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[ad_1] Today the National Association of Realtors reported that existing home sales fell once again to 4.80 million. Even though this was a beat of estimates, the sales decline trend due to higher mortgage rates and home prices continues. The savagely unhealthy housing market theme of mine is running in full force now as we have gotten no relief on home prices and now have a mega jump in mortgage rates.  With the home-price growth we had in 2020 and 2021, my five-year price-growth model that I set for 2020-2024 of 23% was already smashed in just two years. That was a huge red flag, hence all the statements in 2021 about unhealthy housing.  However, the secondary negative impact was going to be more painful. Since the summer of 2020, I have talked about what could change the housing market, which was a 10-year yield above 1.94%, which means rates over 4%. Now that mortgage rates are over 6%, this one-two punch of rising prices and rising rates is the core basis of the savagely unhealthy housing market.  From NAR Research: “Total existing-home sales notched a minor contraction of 0.4% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.80 million in August.” Existing home sales have more legs to go lower, especially now that new listing data is falling. A traditional primary resident seller is also a buyer, which means if they don’t list, they’re not just taking a potential home to be bought off the table — they’re taking a future sale off the books as well.  Total Inventory data fell in this report from 1.31 million to 1.28 million. It doesn’t even look like we will breach the lower level of my inventory wish list of 1.52 to 1.93 million this year: Savage, man, purely savage.  From NAR: “The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $389,500, a 7.7% jump from August 2021 ($361,500), as prices ascended in all regions. This marks 126 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.”  While home prices have been up in every report this year, the price growth is cooling on a year-over-year basis. I am a big fan of inventory to 2019 levels. We have parts of the U.S. that are at 2019 levels, and they are off the savagely unhealthy housing market list. Even though 2019 inventory levels were historically low, they were at four-decade lows before 2020; they’re a more effective pricing market. NAR Research  “The total housing inventory registered at the end of August was 1,280,000 units, a decrease of 1.5% from July and unchanged from the previous year. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace – identical to July and up from 2.6 months in August 2021.” Due to the revisions to last month’s data, monthly supply data didn’t grow. It would have fallen slightly from last’s 3.3 monthly print, which was revised to 3.2 months. I prefer four months of supply nationally to be balanced. However, seasonality will kick in soon, and it doesn’t look that 2022 will get us there. Unlike most people, I believe a balanced market is a four-month story, not the six months people have talked about over the years. We can have effective pricing in a four- to five- month housing supply market, so four months is my goal. NAR Research: “First-time buyers were responsible for 29% of sales in August; Individual investors purchased 16% of homes; All-cash sales accounted for 24% of transactions; Distressed sales represented approximately 1% of sales; Properties typically remained on the market for 16 days.” The days on the market have always been a critical data line for me. Nothing is good when the data line is low. I prefer 30 days plus, meaning it’s a more typical marketplace with choices for people all over the country.  On the good side, the days on the market in August grew to 16 days coming off historic all-time lows of 14 days. Homes priced right are selling in America, and homes that are not waking up to reality are staying on the market longer and longer.  Since total inventory levels are so low, this data line has broken to all-time lows, which alarms me. We simply didn’t have enough housing products for people post 2020. This explains the historical price growth since 2020 and why prices are still up yearly, even in a market with sales falling year over year. NAR Research: “Year-over-year, sales faded by 19.9% (5.99 million in August 2021).” We have entered a period in time where we have high comps for housing demand, and the year-over-year data is going to get worse until 2023 because existing home sales, just like purchase application data, made a run toward the end of the year, sending existing home sales toward 6.49 million in January of 2022.  I have talked about this often with purchase application data, that we should expect some significant year-over-year declines for the rest of the year, of 25% to 35%. Even if the weekly data doesn’t go anywhere, with rates heading higher, you can see drops of 40% + due to the high comps and higher mortgage rates. All in all, the report looks right to me. Some people might be surprised that total inventory fell, but with the new listing data declining since late June of this year, it’s not a shock to me that this is happening. Is this the first stage of a mortgage rate lockdown? We don’t want to see that in America, but that might be a reality in 2023. Home-price growth is falling as it should; we have had a massive housing inflationary event in America with rising home prices and mortgage rates coming off hot 2020 and 2021 prices. With mortgage rates rising, 2022 has seen the most significant housing inflationary event in recent modern history as the total cost to buy a home took a historic run higher, one that is for

