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Here’s Your Plan to Retire in Ten Years

[ad_1] The average American has only a little over $200,000 saved for retirement by age 65. It’s a small wonder that 50% of married couples and 70% of individuals receive 50% or more of their retirement income from Social Security. But that doesn’t have to be you. In fact, you don’t even need to wait until you’re 65 to retire. It’s possible you can retire in 10 years – as in 10 years from where you are right now. It doesn’t matter if you’re 25, 35, or 45, with the right mix of discipline, commitment, and financial strategies, it’s a goal you can reach. Many thousands of others have already done it, which means you can too. And you can do it even if you have no money saved for retirement right now. Here’s how… But first, let’s touch on a few important concepts. Determine “Your Numbers” What are your numbers? The amount of income you’ll need each year to live in retirement, and the amount of money you’ll need in your portfolio to produce that income. Let’s say you decide you’ll need $40,000 per year to live in retirement. It’s possible to determine the amount you’ll need to have saved to provide that income. It’s known loosely as the safe withdrawal rate. It’s a theory mostly, but one that’s been shown to be reliable in a number of studies. It holds that if you withdraw it no more than 4% from your investment portfolio each year, you’ll have an income for life, and your portfolio will remain intact. It works something like this: if you earn an average of 7% on your portfolio in retirement, and withdraw 4% for living expenses, that will leave 3% in the portfolio to cover inflation. If we look at the rate of inflation going back to 1990, it ranged between 1.1% to 5.3% per year, with an average of something less than 3%. Over the past 20 years the average has been closer to 2%. But since early retirement will bring long-term planning consequences, let’s go with 3% as an average. Can You Earn an Average of 7% Annually for the Rest of Your Life? Investing is all about playing the long-term averages, and that’s what works in your favor. Here’s how: The average return in stocks has been about 10% per year going all the way back to 1928. It varies quite a bit from one year to the next, but that’s the return you can expect over 20 or 30 years. Meanwhile, safe investments, like high-yield online savings accounts, are currently paying between 1% and 2% per year. But to be conservative, let’s go with 1.5% for our calculations. If you create an investment portfolio comprising 65% stocks and 35% in high-yield online savings, you can achieve a 7% average annual return. Here’s how it breaks down: 65% invested in stocks at 10% per year will generate a 6.5 % return. 35% invested in high yield online savings at 1.5% per year will generate a 0.525 return. The combination of the two will produce an average annual return of 7.025%. That will allow you to withdraw 4% each year for living expenses and retain the remaining roughly 3% in your portfolio to cover inflation. Why have only 65% in stocks when a higher allocation will get you a bigger return? If you’re planning to rely on your investments for the rest of your life, you’ll need to build some safety into your portfolio. A 35% allocation in safe assets means that even if the stock market takes a big hit, your portfolio won’t go down with it. Another important point on this front is that though interest rates are low by historical standards right now, that situation could change. If interest rates were to return to 5%, the savings allocation would make a much bigger contribution to your annual returns, and do it risk-free. Back to “Your Numbers” Now that you can see how the 4% safe withdrawal rate works mechanically, it’s time to determine your portfolio number. If you need $40,000 in income, you can determine your portfolio size by multiplying that number by 25. Why 25? If you really like math, you can divide $40,000 by 4%, and you’ll get $1 million. But for those of us who don’t like mathematical formulas and number-crunching, it’s easier to simply multiply your income number by 25 to get your portfolio size. If you multiply $40,000 by 25, you’ll get $1 million. It’s just a simpler calculation, and it’ll get you to the portfolio amount you need quickly. Commit to Your Numbers I’ve used $40,000 as an income number for retirement, but it’ll be different for everyone. For example, if you have other income sources you expect to continue in retirement you may need less. But if you want a little bit more fun and luxury in your life, you’ll probably need more. I’ve only used this number as an example. You can come up with an income number that will work for you. As you can see from my calculations above, your portfolio number will be determined by your income number. You’ll need to know both. For example, if you think you’ll need $50,000, you’ll need to build a portfolio of $1.25 million ($50,000 X 25). If you’ll need $100,000 in income, your portfolio will need to reach $2.5 million ($100,000 X 25). To reach your goal, you’ll need to work toward three objectives: Saving the money needed to build your portfolio. Earning a return on your investments that will not only help you build your portfolio, but also keep it growing once you retire. Implement spending reductions and controls that will enable you to live on what will probably be less money than you are right now. If you plan to retire in 10 years, you’ll need to commit to all three. Your retirement income and portfolio numbers must serve as a guiding light from now on. As you

