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[ad_1] Swift rise to PM, but some doubt Rishi Sunak can win UK elections [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] In May, I wrote about the signs to watch for a real estate market slowdown. It’s now October, we’ve had the biggest spike in mortgage rates we’ve seen in decades, and all the signs of a slowdown are here: Inventory is rising. The price of new listings is dropping. More homes are taking price reductions. And, there are fewer immediate sales. Of course, some of what we’re seeing is exacerbated by seasonality — prices normally retreat in the fall, and there’s much less activity over the winter. But it’s clear that the dramatic shift in the market is about more than just seasonal fluctuations. The big question is: how long will the market contraction last and when should we expect things to heat back up? Let’s look at what the data can tell us: 1. Home buyers got spooked when mortgage rates passed 5.5%. Homebuyers are understandably very sensitive to mortgage interest rates. In April, May and June, when rates spiked dramatically from 3% to 6%, we saw inventory rise as buyers pulled back. Rates peaked in late June and then fell back down to around 5% in July and August. At this point, buyers actually perked up a bit and got more active. We could measure this change because inventory stopped rising nationally during those months. As soon as rates spiked above 5.5% in September to 6.5% or even 7%, buyers once again stopped abruptly. Inventory and price reductions have resumed climbing now. Key takeaway: when imagining the possible outcomes for the 2023 market, it looks like that 5.5% threshold may be very important. We could see demand return the next time mortgage rates drop. 2. There’s a chance for more pronounced inventory growth. We’ve been expecting inventory to grow through the middle of October, but if buyers continue to stay on the sidelines, then inventory could continue to grow into late October or even November, which would be very unusual. The holidays usually see far fewer sellers — most sellers wait until January to list their homes. But there are always some sellers (for a variety of reasons) that list and sell in November or December. Those reasons don’t stop, so inventory could continue to build. Key takeaway: If inventory grows late in October or into November, then a bearish signal will be lit for home prices in the future. 3. We still have a significant shortage of homes available. Given that we may see unseasonal inventory trends in the coming months, I now anticipate that we’ll end the year at around 490,000 homes for sale. This figure is ahead of last year’s home inventory levels — and slightly more than we had in 2020 — but it is still near record lows. And, it is less than half of the “normal” level of about one million homes on the market. At the moment, most homeowners are locked into lower interest rate mortgages, they have solid equity in their homes and they have jobs — they don’t have to sell. It could take several years of higher interest rates to get us back to the previous “normal” levels of active inventory. Key takeaway: There’s no tsunami of listings coming to the market. While home prices are dropping in many areas, this restricted inventory may help prevent a crash. 4. Some markets are hurting more than others. While there was still solid demand for good properties up until August, we saw some markets struggling as early as May. In particular, markets that overheated during the COVID-19 pandemic are seeing a big correction now. Take Boise, Idaho for example.  Days on market has risen from 20 days to 60 days over the past year. Price reductions are way up at 63% of the market, and the median price has dropped 20% from its peak in May. Other markets seeing a similar pattern include Austin, Texas, Phoenix and Salt Lake City. By contrast, markets that didn’t have nearly as much of a boom in the past two years, like some of the New York City suburbs, are seeing a much more modest slowdown. Key takeaway: It remains to be seen whether markets like Boise, Idaho are the canary in the coal mine, or if some markets will weather the storm fairly well, even in the face of significantly higher mortgage rates. We’ll be watching our data closely. The post Opinion: Key signals to watch in a volatile real estate market appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] U.S. student test results document pandemic's toll on learning [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] HousingWire recently spoke with Kevin Koon-Koon, chief technology officer at Grid 151, about streamlining and simplifying how mortgage lenders interact with the rest of the ecosystem. HousingWire: What are some common challenges lenders face when it comes to interacting with the rest of the mortgage ecosystem? Kevin Koon-Koon: Many mortgage lenders have invested heavily into technology, people and process improvement to modernize the homebuying journey. However, if there is not an equal investment from the other stakeholders in the transaction (i.e., appraisal, title, et al.), there is not a high return on that investment, because the ecosystem itself is only as strong as its weakest link. The lender might be the most modern and progressive thing going, but without tight coordination across the “assembly line” from front to back, the impact on the customer will be limited as the lender will effectively be stuck in a perpetual hurry up and wait. Gridbase is democratizing the power that comes with that tight coordination to all parties because the integrations across lender LOS, real estate transaction management system and title production systems is available off the shelf. Additionally, Gridbase will also enable connectivity between those same entities and the next level down of vendors and partners that support them. The tighter the coordination, the greater the efficiency, which translates into a better experience for all parties – most notably the customer. HW: In today’s uncertain market, how important is it for lenders to be able to offer borrowers an expedited timeline? KK: An expedited timeline is something the industry as a whole should aspire to achieve, and it can be a differentiator for those mortgage lenders that can consistently offer it to their customers. The connectivity and resultant efficiency that Gridbase can enable across transaction stakeholders will help to make that possible. But what is probably more important to the consumer experience than truncating the timeline is providing better transparency and certainty through the process, regardless of the timeline. In other words, not every homebuyer needs or even wants to close on day two, but it would be a significantly better experience if the homebuyer was given helpful and reliable information very early on about what timeline is feasible (for better or worse) so they can be educated and plan accordingly. Given the relatively low frequency and high value of real estate transactions for most consumers, the industry needs to do a better job connecting the dots and providing helpful and digestible information at every turn along the journey. HW: How is Gridbase helping mortgage lenders? KK: The siloed, disconnected and often legacy systems of record of our industry do not easily communicate with each other. Mortgage lenders bear the burden of building solutions to solve this complexity but are often stuck managing to the technological limitations of their partners. As a result, there are seemingly infinite workflow permutations depending on the partner and what system of record they utilize. Even when integrations are available, mortgage lenders’ technology teams are forced to learn, support and maintain multiple APIs. By centralizing all those integrations through a single point of entry, Gridbase is streamlining and simplifying how mortgage lenders interact with the rest of the ecosystem and facilitating end-to-end workflows. HW: Does Gridbase benefit other product and service providers downstream from the lender as well? KK: Gridbase is a multi-tenant platform that adds value across the entire supply chain. For example, providers of instant title product, settlement agents, RON platform vendors and the village of other providers it takes to close a loan never have to leave their system either – order management, communication and delivery are all facilitated by Gridbase. Plugging into Gridbase opens up access to an entire universe of connections where the value is delivered bi-directionally to benefit all. To learn more about Gridbase, visit grid151.com. The post How lenders can break through a siloed mortgage ecosystem appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] Dollar shakes off suspected Japan intervention; stocks brace for earnings [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Grab a new tunic for your fall closet at a great price! Today is Jane Day, where Jane.com is featuring the best prices of the year on some of their hottest items! Go here to see all the doorbusters and sales! Jane has these Women’s Larken Dolman Long Sleeve Tunics for just $15.99 shipped right now! Choose from 9 colors in sizes S-XL. These are so cute and comfy for fall, and they get great reviews! [ad_2] Source link

[ad_1] Unfazed by yen's slump, BOJ seen keeping ultra-low rates [ad_2] Source link