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[ad_1] Are you on TikTok yet? Your future borrowers could be – the social media app is expected to reach 1.8 billion users by the end of 2022, with many users falling under the Millennial and Gen Z umbrellas. As more of these younger borrowers begin to show interest in buying a home, it’s a great idea to use TikTok not only as a way to connect with prospective borrowers, but to educate them on mortgage as well.  The following five accounts showcase how lenders and loan officers can use TikTok to brand themselves as well as entertain and educate home buyers.  1. Scott Betley (@thatmortgageguy) 865.5k followers, 11.7 million likes @thatmortgageguy Never expected this ♬ World’s Smallest Violin – AJR Scott Betley is a loan officer for NFM Lending with more than 10 years of experience helping first-time home buyers and move-up buyers. He uses trending audios and humor to, in his own words, “expose all of the secrets about buying a house. Like how you don’t need perfect credit or a down payment to buy and start building equity for your family.”  Betley’s success on TikTok over the last few years has even led to the launch of an Influencer Division at NFM. 2. Mandy Phillips (@mortgagemandy)  60k followers, 1 million likes @mortgagemandy When self-employed Karen thinks she qualifies for more and tries to tell you how to do your job. #itsawriteoff #karen #selfemployed #mortgage #loanofficer #imdone #iamthemanager#greenscreen ♬ Witch Familiar (Classical) [Classic](143628) – dice Mandy Phillips is a branch manager at Vista Home Loans. She uses her TikTok account to clear up misconceptions about mortgages and answer questions via video and comments. One of the ways she does this is through skits where she plays both herself and a borrower. Her “Karen” borrower persona, who is rude and ill-informed, often asks for a manager – Phillips happily informs her, as her bio reads, “I am the manager.” She emphasizes for home buyers that they should choose a loan officer that is well-versed in today’s changing market, and shares tips on what not to do when trying to get a preapproval. 3. Jordan Nutter (@anutterhomeloan) 191.2k followers, 3.2 million likes @anutterhomeloan Replying to @joeemt1999 Replying to @joeemt1999 #anutterhomeloan #realestate #mortgage #firsttimehomebuyer ♬ original sound – Jordan Nutter Mortgage Lender Jordan Nutter’s bio describes her account as “subpar humor with a side of homebuying.” Like other LOs on TikTok, Nutter is funny, but she also takes the time to make longer videos explaining things like jumbo loans, closing costs and how cosigned student loans can affect potential mortgage approval. Many of her TikToks are answers to questions from her comments or reenactments and skits of potential situations.  4. Michael Dufour (@yourmortgageguide) 162.9k followers, 1.2 million likes @yourmortgageguide Be prepared! #yourmortgageguide #genz #homebuyingtips #firsttimehomebuyer #highschool #college ♬ original sound – Your Mortgage Guide Michael Dufour is a mortgage loan originator who’s been posting on TikTok for more than two years. His account is a mix of irreverent humor about home buying as well as being a mortgage originator. Dufour posts a lot about the differences between the boomer home buying experience versus what Millennials and Gen Z are experiencing today, and uses trending audios to capture interest. In a recent post, he even advised other LOs using TikTok on how to appropriately use CTAs and keywords to gain leads.  5. Rebecca Richardson (@the.mortgage.mentor)  133.2k followers, 991.9k likes @the.mortgage.mentor Thought process of reviewing a loan application to get someone approved for a home #homebuyer #howtobuyahome #mortgage #lenderavengers #alwaysbeeducating #learnontiktok ♬ Aesthetic – Tollan Kim Rebecca Richardson is a loan officer with UMortgage who says she “keeps it real in real estate and shares information most lenders don’t.” She updates regularly with advice for homebuyers on mortgage and financial literacy, such as a video on questions you should ask a lender and Realtor before working with them. Her account is focused more on borrower education than humor, but is a great example of how lenders can brand and market themselves on TikTok.  Have these users inspired you to join TikTok? Let us know in the comments below. You can also follow along as HousingWire dips a toe into the TikTok waters! The post 5 TikTok accounts every LO should be following appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] For countless Canadians, winter driving can mean travelling in some of the harshest road and weather conditions on Earth—up to several months a year, depending on where you live in Canada. Installing a good set of winter tires on your vehicle can make a big difference in your safety, confidence and peace of mind while you’re on the road. Compare personalized quotes from Canada’s top car insurance providers.All in under 5 minutes with ratehub.ca. Let’s get started.