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Women’s Shoes & Sandals as low as $4.80 shipped! {Ends Tonight!!}

[ad_1] This post may contain affiliate links. Read my disclosure policy here. Whoa! DSW has some amazing deals on women’s shoes right now! Through August 1st, DSW is offering 60% off select shoes when you use the promo code EXTRA60 at checkout! Plus, shipping is free for VIP reward members (free to join)! Here are some deals you can score… Get these Impo Women’s Erin Sandals for just $4.80 shipped after the code! There are 5 color options! Get these Kelly & Katie Women’s Sarafine Platform Sandals for just $4.80 shipped after the code! Get these Abella Women’s Galaxy Pumps for just $4.80 shipped after the code! Get these Crown Vintage Women’s Cirque Wedge Sandals for just $5.60 shipped after the code! Get these Steve Madden Fifer Espadrille Wedge Sandals for just $11.99 shipped after the code! Shop all the shoes here. Thanks, Hip2Save! [ad_2] Source link

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Making sense of the markets this week: July 26

[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. Earnings to drive Tesla stock into orbit? Tesla has disrupted the entire automotive industry. The global leader in electric vehicles now has greater stock market value than Ford, Chrysler and GM combined. So why is Tesla not in the S&P 500? While Tesla’s growth story has been incredible, the company left investors waiting for those profits to follow. (And we’re not even going to get into its always controversial leader Elon Musk.) Long story short, Tesla is not a S&P 500 constituent because it hasn’t been profitable for long enough. This from Fortune magazine: “To be included in the S&P 500, not only must a company have netted a (GAAP) profit over the past four quarters combined, it must also record positive net income for the most recent quarter. That means, while the electric vehicle maker has reported a profit for the past three quarters in a row, according to the rules, Tesla must also post a profit for the second quarter of 2020, when it reports those financial results.” With one or two additional quarters of profits, Tesla may find a spot in the S&P 500—and that will likely provide another lift for the stock. On Wednesday Tesla reported another profit with Q2 earnings. The company delivered $327 million in GAAP operating income. That now makes four quarters of sequential profitability. That is impressive given that its main factory in Fremont was closed for half of the quarter. Tesla is set to open three new factories on three continents later in the year. Despite headwinds, Tesla plans to deliver over half a million vehicles in 2020. Of course, that’s just a small slice of North American annual auto production, which represented 16.8 million vehicles in 2019. Still, investors continue to be attracted to the electric car growth story. Pass the punch bowl: more economic stimulus Last week’s post looked at the kick off of U.S, earnings. This time around it’s stimulus week, with another €750 billion approved in Europe. From CNN: “The European Commission will borrow the money on financial markets and distribute just under half of it — €390 billion euros ($446 billion)—as grants to the hardest hit EU states, with the rest provided as loans. Leaders also agreed a new EU budget of nearly €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) for 2021-2027, creating combined spending power of about €1.8 trillion ($2 