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[ad_1] All eyes have been on the Federal Reserve as the housing industry tries to account for the Fed-driven slowdown of the housing market. As a result, lenders have been closely watching and planning for how this impacts their portfolios and business given the increase in mortgage interest rates. To help shed some light on how companies are strategically navigating the economic changes in the market, we’re hosting a Q&A with Alec Hollis, managing director at ALM First Financial Advisors, during the Vanguard Forum at HousingWire Annual. HW Media CEO Clayton Collins will join Hollis on stage to dig into what Hollis is witnessing when it comes to the impact of the current rate environment and what a lot of his client discussions have been focused on. For background, ALM First provides valuation and investment advisory services for its clients. Hollis will also touch on two of the biggest topics that lenders are concerned about — liquidity and MSR hedging. This includes addressing the pros and cons that he is seeing in the space and how it is impacting IMBs. Here’s a quick preview of what Hollis will be covering in his Q&A. HousingWire: What else would you highlight when it comes to the biggest risks that lenders are facing right now and what they should be watching for? Alec Hollis: Absolutely. Last point would probably be a broad one — focus on what you can control. This includes establishing conservative policies and procedures. Some lenders try to “over-automate” functions, which can be a pitfall of attempting to scale. Scaling can be achieved through creating strong policies and procedures — a process. If people follow a process then the results become more consistent. MCD example. But this should include ensuring flexibility is possible when it’s required. Ensuring your analytics are time-tested is also vital in a fast-moving market. This includes pull-through and hedge ratios. Back-testing hedging relationships — by taking investor price relative to a TBA — can be valuable in ensuring your hedge ratios are set properly. “Empirical durations”. Don’t miss Hollis’ Q&A at HousingWire Annual to get an even deeper breakdown of these essential concepts. There has been a lot of changes in the housing space, but with advice from leaders like Hollis, companies can find ways to remain successful.  HousingWire Annual Why you should attend HW Annual Oct. 3-5 in Scottsdale Don't miss the Vanguard Forum at HW Annual Oct. 4 Rene Rodriguez announced as the Vanguard Forum keynote speaker at HW Annual Oct. 4 Alec Hollis will be speaking at The Vanguard Forum, an invitation-only, sub-segment of HousingWire Annual on Oct. 4. All invited guests are HousingWire Vanguard Award winners and other high-growth C-Suite professionals. Join us at HW Annual for the content, connections and insights you need to win in this environment. To register, go here, and if you have questions about this forum or how to get invited to the Vanguard Forum, reach out to events@hwmedia.com. The post Alec Hollis to speak at HW Annual Oct. 4 appeared first on HousingWire. [ad_2] Source link

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[ad_1] You think things are bad in the housing market now? Stick around and see if mortgage rates climb into the 7% range. If it happens, the current origination forecast of $2.2 trillion in 2023 will look awfully rosy. Even the most battle-tested industry players are preparing for one of the strongest housing market corrections in decades. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear message during a press conference following the announcement of the central bank’s decision to hike the federal funds rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday: the ongoing housing market correction, which brought the largest mortgage rates increase in four decades, is far from at an end. Mortgage-backed securities are right about the worst place on the duration spectrum for this move. Freddie’s weekly survey is hopelessly low today – actual 30-year-fixed rates are well over 6.5% now.   Matt Graham, CEO of MBS Live “Builders are having a hard time finding lots, workers and materials,” Powell said. “For the longer term, what we need is supply and demand to get better aligned, so house prices go up at a more reasonable pace and people can afford houses. Probably, the housing market needs to go to a correction to get to that place.” So far, the tightening monetary policy led the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.29% this week, up 27 basis points from the previous week, the Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed on Thursday. A year ago at this time, rates averaged 2.86%. “The housing market continues to face headwinds as mortgage rates increase again this week, following the 10-year Treasury yield’s jump to its highest level since 2011,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Impacted by higher rates, house prices are softening, and home sales have decreased. However, the number of homes for sale remains well below normal levels.”  Some market watchers were hoping to see Powell express some willingness to tone down the tightening. These observers were based solely on the expectation that existing policies will have the desired effect to bring inflation closer to the 2% target, according to Matt Graham, founder and CEO at MBS Live.  “But the biggest takeaway for the mortgage industry is that Powell remained completely unflinching in his commitment to hike rates as much as it takes to tackle inflation,” Graham said. “Between yesterday afternoon and today, the entire financial market is in the throes of adjusting to that new reality. Mortgage-backed securities are right about the worst place on the duration spectrum for this move. Freddie’s weekly survey is hopelessly low today – actual 30-year-fixed rates are well over 6.5% now.”  My guess is that traditional lenders will most likely be charging points to stay in the high 6s or pushing into the 7s now. Blake Bianchi, CEO of Future Mortgage Where did the ‘correction’ bring us? Freddie Mac’s index compiles only purchase mortgage rates reported by lenders during the past three days. Other estimates, however, show that rates are even higher.  The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 6.62% on Thursday afternoon, up 20 basis points compared to the previous day, Mortgage News Daily reported. According to Bankrate.com, which surveys from the 10 largest banks, the primary mortgage rates are currently hovering around 6.4%. Rates are up over 300 basis points year-over-year, the largest trailing 12-month increase since the early 1980s, analysts from the investment banking firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods wrote in a report on Wednesday.  “This creates a very challenging environment for volume-sensitive businesses such as mortgage originators and title insurers,” the analysts said. “Given the magnitude of the move in rates, we think there could be a downside to current estimates for industry volumes in 2023.”  Fannie Mae’s latest forecast, which was published this week, projects total mortgage origination activity at $2.44 trillion in 2022 and $2.17 trillion in 2023.  Owners may be locked into their existing homes as mortgage rates rise, and the 3% rates from last year may not be back anytime soon. Nadia Evangelou, an economist at NAR Wwith rates at this level, the entire mortgage market is 150-200 basis points (or more) out of the money to refinance, KBW analysts said. In addition, purchase activity has also declined materially in recent weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association purchase index is currently 21% below 2021 levels and 26% below 2019 levels.  To understand the impact on borrowers, this week’s increase in mortgage rates to 6.29% resulted in a monthly payment on a $400,000 loan of about $2,470, compared to $1,660 a year ago, according to Nadia Evangelou, National Association of Realtors senior economist & director of forecasting, said in a statement.  “Owners may be locked into their existing homes as mortgage rates rise, and the 3% rates from last year may not be back anytime soon. While the nation suffers from a severe housing shortage, lower mobility can make housing inventory even tighter and cause home prices to continue escalating.”   However, the median-priced home is worth about $80,000 more than in 2020 and $200,000 more than in 2012. “Thus, having positive equity in one’s home may ease the effects of rising mortgage rates on mobility.” Where is the housing market heading?  Looking ahead, loan officers have started to expect mortgage rates at the 7% level, a sign that the housing market correction will bring even greater affordability challenges in the year to come.  A few years of 5-7% interest rates on mortgages are going to be good for the economy, great for buyers, as demand becomes less insane, and more sustainable long-term Sean Grapevine, Branch Manager for UMortgage “After the Fed raised rates yesterday, we now see the 10-year Treasury up today at 3.697%. My guess is that traditional lenders will most likely be charging points to stay in the high 6’s or pushing into the 7’s now,” said Blake Bianchi, founder and CEO at Boise-based brokerage Future Mortgage. “Mortgage brokers like us are most likely in the low-mid 6s on a primary

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