* Get free quotes You will be leaving MoneySense. Just close the tab to return. Whether you’re a first-time or seasoned winter tire shopper, you’ll face a nearly daunting level of selection, price points and features, when it comes time to equip your ride for the coldest months of the year. Let’s take a close look at some of the choices you’ll face, as well as some tips and considerations to help you make a better purchase decision. And for anyone who’s still on the fence about whether they need winter tires, we’ll explain why there’s really no substitute for the real thing. Why do Canadian drivers need winter tires? And how long do winter tires last? Winter tires are specifically designed for use in the nastiest winter conditions Canadian motorists will face, and they typically last five to eight winters, though exceptions and exclusions apply. Winter tires are sometimes referred to as “snow tires,” but this title is a little reductive and only tells part of the story. The rate at which your winter tires wear out is a function of many variables that include driver habits, maintenance habits, locale, road conditions, temperature, weather conditions and how promptly you remove winter tires after the season has ended. Remember, using winter tires in warm temperatures can accelerate tire wear, reducing the lifespan of the tires and costing you money. When tires are installed, maintained and cared for as directed in their owner’s manual, drivers can expect a set of quality winter tires to last several years or more. Tackling snow is a major part of winter driving in Canada, but snow is far from the only challenge winter has in store for your tires. Ice is another, as are rapidly fluctuating temperatures and road conditions, especially at times of the year when winter borders on fall and spring. The extreme cold of Canadian winters is another major challenge for regular tires. Cold temperatures stiffen the rubber, negatively affecting the tires’ ability to grip the road. Even on dry pavement, all-season or all-weather tires can struggle to deliver acceptable grip and stopping power, since their rubber compound is not optimized for maximum performance while frozen solid. Dedicated winter tires, by way of their tread design, rubber compound and specialized features, are carefully engineered for maximum performance and stability on snow and ice, and in cold and fluctuating winter temperatures. Winter tires also give your vehicle’s all-wheel drive (AWD) system and traction-enhancing features more grip to work with. Whether winter in your locale tends to be very snowy, very icy, very cold or some combination of the three, a set of dedicated winter tires is your best means of enhancing safety on the road. Fortunately, it seems that more and more drivers are taking advantage of these tires, switching from all-weather or all-season options in favour of added grip and control on snow and ice. According to a survey conducted by the Tire and Rubber Association of Canada in October 2021, nearly 70% of Canadians who drive passenger vehicles and light trucks switch to dedicated winter tires in the colder months—up from 65% the previous year. The difference between all-season, all-weather, all-terrain and winter tires A variety of multi-purpose tire options have become popular with drivers across the continent, as manufacturers come up with new features and innovations. At retailers, you’ll see tires labelled “all-season,” “all-weather,” “winter” and “all-terrain.” Photo by Skylar Kang from Pexels What are all-season tires? The tread compound (or rubber “recipe”) of an all-season tire is designed to provide grip during warmer temperatures. This makes for optimal operation during summer, fall and spring. The rubber compound on an all-season tire will stiffen up in cold weather, negatively affecting grip, performance and lengthen stopping distances. They typically last three to five years before needing replacing. All-season tires perform best in warm to hot climates, above 7 degrees Celsius, and in dry and rainy conditions. For many drivers in locales with warm, mild winters, an all-season tire may be sufficient. For drivers in locales with the extreme winter conditions characteristic of much of Canada, there are better options. One of these is the all-weather tire. What are all-weather tires? Thanks to specially designed rubber compounds that perform better in the cold, as well as clever tread patterns and other design implements, all-weather tires can be considered a winter-enhanced version of an all-season tire. With an all-weather tire, drivers can run the same set of tires year-round, even if they’ll occasionally face winter driving conditions including cool temperatures and light snowfall. If the performance of an all-weather tire is sufficient for you, you may save time and money by not having to make a seasonal tire changeover. Note, however, that all-weather tires may have a shorter lifespan than all-season tires, about three to five years instead of the eight winters. (For more about all-season versus all-weather tires, read a detailed comparison by Carpages.ca.) What are winter tires? A dedicated winter tire is the ultimate solution for driving in the cold, and on snow, slush and ice. The rubber compound and tread pattern of a dedicated winter tire is designed exclusively for use in severe conditions at sub-zero temperatures, with no compromises for use in other seasons. To sum it up: If you’ll rarely face extreme winter weather and cold temperatures, an all-season tire may be sufficient. If you’ll occasionally drive in cool temperatures and face some light snowfall and slush, an all-weather tire may be just the ticket. If you’ll be driving on