trillion).” The U.S. has another trillion dollars on the table. Pass the punch bowl. More oxygen for the markets. The markets cheered, of course. The “safe” telco sector faces pressure on many fronts The communications and telco sectors are staples for investors—especially for investors who seek very generous dividend income. And the sector is well-situated for the new stay at home economy. After all, we need to stay connected to work and, more than ever, to stay connected with each other. I always joked that folks would choose their wi-fi over food. But the telco subsector certainly faces its challenges. “From a subscriber growth point of view it’s going to be pretty ugly,” Edward Jones analyst Dave Heger said. “All of the major players had most of their doors closed for a good chunk of the quarter.” Desjardins analyst Maher Yaghi predicts a 3.3% year-over-year decline in wireless service revenue for the industry. Average billing per user is expected to decline by 5.8% from the same quarter last year. Amid the stay-at-home economy, with no international travel for business or pleasure, roaming revenues are to be nearly wiped out for all carriers. Customers have been offered some free services and, as per analyst Dave Heger, their stores and kiosks have been closed, leading to less or no subscriber growth. That also leads to fewer device upgrades as well. For Rogers and Bell, media revenue is expected to be hit very hard. There were no live sports to broadcast. We’re also seeing that ripple effect of poor economic conditions with less advertising spend by many companies. Rogers was the first of the Big 3 to report. Here’s the headline news from their earnings report of July 22 (for the three months ended June 30, 2020): “Total revenue decreased by 17% this quarter, largely driven by 13% and 17% decreases in Wireless service and equipment revenue. There was a 50% decline in Media revenue.” Revenue (in millions) 2020 2019 Wireless $1,934 $2,244 Cable 966 997 Media 296 591 _____ ____ Total $3,155 $3,780 Adjusted earnings are down some 48% for the quarter. That is driven largely by the media unit moving to a loss. Moving forward, we might expect slow growth for quite some time. The reports suggest it may take years to get back to pre-pandemic levels of revenue and earnings. Given the uncertainties Rogers, did not provide any forward-looking guidance. I am certainly not hanging up on my telcos. I’d be more than pleased if they could simply maintain their dividends. Rogers reported some positive early signs as stores re-opened. Professional baseball and hockey are set to hit the parks and rinks, which may also give recovery an assist. COVID-19 has small businesses on the ropes The virus has changed the way we live and spend. Many small businesses were forced to close shop as a precaution against the spread of COVID, and the shift in our shopping habits saw us turn away from others. Year over year, spending is down an average of 25% from March to June of 2020. SOURCE: Canadian Federation of Independent Business Only 26% of Canadian small businesses report that it’s business as usual when it comes to sales—this according to a recent (and sobering) report from the Canadian Federation of Independent Business. SOURCE: Canadian Federation of Independent Business Small business is a main driver of the economy. It employs more than half of the private sector workforce and accounts for 52% of private sector GDP. Right now, they could more than use

