Rick Webster: Hoping to see everyone at the conference. It’s the one you don’t want to miss. HousingWire Annual Why you should attend HW Annual Oct. 3-5 in Scottsdale 5 reasons to attend the Marketing Leaders Success Summit at HW Annual Oct. 3 Inside the “The Future of Marketing” panel at the Marketing Leaders Success Summit on Oct. 3 Join us at HW Annual for the content, connections and insights you need to win in this environment. To register, go here. And remember, HW+ members receive 50% off their registration! The post Rick Webster to speak at HW Annual Oct. 3 appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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