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[ad_1] Mortgage rates in the 6% range have frozen the housing market, forcing loan officers to find business outside their wheelhouses. Business is at a “dead stop,” said a retail loan officer in Michigan. With mortgage rates nearly doubling from the start of 2022, the LO, who has more than 20 years of experience in the industry, says it’s painful to see deals simply disappear. People just aren’t moving, and who’s trying to get a refi now? “I go into real estate offices and Realtors have zero listings for the week,” said the LO, who requested anonymity to protect the business of her partners. “I feel bad trying to convince somebody that it’s a good time to buy and get a mortgage. Am I really doing my fiduciary duty by trying to convince them?” During the past 18 months — when refis were low-hanging fruit — the LO closed around $3 million a month. This month, she is lucky to have $2 million in her pipeline thanks to closing deals on a construction loan, a condo and a vacant lot. And it’s going to get worse. “Next month I’m expecting to close $400,000 and nothing lined up for November,” she said. The Michigan LO’s struggling business is a microcosm of the mortgage industry, where loan officers can no longer string together deal after deal as they did during the pandemic. With rates firmly in the 6% territory as a result of the Federal Reserve’s goal to combat inflation, many LOs must hustle to win business outside their usual stomping grounds.   LOs interviewed by HousingWire said that most of their past clients don’t have a reason to sell their houses and that prospective buyers are waiting on the sidelines unless life happens — job relocations, marriage, divorce, pregnancy and death. If the first-time homeowners are not moving because they can’t afford to, it freezes up the entire lower end of the market. Mark Glebman, Caliber Home Loans Housing prices started to inch down in July, but were still 14.5% higher than last year. With mortgage rates at an elevated level, it’s no surprise that rate lock volume hit a three-year low in August.  “The premise of a mortgage rate lockdown is simple: so many American households have such low mortgage rates that some will never move once rates rise, which then locks up housing inventory,” said Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire. Mortgage rates moved up so quickly and then held for an extended period, people not moving has become a real risk, he wrote in a recent column. Mark Gelbman, a loan officer at Caliber Home Loans in Michigan, sees first-time homebuyers and owners who need to move as the biggest victims in a higher rate environment.  “Homeowners need to move because of family size and jobs,” Gelbman said. They can’t make that jump to expanding into a bigger house because of higher mortgage payments, he explained.  One of Gelbman’s clients, who has been on the market for at least a year, was priced out in 2021 due to “overbidding.” Overbidders have exited the market, but the client now faces a different problem — her monthly mortgage payment would be far outside her comfort zone.  “If the first-time homeowners are not moving because they can’t afford to, it freezes up the entire lower end of the market,” Gelbman said. Addressing a shortage of inventory is a serious concern, especially as fall and winter approaches when total inventory traditionally drops.  According to Mohtashami, the country has been experiencing a “savagely unhealthy housing market,” with inventory levels at around 1.16 million, below the 2019 range of 1.52 million to 1.93 million.  I’m going to start offering reverse mortgages because I know the average age of people there is 62. That’s going to be a new market for me Lonnie Glessner, loan officer at Draper and Kramer Mortgage Corp. The mortgage industry was on a “sugar high” in the last two years, added Lonnie Glessner, senior vice president of residential lending at Draper & Kramer Mortgage. Finding out why people are moving is important, he said.  “Just to move to a larger home, better neighborhood, people aren’t going to be doing that anymore because the payment of their mortgage is going to go up substantially.”  By virtually any measure, homeowners today are financially in a strong position. Credit scores are at record highs, and equity positions have never been stronger. Despite the market slowdown, it hardly resembles the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007, loan officers and mortgage brokers said. But for loan professionals, relief doesn’t pay the bills. The reality is sales opportunities will be fewer for the foreseeable future. Mortgage rates from the past two years were “outlier numbers,” Fahad Janvekar, loan officer at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation said. After spending a couple months at a refinance call shop, he moved to focus on purchase mortgages in November 2021.  Janvekar, like many other LOs, is looking for unique circumstances where people have to move out of necessity. While some LOs plan on moving to the broker channel for higher margins or exiting the industry, those planning to stay in the retail business are offering more loan products or getting licenses in other states to cast a wider net for borrowers.  Glessner will close his first renovation loan in 10 years and plans to tap into the market of reverse mortgages, a loan available for seniors aged 62 and over to borrow money against their home equity. One of his offices is located at Estes Park, Colorado, where he sees demand for reverse mortgages. LOs that remain will get stronger and better. I’m going to work through it. Donna Fox, an LO at Lake Michigan Credit Union “I’m going to start offering reverse mortgages because I know the average age of people there is 62. That’s going to be a new market for me,” he said.  He also closed one bank statement loan this year, a non-qualified mortgage (non-QM) loan, which was expected to take

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