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The Medicine of Mustachianism (a guest post from Marla)

[ad_1] Camp Mustache Seattle, one of Chancellor Taner’s ongoing assignments. Foreword from Mr. Money Mustache : Marla is a long-time friend who I met on one the very first of the Ecuador Chautauqua trips. Since then, she has served as the Chancellor of Fun in the MMM organization, which is an informal and haphazard group of entirely volunteer planners who sometimes create interesting events. Marla wrote this on March 18th, which makes her optimistic perspective from that moment in time even more appropriate today as we emerge from the chaos. The Medicine of MustachianismBy Marla Taner I love face punches.  I love the shockingly simple math of early retirement.  I love that we all enjoy debating the merits of financial independence versus retiring early.  And I love that in the end, this blog is not really about money.   And it’s not because my portfolio just lost more than 30% and it’s not because my friends and family are enjoying their moment of schadenfreude.  I wrote this blog post because when the rest of the world is going crazy all around you and you suddenly realize with clarity what the whole point of Mustachianism is, you want to share it with everyone you care about as soon as possible. Yes, it’s true.  After nearly seven years of “retirement”, and watching When Harry Met Sally* for the 1000th time while self-isolating, it took the Corona Virus to inspire my first blog post. First, a dose of confession.  I don’t always follow MMM’s advice.  In particular, I love politics and I watch way too much of the 24 hour news cycle on TV.  I justify it with all the usual excuses: it’s important, I want to be informed, this is an incredible time in history.  But, as with much of MMM’s sage advice, while I’m doing what he recommends against, his voice is in my head (or his virtual fist is in my face) reminding me why this is a bad idea.  I am still a work in progress. Since the news cycle shifted from those ubiquitous tweets from you-know-who to worldwide calamity, it has become abundantly clear that I need to turn off the news.   My palms are sweating, my pulse is racing, it’s hard to sleep. You just might feel this way too. Here’s some medicine for that: The Low Information Diet Second, take a a dose from the optimism gun by reading The Practical Benefits of Outrageous Optimism. Finally, learn what to do (and not to do) in times like these by figuring out How Big Is Your Circle of Control. We are the lucky ones.  What I earned during my career was far greater than the average world income of $5000 per annum.  By being frugal and running against the herd, I saved more than 50% of my income over a 15 year career.  My expenses are low. I can make my expenses lower if I really need to. I have the luxury of staying home and gathering my loved ones close during these difficult times.  And even though my net worth is suddenly, shockingly lower; I have time on my side. Let’s remind ourselves of the stock market chart throughout history.   Inflation adjusted S&P500 price, (not even including dividends!) Image source Macrotrends.net Yes, I realize that being lucky does not insulate us against hardship.  We are not immune to sickness or loss, disability or discrimination, tragedy can still strike.  But, let’s be grateful for what we have, and remind ourselves of our resilience. After all, even if the worst happens, we’ll still be okay.  In fact, my favorite post was this one that inspired me to pull the trigger on FIRE in 2013: If I Woke Up Broke Finally, a dose of what’s really important.  Yes, the whole point of Mustachianism. MMM retired at just 30 years old because he wanted to be the best Dad he could be.  He didn’t “retire” to write this blog, start a movement and change the world. He realized his needs and his wants were small.  Being a great Dad didn’t mean constantly travelling the world, or competing for the best private schools or private equestrian leagues.  It was taking his son on adventures in the neighborhood, teaching him to ride a bike, building forts, playing games, giving him the gift of his time.  And, when you ask MMM now what he’s figured out about happiness, he tells us that to have a great life, you just need to put together a string of enough great days. While everyone’s great day is different, Pete’s includes time outside, exercise, time with family, socializing with friends and some hard work.  And so, as we all face this global pandemic together, let’s think about what makes our own great day.  Chances are, it doesn’t cost much. The ones you want to spend it with might be locked inside with you right now.  The great outdoors still beckons with singing birds and the first signs of spring. There are great meals to cook, books to read, movies to watch, and chores to catch up on.  Our homes have never been this clean. And if we can’t meet up with friends in person, let’s call, text or video chat with each other.   On a final note, let’s thank our amazing health care professionals on the front lines, those that are making sure our shelves are stocked with necessary food and supplies and all the “caremongerers”.   Mustachianism really is the best medicine.** *thanks Nora Ephron. **with all due respect to laughter. My thanks to Mr. Money Mustache for providing his favorite stalker with this platform to share my thoughts.  Marla Taner met MMM in Ecuador at the first Chautauqua and has continued to stalk him at Mustachian and FIRE events ever since.  You may or may not be able to find her on Facebook. MMM here again: I am going to try to invite Marla back here to respond to any questions here in the comments.

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Making sense of the markets this week: August 3

[ad_1] Each week, Cut the Crap Investing founder Dale Roberts shares financial headlines and offers context for Canadian investors. Gold outshines itself Gold stole the headlines this week. That can happen when an infamous asset takes out its previous all-time highs.  Last Sunday, gold made another push and hit its all-time high above $1,920. By Friday, July 31, the price had moved above $1,990. (Gold is priced in USD.)  Gold is gaining based on general uncertainties in these, well, uncertain times. There is also the fear of inflation. Many investors also point to the prolific money printing from central banks and the ballooning deficits and deficits. In this MoneySense post, I touched on Canada’s pending $1-trillion debt, and the similarly large number representing proposed stimulus in the U.S.  MoneySense contributor Bryan Borzykowski recently pondered whether it’s time to buy gold again:  “A lot of people are excited about gold today because of how much debt countries around the world are accumulating. The more leverage these countries take on, the more concern there is about currency devaluation, while gold remains worth what it’s worth.”  Portfolio managers who are fans of gold will suggest a 5% to 10% portfolio weighting. As Bryan suggested in his article, if gold gains are modest, that kind of allocation won’t give you much of an overall bump.  That said, we might remember that gold increased almost tenfold during the period of stagflation of the 1970s and early 80s. During the Great Depression, the price of gold more than doubled in value in the early years of the stock market crash from 1929. In modern times, from 2000 and  moving through the dot-com bust, the financial crisis and the recent pandemic crisis, gold has been one of the best performing assets. (A good source for gold performance charts is macrotrends.com.) Detractors of gold will, of course, point to the long periods (decades) when gold has lost value. Proponents of gold as a portfolio asset will remind us that, similarly, insurance coverage is a cost that may not seem to have a return—until you need it.  Investors can hold ETFs that invest directly in physical gold. One can also own ETFs that invest in baskets of gold stocks. And more experienced investors may hold individual gold stocks. To create income or to rebalance their portfolio when gold skyrockets (as it is doing now), the investor would simply sell some of those units or shares.  And the “new gold” polishes its image Bitcoin caught its own share of headlines this week. According to charts at coindesk, Bitcoin moved from $9,400 to more than $11,200 over the last several days.  Bitcoin is trying hard to make a case for itself as a core asset. Of course let the debate begin. We’ll see you in the comment section. (For background, check out this MoneySense post.)  For the record, I do hold a very modest position in Bitcoin. I also hold some gold ETFs and gold stocks. Warren Buffett, the world’s greatest investor, just nibbling When the pandemic brought on the dramatic stock market correction in late February, many investors looked to Warren Buffett. Of course Mr. Buffett is often recognized as the world’s greatest investor. He has made a hobby by beating the U.S. stock market with regularity, and by a very wide margin.  But in February and beyond, Buffett was eerily silent. There was no typical “U.S.A.! U.S.A.!” cheerleading and assurances. In fact, Mr. Buffett offered incredible caution. He was preparing for the worst and even thought the massive cash pile of Berkshire Hathaway might be needed to shore up existing businesses.  Buffett’s most famous quote might be:  “Be greedy when others are fearful.”  So it’s interesting that, in light of the pandemic, Buffett’s first move was to sell. He sold his entire position in four major U.S. airlines.  “The world has changed for the airlines. And I don’t know how it’s changed and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way. I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits,” Buffett said in May 2020. At the time, he stated that Berkshire expected some of their businesses (wholly-owned subsidiaries) to not survive. The cash pile, resulting from that airline stock selloff, might be needed to patch holes in the portfolio.  “We don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem, we prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum,” Buffett said. His first notable buy was a near $10-billion purchase of pipeline assets from Dominion Energy. That took place in early July. It was announced that Buffett has also been buying back shares of Berkshire Hathaway, estimated at a total of $5.3 billion.  And this week Berkshire Hathaway did more of the same ‘ol, same ‘ol —buying more shares in Buffett’s favourite bank, Bank of America. The additional $1.2 billion in share purchases raised the ownership stake to 11.5%, according to the New York Times. That is Berkshire’s second largest stock holding after Apple.  What can we glean from Buffett’s recent moves? The most important aspect might simply be that he’s no longer sitting on that overstuffed wallet. We might take that as a sign of at least some confidence in the stock markets and economic recovery.  It’s a start. Is the Oracle of Omaha just getting warmed up?  U.S.-dollar downer The almighty U.S. dollar is starting to cower. In fact, Goldman Sachs even suggests the its status as the global reserve currency is at risk. (Backgrounder: As a reserve currency, many global financial assets and commodities such as oil are priced in, and traded in U.S. dollars. Those institutions and central banks around the world need to hold U.S. dollars.)  From that Bloomberg post: “The greenback faces several risks, including that the U.S. Federal Reserve may shift toward an ‘inflationary bias,’ a rise in political uncertainty and growing concerns surrounding another spike in coronavirus infections in the country, according to Goldman strategists. They added that the debt buildup as

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